SPX Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 26, 2015, 9:45 AM

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    It wasn't a pretty or a convincing bullish move, but stocks did make forward progress last week, putting some distance between them and a huge hurdle that had otherwise been holding it back since February. Still, no later than it cleared that ceiling another possible one developed. We'll take a closer look at this new market situation, right after we review last week's and this week's economic numbers. Economic Data It may not have been a terribly busy week last week on the economic front, but it[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 23, 2015, 12:22 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Everything is grinding to a halt in this market, and that is probably a sign that an explosive move lies in the not-too-distant future. $SPX has support at the old highs (2120). If that should fail, there should be a good support level at 2070.   Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts.  However, it is obvious that these ratios have just been trending sideways for the past few days. Market breadth has been something[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 18, 2015, 10:35 AM

    Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? - Weekly Market Outlook

    The S&P 500 Index ended last week at a new high, and the technical trend momentum picture is bullish.  But we've seen similar moves since February reverse several times, as the market has remained in a choppy and grinding narrowing range (with a mild upside bias). The $64,000 question: Do we trust the move we just got by taking it at face value, or is this another potential fakeout? We'll weigh the odds below, after taking a detailed look at some of last week's and this week's[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | May 15, 2015, 1:50 PM

    PUT Index Hits All-time Daily Closing High, with Less Volatility Than “Traditional” Indexes

    PUT Index Hits All-time Daily Closing High, with Less Volatility Than “Traditional” Indexes

    On Thursday, May 14, the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUTSM) closed at 1503.46, its highest all-time daily close.  PUT is an award-winning benchmark index that measures the performance of a hypothetical portfolio that sells S&P 500® Index (SPX) put options against collateralized cash reserves held in a money market account.  The daily historical data for the PUT Index extends back to June 30, 1986. Since mid-1986 the PUT Index has had higher returns and lower volatility than[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | May 15, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.15.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.15.15

    The broad stock market has continued to frustrate both bulls and bears by remaining within a trading range for quite some time.  However, today, $SPX closed at a new all-time high and thus is on the verge of an upside breakout.  While this produced much glee on CNBC, there could be problems once again if this breakout is not confirmed. The simplest confirmation would be another $SPX close at new all-time highs, and this time above the all-time intra-day high at 2125.92. Equity-only put-call[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Trader Talk | Futures | May 12, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Market Tells Are More Useful Than Predictions or Comments

    Market Tells Are More Useful Than Predictions or Comments

    There was a slew of talk and predictions over the last few days that were to serve warning over equity market players, but what transpired as another up week with another very strong day on a Friday, the second consecutive big gain to end a week.  On Thursday we heard some 'off the cuff' comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, her thought that equity valuations were 'quite high', yet we know that condition is rather arbitrary.  Maybe she commented with a 'wink' to the markets.  The valuation[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | May 11, 2015, 4:00 PM

    Will The Nasdaq & Russell 2k Drag The SPX Back Down? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Will The Nasdaq & Russell 2k Drag The SPX Back Down? - Weekly Market Outlook

    You have to give credit to the bulls - they're not going down without a fight. In fact, last week's market rebound right from the brink of disaster was another impressive comeback. On the other hand, as impressive as Friday's bounce was, stocks still aren't over the big hurdle that's been holding them back since February.  Will this be the time we break through past the recent choppiness and trend higher? We'll draw that line in the sand after recapping last week's big economic news[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | May 8, 2015, 2:00 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.8.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.8.15

    The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals.  But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.   So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs). Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals. Market breadth was the[...]

  • Market News | Education | May 5, 2015, 3:43 PM

    A Dozen Positive Developments in 2015 for Investors in Options

    A Dozen Positive Developments in 2015 for Investors in Options

    Over the past decade I have delivered more than 200 presentations around the world to groups of investors such as pension funds and/or investment advisors. During the presentation events I solicit feedback from investors on the topics which are of interest. Below is a list of 12 positive developments in 2015 for investors in options. CAPACITY AND LARGE NOTIONAL SIZE FOR SPX OPTIONS VOLUME Liquidity and capacity often are key concerns of institutional investors who are considering investing sizable[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 4, 2015, 11:15 AM

    Still In No Man's Land - Weekly Market Outlook 5.4.15

    Still In No Man's Land - Weekly Market Outlook 5.4.15

    Despite the strong bullish effort on Friday, stock's booked a loss for the past week. On the other hand, the market finished the week on a bullish foot, which broadly suggests we'll hit the ground running in an upward direction this week. (It doesn't hurt the bullish case that the longer-term trend is still technically intact.)  We'll weigh the odds below, after looking at last week's big economic news and previewing some of this week's economic data. Economic Data While we got a large number[...]

  • Blogging Options | May 4, 2015, 7:53 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.4.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.4.15

    Stocks bounced back nicely Friday on average volume. A pretty good option trading as well with 17mm contracts trading.  SPX with over 1mm contracts changing hands, RUT totaled over 70 K.  England and Japan with holiday trading (May Day & Golden Week).  April Employment Friday, UK election Thursday. CVC tacks on $0.10 after good earnings, Oil & Gold higher, 10-year near 2.10%. Volatility as an asset class: Comcast (CMCSA) is up $1.06 to $59.47 in the preopen on better than expected[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 1, 2015, 10:08 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold. Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | Apr 28, 2015, 2:41 PM

    Not The Perfect Bullish Breakout, But - Weekly Market Outlook

    Not The Perfect Bullish Breakout, But - Weekly Market Outlook

    The S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SPY) hit a new record high last week and the close of 2117.69 was the highest close we've ever seen from the index -- and the NASDAQ Composite's (COMP) (QQQ) close of 5092.08 was above the recent ceiling around 5044.  The overall technical analysis picture is bullish for stocks.   But, we can't ignore the fact that there have been multiple bullish runs over the past 6 months that looked on the verge of a clear upside breakout only to reverse[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Apr 28, 2015, 1:07 PM

    A Brief History of SPX and VIX Reactions to Advanced GDP

    A Brief History of SPX and VIX Reactions to Advanced GDP

    This morning while conducting a webcast about VIX and extended hours trading I was asked a good question.  This means I didn't know the answer. Tomorrow at 7:30 Chicago time the first iteration of the 2015 First Quarter GDP number will be reported. This will be the first time this number has been released since CBOE began offering extended hours trading for VIX and SPX index options. While talking about this I was asked, “What does VIX usually do in reaction to the Advanced GDP release?”[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Apr 24, 2015, 10:30 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.24.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.24.15

    Both bulls and bears are frustrated by recent action. Most recently, $SPX has made repeated attempts to challenge the all-time highs, but it has not yet been able to break out.  There is resistance in the 2110- 2120 area that has contained all advances. In any case, the $SPX chart is still neutral until it breaks out of the triangle in a convincing way. Equity-only put-call ratios have been bullish since around the first of the month. But this week, they began to curl upwards -- a move which[...]