• VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 4, 2016, 8:47 AM

    Now Even Long Term Volatility is Reacting to the Election

    Now Even Long Term Volatility is Reacting to the Election

    A bonus with respect to the Cubs pulling off what we all thought was impossible has been a distraction from the political process we have all been enduring.  Before bringing everyone back to reality I want to throw an interesting thought out there.  If three years ago someone had said the Cubs will win the World Series and less than a week later Donald Trump would be elected President of the United States, you would think they were referring to a subplot in Back to the Future IV. We know[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 1, 2016, 4:16 PM

    Volatility and the Election Update

    Volatility and the Election Update

    Usually by this time in the election season we have a pretty good idea of who is going to win the election.  However, like everything associated with this election, it is different this time.  Things changed on a dime late last week and I'm having a hard time figuring out what to highlight with respect to the volatility markets.  So forgive me if I miss a thing or two here... Last Monday I showed the chart below and highlighted that implied volatility for SPX options expiring just[...]

  • Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 1, 2016, 2:38 PM

    Open Interest Rises to 9 Million for SPX Puts and 4.7 Million for VIX Calls, while Implied Vol is Higher for the Nov. 9 Index Option Expirations

    Open Interest Rises to 9 Million for SPX Puts and 4.7 Million for VIX Calls, while Implied Vol is Higher for the Nov. 9 Index Option Expirations

    Several recent news stories have covered this topic - how can investors protect their portfolios in the event of stock market moves during and after the U.S. election on November 8? For investors who are concerned that stock indexes could decline and volatility indexes could soar in future weeks, two of the simpler index option strategies to consider are (1) buying S&P 500 (SPX) protective put options, and (2) buying call options on the CBOE volatility Index (VIX). In the charts below, not that[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 1, 2016, 9:01 AM

    The Election and Market Sector Volatility Part 2

    The Election and Market Sector Volatility Part 2

    Update - I expanded on the information below in this video after writing this blog earlier today. LimelightPlayerUtil.initEmbed('limelight_player_532992'); So, last week I looked at the implied volatility of various option markets that expired just before and just after next week’s election.  You can read all about that here.  Of course, as we all know, things changed a bit last Friday.  When things change, I start running numbers.  First I updated the table from last week[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 31, 2016, 7:04 PM

    Trick Now, Treat Later

    Trick Now, Treat Later

    After having a pretty good week shorting anything with a ticker (no, not really - just a few select names) and getting away with it, I got caught with my shorts up on Friday afternoon.  Who can predict green ticks higher than the Empire State Building that materialize while you're waiting by the microwave for coffee to warm?  So I decided to transmogrify the offending position into a Frankenstein's monster of sorts, fitting for the candy festival otherwise known as October 31st. I booked[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | Strategy | Oct 31, 2016, 10:03 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - October 31, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - October 31, 2016

    Stocks tried to get the market back in a bullish groove, staging a pretty solid advance on Monday of last week. It wasn't meant to be though. That rally effort petered out beginning on Tuesday, and then accelerated as the week wore on with the weight of a big Q2 rally still getting in the way. By the time Friday's closing bell rang most of the indices were within easy reach of a major support level. One stumble this week could finally pop this fragile (albeit short-term) bubble. And if there was[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Oct 31, 2016, 9:41 AM

    Uncertainties Create a Pause For Market Participants

    Uncertainties Create a Pause For Market Participants

    These next eight to ten days will be quite interesting as the outcome of some events will unfold, as the Fed policy and election uncertainties will create headaches for market players. The Fed has a meeting this week and it is widely held they will not make a move on interest rates, rather they will continue to provide clues toward a December rate hike.  Whether that is good policy shift is open to debate, but certainly there is a swarm of support to hike the rate before the end of 2016. [...]

  • Market News | Oct 30, 2016, 4:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/30/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/30/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. CBOE Hosts Institutional “VIP” Summit On Thursday, CBOE hosted its 1st ever Institutional VIP -- “Volatility Investor Program” -- Summit, a day of events for principal volatility managers and institutional allocators that focused on how volatility investing can be utilized to improve portfolio[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | Oct 30, 2016, 12:36 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/24 - 10/28

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/24 - 10/28

    As a good number, but not all (some of us are White Sox fans) of the traders on the floor at CBOE were starting to think about where they were going to be that evening to watch Game 3 of the World Series, some news broke that shook the equity markets.  I don’t need to regurgitate all that here.  In fact, regurgitate is a good word to describe the election process this year. The curve below is partially a result of the uncertainty around the election, but also reflects a relationship[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Oct 30, 2016, 8:59 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 10/24 - 10/28

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 10/24 - 10/28

    VIX had a pretty stellar week, aided by the new on Friday, to finish over 20% higher. Spot VIX may be buying into a new scandal, but the futures did not.  The curve is as flat as it has been in months which tells me traders expect this move in VIX to be short lived. We are all aware that VIX made a little move on Friday as new of a new chapter in the Clinton email saga commenced.  As the week came to an end on trader took advantage of a rise in VIX and the December futures[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 29, 2016, 1:49 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 10/24 - 10/28

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 10/24 - 10/28

    Last week the Russell 2000 (RUT) took it on the chin dropping 2.6% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) was down only 0.80%.  For the year RUT still has a small lead, up 4.55% versus up 3.98%, but that could quickly disappear next week. The volatility spike that came Friday afternoon did what most surprising events do to the relationship between the Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) and VIX.  The ratio dropped, but is still above average for 2016. The week ended[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | Oct 29, 2016, 9:08 AM

    VVIX Index Spikes 21% on News of Federal Investigation

    VVIX Index Spikes 21% on News of Federal Investigation

    OCT. 28 – On Friday afternoon a news story at wsj.com<http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/10/28/markets-rattled-by-fresh-fbi-review-of-clinton-email/?mod=djemalertMARKET> noted that – “Worries about a surprise election outcome resurfaced anew in financial markets on Friday afternoon after the Federal Bureau of Investigation uncovered new evidence in its investigation of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton‘s email server. … The news sent ripples through[...]

  • Trade Ideas | Oct 28, 2016, 2:35 PM

    Admiral SPO Delivers Another Over Night Winner

    Admiral SPO Delivers Another Over Night Winner

    On Monday, October 24, Admiral sent out a call spread on Lockheed Martin in anticipation of a bullish Earnings Report due PreMarket on October 25. The DEC 240/245 call spread was filled @ $1.24. Lockheed Martin announced 3rd Quarter Profit earnings of $3.61 per share on Revenue of $11.6 Billion and easily beat the estimates. Being in profit with more than 150%, Admiral had  the order ready to sell at the open, which was filled @ $3.10, not bad for a one day trade.  As for Maury,[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 28, 2016, 9:39 AM

    Block Trade Analysis - HSY Earnings Trade

    Block Trade Analysis - HSY Earnings Trade

    In honor of National Chocolate Day, The Hershey Company (HSY) released what must be considered a sweet earnings report for investors.  As I write this the stock is at 100.50 up 4.99 or just over 5% on the day.  I decided in honor of the 'holiday' and HSY’s great results that I would go looking for a trade that correctly anticipated today’s rise in shares. Early Thursday, with HSY trading around 96.75 there was a buyer of the HSY Oct 28th 99.50 Calls in several lots at prices[...]

  • Market News | Oct 27, 2016, 10:42 AM

    Earnings Week of 10/31 - 11/4

    Earnings Week of 10/31 - 11/4

    As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.