SPX Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Market News | Oct 26, 2015, 11:05 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - The Trend Is Your Friend

    Weekly Market Outlook - The Trend Is Your Friend

    Despite the tepid start to the trading week last week, the bullish finished strong, taking all the major indices above some major technical resistance lines. Granted, Friday's bullish move was more than a little overheated, with the opening gaps leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback that may well serve to start a corrective move. But, it's interesting that the market was able to muster that much bullish interest on what was (frankly) less than truly bullish prompt. We'll talk about the risks[...]

  • Market News | Oct 23, 2015, 3:30 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Indicators Remain Bullish

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Indicators Remain Bullish

    Earlier this week, it appeared that the rally that began at the end of October was lagging. But then Thursday, the market blew through resistance at 2040 and reaffirmed the bullish case with authority. A violation of the 1990 would remove the "bullish" label from the $SPX chart. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as they continue to decline (Figures 2 and 3). Market breadth indicators have been flip-flopping a bit lately, but have righted themselves in the last two days,[...]

  • Market News | Oct 19, 2015, 11:50 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Things are Pointed in a Bullish Direction

    Weekly Market Outlook - Things are Pointed in a Bullish Direction

    Despite the wobbly start last week, the bulls took control again on Thursday and Friday to push the week back into the black. The move has yet to clear all the major hurdles that could prove to be technical problems, but at least things are pointed in a bullish direction. On the flipside, stocks may have already walked back into a valuation headwind. We'll weight it all below after taking a close look at last week's and the coming week's economic news. Economic Data Last week was pretty[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Strategy | Oct 16, 2015, 12:28 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: The Bullish Case is Still Strong

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: The Bullish Case is Still Strong

    The stock market has taken on a much more bullish tone since the late- September lows.  We had several buy signals on September 30th, and they were well-timed.  The bullish case is still strong, even after $SPX has advanced 150 points this month. The $SPX chart is bullish.  $SPX broke out over 2000 last week, and this week it pulled back to that (general) level before moving to new relative highs once again.  Hence the breakout over 2000 was retested, and that retest was successful. Equity-only[...]

  • Market News | Oct 13, 2015, 3:45 PM

    Some Room To Run Higher - Weekly Market Outlook

    Some Room To Run Higher - Weekly Market Outlook

    Incredibly enough, last week's gain was the biggest weekly gain of the year. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained 3.22% last week, and though it was mostly just fortunate timing that allowed for the big week-to-week move, the momentum is impressive nonetheless. The question is, can it last? Answer: Maybe. The rally knocked over some fairly important resistance levels, though a few more remain. Also, the advent of Q3's earnings season could either work for the market or against it. Either way,[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Oct 9, 2015, 2:39 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - The Buy Signals are Piling Up

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - The Buy Signals are Piling Up

    A week ago, we noted that there were three short-term, oversold buy signals. Now, more buy signals are occurring, and these are of the intermediate-term variety. The last hurdle was cleared today, when the $SPX closed above 2000. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as they continue to decline from recent highs. Market breadth has improved greatly during this most recent rally, and has now reached extremely overbought levels. That is not necessarily a bad thing, for we have often stated[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Oct 7, 2015, 11:47 AM

    Options on MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) – Volume of 472 Contracts on Tuesday

    Options on MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) – Volume of 472 Contracts on Tuesday

    On Tuesday, October 6, the CBOE options on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) had reported volume of 472 contracts (236 call options and 236 put options). Why are several investors expressing more interest in the MXEF options that launched earlier this year? Below are four key reasons I have heard from investors. BIGGER NOTIONAL SIZE FOR CASH-SETTLED INDEX OPTIONS As shown in the chart below, many of the cash-settled index options have notional values that are much bigger than the notional[...]

  • VIX over 20.00 Streak Ends at 30 Days - So Now What?

    VIX over 20.00 Streak Ends at 30 Days - So Now What?

