Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.27.15

  • Jul 3, 2017, 10:17 AM

    Predicting Market Tops and Bottoms is a Loser's Game

    Predicting Market Tops and Bottoms is a Loser's Game

    As the markets continue to move higher amid low volatility, we hear the constant chatter of market tops.  Naturally, these predictions rarely come with any date applied, setting up these foolish prognostications to be right 'at some point in the future', just like how a broken clock is right twice a day.  For investors, these predictions of impending loss and perhaps doom are useless and random, not based in fact or reason.  They are attention grabbers in the media, because they[...]

  • Feb 19, 2017, 3:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup - 2/19/2017

    The Weekly Options News Roundup - 2/19/2017

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets.      A Historical View of Histograms In recent weeks, investor interest in strategies that protect portfolios from large losses has begun to rise.  One of the strategies that can be used to manage downside risk, is the iron butterfly strategy, which is benchmarked by the CBOE S&P[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Nov 14, 2016, 12:45 PM

    BigTrends.com Post-Election Weekly Market Outlook

    BigTrends.com Post-Election Weekly Market Outlook

    To call last week as wild week would still be an understatement of epic proportions. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained 3.8% last week, which was big, but it was a victory made even more amazing by the fact that a Trump victory was supposed to be bad for the market (and for a few hours before Wednesday's open, it was very bad for stocks). A few hours after Donald Trump was confirmed as the next President though, the S&P 500 was not only up, but had cleared a key technical hurdle. The bulls don't[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Aug 29, 2016, 11:26 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - August 29, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - August 29, 2016

    Unable to resist the weight of its 9% gain since its late-June low, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) finally started to buckle last week. The index only lost 0.68% for the five-day span, but that was the worst weekly performance since June, and could end up serving as the profit-taking excuse some traders have been waiting for. We'll look at the matter in more detail after a closer look at last week's and this week's economic numbers. They matter more than usual now, with the prospect of rising interest[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Aug 8, 2016, 10:56 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Upside Breakout Amid VIX Lows

    Weekly Market Outlook - Upside Breakout Amid VIX Lows

    Against the odds, though with the bigger-picture tide, last Tuesday's alarming intraday pullback ended up being just the regrouping the bulls needed to finally stage a breakthrough rally.  On the heels of a better-than-expected jobs report for July, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) pushed up and off a key short-term moving average line to finally punch through a resistance line that had been nagging it since mid-July. Do we take the clue at face value and treat it as a breakout?  Or, was[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jul 18, 2016, 10:53 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - A Breakout Amid High Valuations

    Weekly Market Outlook - A Breakout Amid High Valuations

    The market (the S&P 500 anyway) rekindled the rally early last week, finally pushing through the resistance of its May 2015 peak at 2135 to move to a high of 2169. But, it didn't end the week with the same zeal it started it with. In fact, on Friday the index lost a little ground, and logged the first lower low in almost two weeks. A sign that the weight of the 8% gain over the past three weeks and the 16% gain since February has become too much? Possibly. Yet, that doesn't inherently mean[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 16, 2016, 10:45 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - On The Verge Of A Bigger Pullback?

    Weekly Market Outlook - On The Verge Of A Bigger Pullback?

    The market may have started the previous week on a bullish foot, but it certainly didn't end the week on one. Not only did the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) log three straight losing days to end last week's trading, but it broke below a key support level it couldn't really afford to break. Stocks still aren't past the point of no return yet, but it's alarmingly close. We'll dissect the odds below after running down last week's and this week's major economic headlines. Economic Data Not a lot of economic[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Apr 18, 2016, 9:49 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Valuation Concerns Creep In

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Valuation Concerns Creep In

    The market didn't end last week on a particularly bullish foot, but it doesn't matter  - it started the week on such a bullish foot the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) was still up 1.6% for the week, and still above a fairly important resistance line. The strength still doesn't outright guarantee stocks will keep moving higher. In fact, even if stocks were in a great technical position to keep edging higher, we're once again running into a valuation headwind. We'll dissect all of it below, right[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Apr 11, 2016, 9:45 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Hawkish Fed?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Hawkish Fed?

    It's too soon to assume the worst yet.  On the other hand, it's not too soon to prepare for the worst even as we hope for the best. Last week, stocks lost ground for the second time in three weeks.  More than that, the major indices are now putting a great deal of pressure on some critical support levels.  Worse still, we're seeing clear signs of waning bullish momentum.  That's not to say that bearish momentum has developed yet.  It is to say, however, this is how bearish[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Mar 27, 2016, 10:43 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/21 - 3/24

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/21 - 3/24

    The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up 2% last week after making a little run at closing the 2016 gap with the Russell 1000 (RUI).  RUT is now down just about 5% for 2016.  There was a glimmer of hope for large caps this time last week, but RUI gave up 0.70% last week and is now 0.65% lower for 2016. The concern for small cap stocks continues to rise relative to large cap stocks in the form of the ratio of the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) relative to VIX.  The gap between the[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Jan 25, 2016, 9:57 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Reasons To Be Optimistic Here

    Weekly Market Outlook - Reasons To Be Optimistic Here

    After a scary start to the shortened trading week, Wednesday's intraday turnaround followed-through quite nicely all the way to the end of Friday's trading. By the time the closing bell rang that day, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) had gained 1.4% after being down as much as 3.6% at one point on Wednesday. Better still, there's room for the market to keep rising. It's still too soon to say this is the beginning of what will be a prolonged rally; there remains an entanglement of resistance lines[...]