Cboe Blogs

Despite closing at an all-time low on Thursday and the S&P 500 gaining over 1% last week, VIX was slightly higher when the dust settled Friday.  The same cannot be said for the VIX futures curve where all contracts lost value last week.  It should be noted that despite the low level (or because of the low level of VIX), VVIX close just shy of 100 last week.  VIX Weeklys continue to become a bigger part of the VIX story with non-standard expirations continuing to experience volume[...]

The VXST – VIX – VIXM3 – VXMT curve was mixed with VIX rising but the other three S&P 500 related volatility indexes lower on the week. On the summary table, SKEW and VVIX stand out as indications that risk is lurking around the markets.  As a perspective, we have SKEW data going back to 1990 and Friday’s close places the index higher than 99.11% of all observations.  The long-term average (going back to 2007) for VVIX is 87.71, which places Friday’s[...]

Both the Russell 2000 (RUT) and Russell 1000 (RUI) had a solid week with both rising about 1.3%.  Small caps still lag large cap stocks, but since the summer RUT has been slowly chipping away at the lead held but the Russell 1000. After a dip to the lowest levels in 2017, which was then followed by a couple of weeks of small cap outperformance, the relationship between the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility index (RVX) and VIX has returned to the elevated levels that have been common this year. [...]

Every three months the Federal Reserve conducts a survey titled, “The Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms”.  This report comes in summary form as well as specific responses to 79 questions that are asked each quarter.  Periodically there are some extra questions placed at the end of the survey, needless to say the academic in me got pretty excited when I saw questions 81 through 89 were titled Special Questions on Client Trading in Equity Volatility[...]

On September 27 in New York City, fifty financial professionals attended a panel discussion on Current Dynamics of the VIX Market. SPEAKERS I moderated the session that featured expert speakers Bob Dwyer of ProShares; Aymen Boukhari of Societe Generale, Joanne Hill of CBOE Vest Financial; and Vinit Srivastava of S&P Dow Jones Indices.     SOME OF THE TOPICS AND ISSUES DISCUSSED Among the topics discussed were investor strategies and recent volume records for VIX futures[...]

VIX remains at low levels and the curve continues to be steep as the volatility markets appear to be braced for ‘something’.  That something is probably an unknown unknown that will shock some very complacent markets.  An interesting VIX trade caught my eye on Friday as it were a little different than most of the trades I’ve come across.  First the trade details and then a little color about that trade.  Friday morning, with VIX around 9.50, there was a buyer[...]

The S&P 500 continues to power higher finishing the week (and 3rd quarter) at an all-time high.  The price action last week pushed all the SPX related volatility indexes lower, but not by much.  All were already low and testing levels that have been pretty much a floor before the week commenced.  The long VIX related ETPs reacted as would be expected with VIX hovering in single digits last week with VXX down about 5% and UVXY losing just under 10% on the week.  For the[...]

Small cap stocks still lag, but the Russell 2000 (RUT) made quite a run over the past couple of weeks and is now up 9.85% on the year compared to 12.5% for the Russell 1000 (RUI).  Friday was the end of the third quarter and with the late quarter move RUT ended up 5.33% higher while RUI gained 3.97%.  The relationship between the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) and VIX visited 2017 lows over the past couple of weeks as small cap stocks outperformed large caps.  Despite the[...]

Earlier this month CBOE and CAIA Association teamed up to present a panel discussion in New York City on Accessing the Volatility Risk Premium with Cash-Secured Put Writing. I was pleased to see great feedback on the event. SPEAKERS The panel discussion featured four speakers who are shown (left to right) in the above picture -- Derek Devens, Managing Director, Neuberger Berman Robert Specht, Portfolio Manager, Additive Advisory and Capital Tripp Zimmerman, CFA, Associate Director of Research,[...]

Another big bullish VIX trade came into the pit today, with VIX just over 10.00 and the October futures at 12.20, a buyer of about 100,000 VIX Oct 17 Calls came into the market paying 0.45 for the whole lot.  The trade got divided up around the pit in several pieces, which shows up in the time and sales from LiveVol below.  There’s just under 3 weeks October 18th when these options settle on the market open so the buyer is either speculating on a volatility spike, or guarding against[...]

On September 25th a new daily volume record of 2.61 million contracts was set for options on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®), as the VIX Index rose 6.5% to close at 10.21 that day. TOP TEN VOLUME DAYS FOR VIX OPTIONS Four of the top ten days for VIX options volume occurred in 2017. NEWS COVERAGE OF TRADING ACTIVITY IN VIX OPTIONS AND VIX FUTURES Recent news coverage has highlighted investor use of both VIX options and VIX futures. A September 25 news story in Reuters entitled “VIX[...]

Back in the day, when I was a lad in Junior High School, the Dead Kennedys remade the theme to the TV show Rawhide.  The song begins, “Rollin’ rollin’ rollin’”, which is the ear worm I get when I see a trade like we had in the VIX pit today.  Specifically, an October spread that got put on in July was rolled out to December.    The first part of the story begins on Friday July 21st when a trader initiated a spread that sold 1 VIX Oct 12 Put for 0.75,[...]

Everyone knows the equity markets have been putting up a solid 2017.  The S&P 500 is up about 12% and developed markets, excluding North America, as measured by the MSCI EAFE (MXEA) Index is up about 17.5% for 2017.  However, emerging markets, as displayed by the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) has gained almost 29%.  The chart below shows the performance for MXEF in 2017.     A big trade came into the MXEF post at CBOE yesterday that seems[...]

As I have learned and taught about technical analysis over the years, it is certainly not a sophisticated science.  If you have a set of eyes, can see recognizable patterns that repeat over and over again we can draw some conclusions, and from that high probabilities of success.  There are no guarantees of course, but I'll take the high odds of human behavior repeating over and over  again. A couple of coincident indicators I look at include new highs/lows and the bullish percent indicator. [...]

VIX threatened to close the week with a 9 handle, but managed to stay out of single digit territory.  Spot VIX was down over 16% and the standard September futures contract which goes off the board on the open Wednesday was down 16% as well.  There’s still a premium of 0.95 between spot and September VIX, but the gap that has persisted until recently is closing.  October, which will take over as the front month, remains at a premium of about 1.75.  Friday was fairly quiet,[...]