• Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 12, 2016, 2:40 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/7 - 11/11

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/7 - 11/11

    Last week the Russell 2000 (RUT) beat the Russell 1000 (RUI) down like a college football team trying to make a statement and qualify for a spot in the playoff.  RUT was up over 10% in reaction to the outcome of the US election while the large cap (and more internationally focused) RUI gained just under 4%.  The race to the end of the year was close, but now RUT has about a 7% lead on RUI. In an interesting twist, the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) moved up relative[...]

  • Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 10, 2016, 7:38 PM

    Trump Victory = Divergence Between U.S. & Emerging Equity Markets

    Trump Victory = Divergence Between U.S. & Emerging Equity Markets

    Emerging market equities lead the charge in 2016 until Tuesday’s U.S. Presidential election.  Donald Trump’s victory altered that course as the markets react to potential changes in global trade.  Within the past two days, S&P 500 moves towards it’s 52-week high (2,193.81) and the FTSE Emerging Index declined by 5% from its record high from Sept. 8th (467.34) .  Although it may be too early to forecast trends in the Emerging Markets vs U.S. Large Caps, investors[...]

  • VIX | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 9, 2016, 3:17 PM

    VIX Nov. Futures Shot Up by 55% on Election Night, but Later Retreated After Conciliatory Speech

    VIX Nov. Futures Shot Up by 55% on Election Night, but Later Retreated After Conciliatory Speech

    Four charts with big price moves over the past two days are presented in this blog. On the Tuesday election night in the United States, the reported prices for the November futures on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) rose from a low of 15.10 at 8:07 p.m. E.T., to a high of 23.46 at 10:27 p.m. E.T., an amazing rise of 55% over a 140-minute period (source: Bloomberg). Reported volume for VIX futures during non-U.S. trading hours topped 230,000 contracts both on June 24 (Brexit) and again[...]

  • About Last Night

    About Last Night

    So I spent the evening and early part of this morning watching different networks while watching the financial markets at the same time.  The chart below is a 5-minute chart showing the S&P 500 and VIX futures trading during the non-US hours trading session.  Then after 3 hours of sleep I taught my class at Loyola, spending half of that talking my students down from their disappointment at the election results.   There were a couple of things that stand out on the chart from[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 7, 2016, 4:40 PM

    On Election Eve, Volatility Indexes for Stocks, Gold, Currencies & Volatility Fall By More than 8% (after Record 9-Day Up-Streak)

    On Election Eve, Volatility Indexes for Stocks, Gold, Currencies & Volatility Fall By More than 8% (after Record 9-Day Up-Streak)

    Last week I heard about quite a bit of new interest in portfolio protection strategies, and on November 4 the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) rose on a ninth consecutive day (a new all-time record for the VIX Index over its price history dating back to January 1990). However, on November 7, the date before the U.S. national elections, the S&P 500® Index rose 2.2%, and the percentage changes for some key volatility indexes were as follows: ·         -16.9% [...]

  • Market News | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 7, 2016, 10:22 AM

    Election Update - Volatility Still Abundant Despite S&P 500 Rally

    Election Update - Volatility Still Abundant Despite S&P 500 Rally

    As I write this the S&P 500 is up 40.00 points on the nose and volatility is dropping.  I ran a quick update on different charts I have been using to discuss the markets and the election.  All three appear to be saying despite the stock market rally, there’s still some uneasiness with respect to tomorrow’s election. First, I’ve been watching the at the money implied volatility of SPX options expiring in November.  We have options expiring on the close today, but[...]

  • BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Election Week

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Election Week

    Last week wasn't just rough. It was the worst week the market has logged since September, and it was close to being the worst week since January. Whatever the case, it was bad, with the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) losing 1.94% of its value over the course of five straight losing days. In fact, the index has now logged nine straight losing days. That's the longest losing streak since 1980. There's a potential upside to such a move. That is, after such a dry spell, the buyers may be chomping at the[...]

