For the sake of simplicity, taxes, commissions and other trading costs have
been omitted from the discussions and strategies in this discussion; these
should be taken into account when making your investment decisions. The
strategies are based on hypothetical situations and should only be considered as
examples of potential trading approaches.
Investor Expects Falling 5-year Interest Rates
Strategy II - Sell FVX call spread to profit from declining rates.
Forecast:
Investor Expects Falling 5-year Treasury note yields.
Objective:
To profit from a decline in 5-year interest rates.
Strategy:
Sell FVX call spread.
Assume as before that FVX is still at
45.0, and a decline is projected in the 5-year interest rates over the
next three months from 4.5% to 4.2%. Instead of paying for puts, the
investor would like to use a strategy with limited risk that brings in
premium. A strategy to use could be to sell the call spread. Selling a
call spread involves selling a call and buying a call against it with a
higher strike but the same expiration. The most that can be made is the
premium received for selling the spread. The maximum risk is the
difference between the strike prices less premium received.
Example:
For simplicity's sake the investor will sell 1 three-month FVX 40 call and
buy 1 three-month 45 call. The premium received for this spread position
is;
- Sell 1 three-month 40 call at 5-.375 x
100=$537.50
- Buy 1 three-month 45 call at 1-.375 x 100 =
-137.50
- Total Premium Received: $400.00
The total premium received is the maximum profit
that can be made. The maximum risk is the difference between the strikes
less the premium received.
- Long Strike: 45
- Short Strike: -40
- Difference: 5
- Premium Received: -4
- Maximum Risk: 1
The maximum risk is 1 x $100 or $100 for this
position. The breakeven on this position is the 44 (40 short strike + 4
premium received).
Settlement Value At or Below Short Call
Strike (40):
If 5-year Treasury bond yields do decline and the
settlement value for FVX is at 39.50 at expiration (interest rates at
3.95%), the FVX 40 and 45 call would both expire worthless and the
investor keeps the total premium received, $400. This is the maximum
profit that could be earned.
Settlement Value Between Short
Call Strike Price (40) and Breakeven (44):
If by expiration the
5-year Treasury yields do decrease to 4.1% which equals a settlement
value of 41, the spread seller would be assigned on his short call
position. His long position would expire worthless. He would deliver the
amount by which the settlement value is above the strike price. The
seller of the spread would give up some of the premium received but not
all of it.
- Settlement Value: 41
- Less Short Strike Price: -40
- Original Premium Received: $400
- Less Amount to Deliver(1 x $100 x 1 contract):
-100
- Profit: $300
Settlement Value Between Breakeven (44) and Long
Call Strike (45):If at expiration, the yield on the FVX is 4.45% or the
settlement value is 44.50, the spread seller will be assigned on the
short side. The seller would have to deliver more than the $400
originally received but would not be paying the maximum risk of $100.
- Settlement Value: 44.50
- Less Short Strike Price: -40
- Amount to Deliver: 4.50
- Amount to Deliver(4.50 x $100 x 1 call): $450
- Less Original Premium Received: -400
- Loss: $ 50
Settlement Value At or Above Long Call Strike
Price (45):
If the settlement value is at 46, the yield on the
5-year Treasury is at 4.6%, the holder would have lost 1, the difference
between the strikes (5) less the premium received for selling the spread
(4). However, no matter how high interest rates rise the most that can
be lost is $100, the difference between the strikes less the premium
received.
- Settlement Value: 46
- Less Long Strike Price: -45
- Amount Received:1
- Settlement Value: 46
- Less Short Strike: -40
- Amount to Deliver: 6
The spread seller would pay out $600 (6 x $100 x 1
call) for the assignment of his short call and would receive $100 (1 x
$100 x 1 call) for exercising his long call for a net cost of $500.
- Amount to Deliver (See Above): $500
- Less Original Premium Received:-400
- Maximum Loss: $100