VIX Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Morning Call | Jul 27, 2017, 6:28 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 7/27/2017

    CBOE Morning Call 7/27/2017

    Big Picture The FOMC didn’t offer up any surprises yesterday afternoon and the stock market reacted with a giant yawn.  VIX finally put in a new all-time intraday low hitting 8.84 as the FOMC announcement was just about to hit the tape.  Before the day was done VIX had worked its way up to 9.60.  The odds of a rate hike in December still remains at about 50%, but I’m taking the no hike side of that bet.  It will take very little in the form of negative news for the[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 26, 2017, 6:58 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 7/26/2017

    CBOE Morning Call 7/26/2017

    Big Picture Today there will be lots of talk about the FOMC, but the chances of anything truly unexpected coming this afternoon are very low.  This week, I have heard about a dozen people state that when we get an FOMC announcement the stock market goes up.  I was wondering if part of yesterday’s strength could be attributed to that mindset.  Remember when everyone is like minded, it may be time to go the other way.  We are beginning to hear grumblings of who may be appointed[...]

  • Jul 25, 2017, 4:18 PM

    We Know VIX is Low - The Why and What May Be Next

    We Know VIX is Low - The Why and What May Be Next

    Regardless of how you state it, VIX is low.  Today VIX got as low as 9.04 which is the second lowest intraday low on record.  The lowest print for VIX came on December 27, 1993 with a low of 8.89.  I could waste a thousand more words describing how low VIX is relative to history, but instead of doing that I’d like to dive a bit into what it means.  VIX is low, but market volatility is low as well.  What I mean by that is the realized volatility of the S&P 500 is[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 25, 2017, 6:57 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/25/2017

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/25/2017

    Big Picture Today is the first day of a two-day FOMC meeting.  As a gentle reminder, there are S&P 500 (SPX) options expiring on the close tomorrow which are perfect for expressing an opinion about the potential market reaction (or lack thereof) to the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon.  Also, the earnings calendar is so heavy for the next three days it should be on a weight loss reality show. Overnight / Pre-Market Japanese stocks were slightly lower overnight.  Both the EuroStoxx[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 22, 2017, 3:10 PM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 07/17/2017 - 7/21/2017

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 07/17/2017 - 7/21/2017

    VIX finished the week just off all-time lows and the VXST - VIX - VXV - VXMT curve shifted lower.  This is a result of realized volatility for S&P 500 price action remaining low and there not appearing to be any speed bumps on the horizon for the financial markets.  VVIX dipped below 80.00 to finish the week and TYVIX is near all-time lows despite there being an FOMC meeting this Wednesday.  The long funds continue to suffer (discussed a little more shortly) and the short funds[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 22, 2017, 3:01 PM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/17/2017 - 7/21/2017

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/17/2017 - 7/21/2017

    Small and large cap index finished the week in what I will call a statistical tie up about 0.5%.  For the year the Russell 1000 (RUI) is now up over 10% while the Russell 2000 has gained a respectable 5.8% in 2017.  We are early in the 3rd quarter of the year, but so far RUI is up 1.98% versus RUT 1.45%.  With VIX so low the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility (RVX) premium to VIX has popped up a bit.  I’m attributing more to low VIX than high small cap volatility.  It[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 21, 2017, 6:54 PM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 7/17/2017 - 7/21/2017

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 7/17/2017 - 7/21/2017

    VIX closed Friday a tad shy of an all-time low while the S&P 500 continues to push higher having gained just over ½ a percent last week.  The curve below does appear steep, but the context of VIX being so low should be taken into account. One trader came into the VIX pit mid-day on Friday with what could be considered a massive trade.  With VIX at 9.76 and the standard October contract at 13.70 someone came in with a three-leg bullish trade on VIX.  They sold 262,441 VIX[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 19, 2017, 7:37 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/19/2017

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/19/2017

    Big Picture Earnings season continues with results being somewhat mixed so far.  The economic calendar is fairly light this week.  We do get the EIA Crude Oi stockpile change numbers at 9:30 Chicago time – expectations are for a drop of 3.214 million, last week’s number was down 7.564 million.  Tonight, the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decision (think FOMC in Japan) with expectations for the no change maintaining a short term policy interest rate of[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 17, 2017, 8:09 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/17/2017

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/17/2017

    Big Picture VIX has everyone’s attention after closing on Friday at 9.51 which is the lowest level since December 1993, but also the lowest non-holiday week close on record.  The S&P 500 finished Friday at an all time high and is now up over 10% for the year.  The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) vs. VIX ratio climbed last week as the Russell 2000 under performed the S&P 500 by about 50 bp.  This ratio is worth watching for an early indication that small cap[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 16, 2017, 10:27 AM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017

    Stocks had a nice week with many indexes achieving all-time highs.  Small cap stocks in the form of the Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 0.92%, but this rise was outpaced by the Russell 1000 (RUI) which was up 1.4% for the week.  Lately I’ve been fixated on the relationship between the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) and VIX.  The RVX premium had been shrinking which led me to think a resurgence in relative performance for small caps was on the horizon.  This trend reversed[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 16, 2017, 10:24 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017

    VIX finished the week at the lowest close since 1993, but the two lower closes came during a holiday week so I’m considering consulting with other VIX watchers with respect to if this is basically an all-time low.  Note the dramatic move in the July contract that goes off the board on the open Monday. The most exciting activity we got from VIX came around lunchtime on Tuesday.  Many traders may have miss VIX running to the mid-11’s and the July contract trading around 12.50. [...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 16, 2017, 8:54 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/10/2017 - 7/14/2017

    We only have data going back to the 2007 – 2008 period for the non-VIX SPX related indexes on the diagram below.  VXST, VXV, and VXMT all made all-time lows, based on the history we have to work with, on the close Friday.  VIX closing at 9.51 was the third lowest on record.  However, the two instances of lower closing prices for VIX occurred on December 22nd and 23rd of 1993 (9.38 and 9.41).  In December 1993, the 24th was a market holiday as Christmas fell on the 25th. [...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 8, 2017, 10:54 AM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/3/2017 - 7/7/2017

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/3/2017 - 7/7/2017

    Small and large cap stocks finished week in what I will call a statistical tie performance wise.  The Russell 1000 (RUI) gained 0.02% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) was up 0.03%.  If this were an election RUI supporters would be calling for a recount.  I’m pretty convinced RUT is poised for a period of catching up to RUI and I looked smart on Monday as RUT gained 0.80% to RUI’s 0.25% rise, but with an increase in market volatility RUT fell back in line with RUI. The CBOE[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 8, 2017, 10:50 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 7/3/2017 - 7/7/2017

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 7/3/2017 - 7/7/2017

    One a week over week basis VIX didn’t do very much, rising 0.01.  This did occur after VIX visited the mid-12’s on Thursday.  But like all moves higher in VIX lately, it was a short-lived rally.  What is interesting below is the gain in futures.  A week ago, I was talking about how the curve was in a mini-flatting phase.  However, the futures all moved up a bit more than VIX which may be something we look back at as an early indication that the bull market was[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 8, 2017, 10:46 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/3/2017 - 7/7/2017

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/3/2017 - 7/7/2017

    The short end of the SPX volatility spectrum dropped last week which following a holiday-ish weekend is a little surprising to me.  Maybe getting employment out of the way pushed VXST lower relative to the other indexes.  Also note VXV and VXMT outperformed VIX to the upside.  Take my word on this, VXV often leads VIX and is worth keeping an eye on.  The long funds had a good wee with the unleveraged funds gaining over 2% and the leverage long funds rising by almost 5%. [...]