  • Trader Talk | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 7, 2016, 9:04 AM

    Comparing the Election to Brexit

    Comparing the Election to Brexit

    From a market perspective, the outcome for this week's election is similar to the brexit vote in United Kingdom earlier this year.  That is, a binary event where one extreme outcome is likely to trigger several emotional responses.  Remember much of the worry over brexit prior to that critical vote?  Wait, there was none?  No, I don't remember it, either.  Leading up to the brexit the polls seemed to be convinced voters would not push the referendum through. In fact, lawmakers[...]

  • Market News | Nov 6, 2016, 4:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/6/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/6/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. Industry Professionals Set Sail for CBOE RMC Asia Last Tuesday, CBOE announced the agenda for the 2nd annual CBOE Risk Management Conference Asia, a two-day event featuring discussions covering volatility products, and the latest risk management tools and tactics from top traders and strategist.  One of this[...]

  • Market News | Nov 6, 2016, 12:17 PM

    Earnings Week of 11/7 - 11/11

    Earnings Week of 11/7 - 11/11

    Earnings season is starting to wind down, but there are plenty of stocks with Weeklys reporting this week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 6, 2016, 8:48 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 10/31 - 11/4

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 10/31 - 11/4

    Volatility rose as we approach Tuesday’s big decision.  VIX gained almost 40% and the November contract moved up 16% which placed the short end of the curve in backwardation.  One other thing I’d like to point out below is the ‘dip’ that is the December contract.  Due to the Holidays there is a seasonal impact on the curve, however, this is the first weekend this stood out this much. One trader is expecting the dust to clear and VIX to fall rapidly to normal[...]

  • Market News | Nov 5, 2016, 7:57 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/31 - 11/4

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/31 - 11/4

    Short dated volatility in the form of VXST was up over 70% last week.  The uncertainty around this election has reached a frenzied point.  That combined with the S&P 500 dropping about 2% resulted in the whole curve shifting higher.  I discussed the 2012 before and after curves in an earlier blog which can be read here.  I do expect short dated volatility to fall back in line, but where the rest of the indexes will be is anyone’s guess and depends heavily on the reaction[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 5, 2016, 7:09 PM

    Volatility History Lesson - The 2012 Election

    Volatility History Lesson - The 2012 Election

    I’ve been getting lots of questions with respect to how volatility acts around US elections.  We don’t have a lot of history to work with, but we do have data on how the four volatility indexes based on SPX option trading did four years ago.  I did a little digging and reconstructed the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curves from the Friday before and Friday after the 2012 election. The pre-election curve was slightly inverted with VXST at a premium to spot VIX.  [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 5, 2016, 8:00 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 10/31 - 11/4

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 10/31 - 11/4

    It’s a stretch, but the race to the end of 2017 is shaping up like the most recent World Series that captivated my home town.  Early this year the Russell 1000 (RUI) dominated performance, then it looked like the Russell 2000 was going to run away with the out performance crown.  Suddenly, a couple of weeks ago, RUI got a second wind and is making a run at RUT.  Last week RUI closed the gap a tad losing 1.92% while RUT was down 2.08%.  For the year RUT is up 2.43% and RUI[...]

  • Market News | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 4, 2016, 2:11 PM

    Big Week for New Inquiries Re: Portfolio Protection, as Daily Volume Spikes for SPX Puts (992k), VIX Calls (590k), and VIX Futures (319k)

    Big Week for New Inquiries Re: Portfolio Protection, as Daily Volume Spikes for SPX Puts (992k), VIX Calls (590k), and VIX Futures (319k)

    This week has been a big week regrading new interest in tools for portfolio protection. We spoke with a Wall Street Journal reporter to provide information on the VIX and VVIX indexes that was used in a story entitled “Election Fear Creeps Into the Market.” In addition, I spoke with multiple investment advisers who said that this was the busiest week of the year in terms of new client inquiries on protective strategies. Both the VIX and CBOE VIX of VIX (VVIX) indexes have risen each[...]