    Even the VIX tourists were paying attention to the long running streak where VIX closed over 20.00.  The run ended at 30 today with VIX finishing at 19.54.   This was not nearly as fun as watching Pete Rose in the summer of 1978, but for some of us, it was quite a ride.  When Pete didn't get a hit on August 1st he was asked what he would do tomorrow, his response, "I guess start another streak".  Unfortunately we can't stick a microphone in front of VIX and ask what[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Oct 5, 2015, 11:28 AM

    Signs Of Bullish Hope - Weekly Market Outlook

    Signs Of Bullish Hope - Weekly Market Outlook

    Despite the bearish start to the week on Monday and a bearish initial response to Friday morning's employment report for September, the bulls managed to reversal course Friday afternoon to hammer out a big gain for that day and even a small gain for the week. A couple of the key indices even managed to climb back above their short-term moving average lines. There's still work to be done -- from both sides of the table -- if we're ever going to get out of this rut. But, a bullish break out of the[...]

  • Market News | Oct 2, 2015, 11:26 AM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/2/15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/2/15

    Despite a couple of rough days this week, buy signals have emerged from our short-term oversold indicators, and so we have a more bullish outlook for the short term but not necessarily for the intermediate- term. $SPX has retested the August lows and formed a "W" bottom, so that is support at 1870. A violation of that area would force a retest of the October lows at 1820. A move above 2000 would be bulllish. Put-call ratios turned bullish just over a week ago, and they remain on buy signals[...]

  • Education | Oct 1, 2015, 10:00 AM

    Bear Market Rallies Are Vicious

    Bear Market Rallies Are Vicious

    The past week, it seemed markets were ready for a nice rip to the upside, on at least a couple of occasions.  That is something actually, as since late August the bulls have been struggling to string some momentum together.  While Monday was a solid win, the sellers came out in earnest the next day with a gap down and close lower that did not give the bulls a chance.  Friday seemed to be all about the upside, given the big rally off the monthly lows the prior day. A 25 handle gap up[...]

  • Market News | Sep 28, 2015, 11:33 AM

    Bears Remain In Charge - Weekly Market Outlook

    Bears Remain In Charge - Weekly Market Outlook

    Despite a couple of efforts to shrug it off, the market could never quite snap the downtrend that was put into place by a key reversal bar two Fridays ago. In fact, the fact that Friday's rally efforts were thwarted at a well-established line in the sand suggests the bulls remain on the defensive. The flipside: The bears didn't exactly do any real technical damage when they had a chance to do so Thursday. We'll look at both sides of the coin, as always, after a brief run-down of last week's and this[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Sep 25, 2015, 3:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 9/25/2015

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 9/25/2015

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast and online and social media outlets. Bonds Are At It Again There is considerable uncertainty in the interest rate markets creating a volatile, yet fragile, bond market.   Global asset managers can watch the “interest rate VIX” – the CBOE/CBOT 10-Year US Treasury Note Volatility Index (TYVIX) -- for clues. “The TYVIX Index:[...]

  • Market News | Sep 25, 2015, 2:55 PM

    New Benchmark Indexes That Use S&P 500 Weekly Options – Presentation in Switzerland

    New Benchmark Indexes That Use S&P 500 Weekly Options – Presentation in Switzerland

    S&P 500® Weekly options (SPXW) offer near-term expirations on Fridays other than the third Friday standard expirations. Average daily volume for the S&P 500 Weekly options grew to 272,939 in 2014. QUESTION ABOUT WEEKLY OPTIONS - Some options investors and commentators have asked questions such as – “Are the Weekly options merely tools for short-term speculation, or are they also used for prudent income enhancement strategies? Can CBOE create a benchmark index that uses Weekly[...]

  • Market News | Sep 25, 2015, 1:38 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Volatility Has Generally Been Trendless

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Volatility Has Generally Been Trendless

    The $SPX chart remains bearish. During the oversold rally that failed at the 2000 level, an upward trend line had developed on the $SPX chart, connecting the daily lows since the 1870 bottom. That trend line was broken decisively this week, as $SPX fell back below its 20-day moving average. For now, the $SPX chart is bearish as long as it remains below the broken trend line (see Figure 1). Put-call ratios are bullish. Figures 2 & 3 show that both equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over and[...]