VXO Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 10, 2016, 7:38 PM

    Trump Victory = Divergence Between U.S. & Emerging Equity Markets

    Trump Victory = Divergence Between U.S. & Emerging Equity Markets

    Emerging market equities lead the charge in 2016 until Tuesday’s U.S. Presidential election.  Donald Trump’s victory altered that course as the markets react to potential changes in global trade.  Within the past two days, S&P 500 moves towards it’s 52-week high (2,193.81) and the FTSE Emerging Index declined by 5% from its record high from Sept. 8th (467.34) .  Although it may be too early to forecast trends in the Emerging Markets vs U.S. Large Caps, investors[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 29, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.29.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.29.15

    $SPX remains stalled just below the all-time highs, which are at 2135. The support at 2070 (the lows of March and April) remains in place. Equity-only put-call ratios are technically still on sell signals. But have been drifting sideways for a couple of weeks. Market breadth oscillators gave sell signals prior to Tuesday's market decline. They remain on those sell signals, despite the broad market's attempt to recover. Volatility indices and derivatives are still quite bullish. Yes, they spiked[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 23, 2015, 12:22 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Everything is grinding to a halt in this market, and that is probably a sign that an explosive move lies in the not-too-distant future. $SPX has support at the old highs (2120). If that should fail, there should be a good support level at 2070.   Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts.  However, it is obvious that these ratios have just been trending sideways for the past few days. Market breadth has been something[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | May 15, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.15.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.15.15

    The broad stock market has continued to frustrate both bulls and bears by remaining within a trading range for quite some time.  However, today, $SPX closed at a new all-time high and thus is on the verge of an upside breakout.  While this produced much glee on CNBC, there could be problems once again if this breakout is not confirmed. The simplest confirmation would be another $SPX close at new all-time highs, and this time above the all-time intra-day high at 2125.92. Equity-only put-call[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | May 8, 2015, 2:00 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.8.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.8.15

    The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals.  But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.   So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs). Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals. Market breadth was the[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 1, 2015, 10:08 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold. Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Apr 24, 2015, 10:30 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.24.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.24.15

    Both bulls and bears are frustrated by recent action. Most recently, $SPX has made repeated attempts to challenge the all-time highs, but it has not yet been able to break out.  There is resistance in the 2110- 2120 area that has contained all advances. In any case, the $SPX chart is still neutral until it breaks out of the triangle in a convincing way. Equity-only put-call ratios have been bullish since around the first of the month. But this week, they began to curl upwards -- a move which[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Apr 17, 2015, 9:51 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.17.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.17.15

    There was some positive action this week, but in the end it's still a trading range market.   $SPX moved to the high end of the range almost challenging the all-time highs, but it could not break out on the upside.  There has been some improvement in the status of the other indicators, but unless $SPX can break out to the upside, it will not really matter. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as their 21-day moving averages continue to drop nearly every day. Market breadth[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Apr 10, 2015, 1:45 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.10.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.10.15

    The stock market has traded in an ever-narrowing range for over a month now.  The most recent range has been bounded by 2090 on the upside and 2050 on the downside.  But now $SPX is trying to break through 2090.  Even if that is accomplished, there is still considerable overhead resistance at 2110-2120 (the all-time highs).     Most of the other indicators have taken on a more positive slant in the last week or so.  As a prime example, the equity-only put-call[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Mar 27, 2015, 2:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.15

    When $SPX broke down through the 2090 support level, that was a very negative sign, especially since stocks failed at the old highs.   There is now strong resistance at 2110-2120 (the February and March peaks), as well as at 2090 (again).  As for support, the initial support level will be 2040, the early March lows.  Below that, there is support at 1970-1990, which is the area of the December and January lows. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on sell signals and are[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Futures | Mar 20, 2015, 9:00 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

    In figure 1, the support at 2040 and the resistance at the recent all-time highs of 2120 are marked as a trading range.  Until $SPX breaks out of that range, it really doesn't have a trend in place.  To support that conclusion, the indicators are somewhat mixed. Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals during this latest rally. Breadth hasn't been terrific during this rally, but it was strong enough to pull the "stocks only" oscillator into a mildly overbought[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Mar 13, 2015, 10:23 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.13.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.13.15

    The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), had been laboring at new highs, near 2120. Then, last Friday it broke down below support at 2090, which turned the chart bearish. Equity-only put ratios curled upwards late last week and gave confirmed sell signal. See below. Market breadth oscillators had been on sell signals. But they reached oversold status, and now both have rolled over to buy signals, after two days of positive breadth. Volatility indices only[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Feb 13, 2015, 1:45 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.13.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.13.15

    The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has finally broken out of the 1990-2065 trading range that had contained it for nearly two months. The breakout was not easily achieved, nor is it uniformly confirmed by all of the other indicators, but it is in place. As for support, there should be ample support at 2065 and at several levels below that, all the way to the bottom of the trading range, at 1990. Equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to buy signals a week ago Tuesday. You can see from the[...]

  • Weekly Market Commentary 2.6.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.6.15

    The stock market has had a strong week. Even so, $SPX remains within the general confines of the 1990-2065 trading range, on a closing basis. We still await a breakout from that range in order to establish an intermediate-term trend. In something of a surprise, both equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to buy signals after Tuesday's trading this week. The computer programs that we use to monitor these charts were right on top of this new signal. Market breadth has been jumping back[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Jan 30, 2015, 2:30 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.30.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.30.15

    Market volatility has remained high, and we can expect these high levels of volatility to persist. Even with this volatility, the chart of $SPX is still in a trading range. Once again -- for the fifth time this month -- 1990 has proven to be support. To say that 1990 is an important level would be an understatement.   If it gives way, a much more bearish situation would develop. On the upside, there is resistance at 2065. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.  They rolled[...]