For the sake of simplicity, taxes, commissions and other trading costs have
been omitted from the discussions and strategies in this discussion; these
should be taken into account when making your investment decisions. The
strategies are based on hypothetical situations and should only be considered as
examples of potential trading approaches.
Investor Expects Rising 30-year Interest Rates
Strategy II - Sell TYX put spread to profit in a rising market.
Forecast:
Investor Expects Moderate Rise in 30-year Treasury Bond Yields.
Objective:
To profit from an increase in rates by bringing in income.
Strategy:
Sell TYX put spread.
If a rise in the 30-year Treasury bond
yield is expected, an investor may choose to sell a TYX put spread to
increase income. Selling a put spread involves selling a put and buying
a put with a lower strike price, both with the same expiration. The
purpose in selling the put spread is to limit risk while receiving
premium. The most that can be lost is the difference between the two
strike prices less the premium received and the most that can be made is
the premium received for selling the spread. If the investor simply sold
puts outright he would have received more premium but with significant
risk.
Example:
Assume, as before that TYX is still at
62.50, and a rise in 30-year interest rates from 6.25% to 7.0% is
anticipated in the next three months. For simplicity's sake the investor
will sell 1 three-month TYX 67.50 put and purchase 1 three-month 62.50
put. The premium received for this spread position is:
- Sell 1 three-month 67.50 put at 4.875 x 100 =
$487.50*
- Buy 1 three-month 62.50 put at 1.25x 100 =
-125.00
- Total Premium Received = $362.50
*These puts are trading at a discount to parity
due to the European-style exercise (the options cannot be exercised
until expiration).
The total premium received is the maximum
profit that can be made. The maximum risk is the difference between the
strikes less the premium received.
- Short Strike: 67.50
- Long Strike:62.505
- Difference: 5
- Premium Received: -3.625
- Maximum Risk: 1-.375
The risk for this position is 1-.375 x 100 or
$137.50. The breakeven on this position is 63.875. The breakeven is
calculated by subtracting the premium received, 3.625 from the short
67.50 strike price.
Settlement Value At or Above Short Put
Strike Price (67.50):
If 30-year Treasury bond yields do rise
and the settlement value for TYX is at 68.50 at expiration (interest
rates at 6.85%), the TYX 62.50 put and the 67.50 put both expire
worthless and the investor keeps the total premium received, $362.50.
This is the maximum profit that could be earned. This would be the
result for any TYX settlement value at or above 67.50.
Settlement
Value Between Short Put Strike Price (67.50) and Breakeven (63.875):
If by expiration the 30-year Treasury yields do increase to 6.7 which
equals a settlement value of 67, the spread seller would be assigned on
his short put position and his long position would expire worthless. He
would deliver the amount by which the settlement value is below the
strike price. The seller of the spread would give up some of the premium
received but not all of it.
- Short Strike Price:67.50
- Less Settlement Value: -67
- Amount to Deliver:.50
- Amount Rec'd for Selling Spread: $362.50
- Less Amount to Deliver (.50 x $100 x 1
contract):-50.00
- Profit: $312.50
Settlement Value Between Long Put Strike Price
(62.50) and Breakeven (63.875):
If at expiration, the yield on
the TYX is 6.3% (the settlement value is 63), the spread seller would be
assigned on the short side. The seller would have to give back some of
the premium received.
- Short Strike Price: 67.50
- Less Settlement Value:-63
- Amount to Deliver: 4.50
- Amount to Deliver(4.50 x $100 x 1 put): $450.00
- Less Original Premium Received:-362.50
- Loss: $ 87.50
Settlement Value At or Below Long Put Strike Price
(62.50):
If the settlement value is at 60 (the yield on the
30-year Treasury is at 6.0%), the spread seller would have lost 1-.375,
the difference between the strikes (5) less the premium received for
selling the spread (3.625). However, no matter how low interest rates
decline the most that can be lost is $137.50, the difference between the
strikes less the premium received.
- Short Strike Price: 67.50
- Less Settlement Value: -60
- Amount to Deliver: 7.50
- Long Strike Price: 62.50
- Less Settlement Value: -60
- Amount Received: 2.50
- Amount Delivered: 7.50
- Less Amount Received:-2.50
- Net Delivered: 5
The spread seller would pay out $750 (7.50 x $100
x 1 put) for the assignment of his short put and would receive $250
(2.50 x $100 x 1 put) for exercising his long put for a net cost of
$500.
- Net Delivered (See Above): $500
- Less Original Premium Received: 362.50
- Maximum Loss: $137.50
As the settlement value declines below 62.50 the
amount to be delivered will increase but so will the amount paid to the
investor. The net amount will always be $500, the difference between the
two strikes. Therefore, the risk is limited to $137.50, the difference
between the strikes less the premium received for selling the put
spread.