VXN Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | Strategy | Oct 31, 2016, 10:03 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - October 31, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - October 31, 2016

    Stocks tried to get the market back in a bullish groove, staging a pretty solid advance on Monday of last week. It wasn't meant to be though. That rally effort petered out beginning on Tuesday, and then accelerated as the week wore on with the weight of a big Q2 rally still getting in the way. By the time Friday's closing bell rang most of the indices were within easy reach of a major support level. One stumble this week could finally pop this fragile (albeit short-term) bubble. And if there was[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jan 4, 2016, 2:11 PM

    Eight Charts to Recap 2015 – CNDR Index Rose 10.4%

    Eight Charts to Recap 2015 – CNDR Index Rose 10.4%

    End-of-the-year headlines noted “A Roller Coaster Year Ends with U.S. Markets Mostly Down” (New York Times) and “U.S. Stocks Post Worst Annual Losses Since 2008” (The Wall Street Journal). In this new year on Jan. 4, wsj.com noted “Weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and a falling currency triggered a 7% fall in mainland Chinese stocks that led authorities to halt trading there before the end of the session.” After reading these types of news stories, an inquisitive[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 28, 2015, 10:14 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Santa Claus Rally & The Dollar

    Weekly Market Outlook - Santa Claus Rally & The Dollar

    Last but not least, November's durable goods orders were posted last week. They weren't stunning, with or without transportation orders factored in. On the other hand, bear in mind that the figures represent a comparison to October's totals - not November 2014's totals. It's also pretty clear from the chart below that we can't sweat tepid - or even negative - durable goods orders comparisons. It's clearly a volatile piece of data. Durable Goods Orders Chart It wasn't a full trading week, but the[...]

  • Market News | Oct 19, 2015, 11:50 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Things are Pointed in a Bullish Direction

    Weekly Market Outlook - Things are Pointed in a Bullish Direction

    Despite the wobbly start last week, the bulls took control again on Thursday and Friday to push the week back into the black. The move has yet to clear all the major hurdles that could prove to be technical problems, but at least things are pointed in a bullish direction. On the flipside, stocks may have already walked back into a valuation headwind. We'll weight it all below after taking a close look at last week's and the coming week's economic news. Economic Data Last week was pretty[...]

  • Market News | Jul 27, 2015, 11:22 AM

    Where Is The Floor? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Where Is The Floor? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Once the bearish ball got rolling last week, it got rolling in spades. In retrospect, however, the pullback makes sense in terms of when, where, and why. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) as well as the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) both bumped into major technical ceilings, and right on cue, began a retreat that likely isn't over yet. We'll dissect the breakdown below, as always. First though, we need to run down last week's and this week's key economic numbers. Economic Data Though a light week in terms of[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 26, 2015, 9:45 AM

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    It wasn't a pretty or a convincing bullish move, but stocks did make forward progress last week, putting some distance between them and a huge hurdle that had otherwise been holding it back since February. Still, no later than it cleared that ceiling another possible one developed. We'll take a closer look at this new market situation, right after we review last week's and this week's economic numbers. Economic Data It may not have been a terribly busy week last week on the economic front, but it[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 18, 2015, 10:35 AM

    Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? - Weekly Market Outlook

    The S&P 500 Index ended last week at a new high, and the technical trend momentum picture is bullish.  But we've seen similar moves since February reverse several times, as the market has remained in a choppy and grinding narrowing range (with a mild upside bias). The $64,000 question: Do we trust the move we just got by taking it at face value, or is this another potential fakeout? We'll weigh the odds below, after taking a detailed look at some of last week's and this week's[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Education | Mar 10, 2015, 12:46 PM

    Will Friday's Selloff Have Legs? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Will Friday's Selloff Have Legs? - Weekly Market Outlook

    (Editors Note:  We meant to put this up yesterday morning, very apropos with today's move lower. Though it wasn't necessarily a bullish week (last week), the market was holding up well enough... until Friday's implosion. That one bad day pulled the market under some key support levels, and as such we now have to entertain the possibility that some selling weakness has been opened. And yet, there's still a beacon of hope for a quick rebound. We'll dissect the broad market's odds[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 7, 2015, 12:25 PM

    The Week in VIX - 2/2 - 2/6

    The Week in VIX - 2/2 - 2/6

    With a 17% drop in VIX, the week ended not just in contango, but pretty steep contango. Especially when looking at February versus the spot. Also taking into account there is a week and a half remaining until February settlement. February at almost a 2 point premium to VIX in a pretty good indication that traders are still worried about the health of the overall stock market and the possibility that February settlement comes in higher than current levels. I’m going to deviate a[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Jan 1, 2015, 4:15 PM

    Nasdaq-100 Volatility in 2014

    Nasdaq-100 Volatility in 2014

    Of the three broad based market indexes that have tradable volatility markets, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX – 4236.28) was the clear winner in 2014. NDX rose almost 18% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 11.4% and the Russell 2000 gained only 3.5%. With the tech and biotech sector in favor for most of 2014 volatility as priced in by NDX options was relatively low. The first thought I have when I look at the table below is disbelief. I’ve said this many times and I’m truly[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 30, 2014, 10:20 AM

    Nasdaq Composite Picking Up Steam - Weekly Market Outlook

    Nasdaq Composite Picking Up Steam - Weekly Market Outlook

    Last week was a fairly typical Christmas holiday-split week, marked by weak volume before and after the day off, and a slight gain on par with the beginning of an average Santa Claus rally (not to mention the tepid bullishness in front of the Christmas break).  Though the trend was up more or less, take last week's price action with a grain of salt, as last week was anything but a normal one.  Let's first examine - and chart - last week's big economic news. Economic Data The holiday-abbreviated[...]