• Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Election & VIX | Oct 24, 2016, 4:58 PM

    "Election Certainty" Not Showing Up In SPX Options Market

    "Election Certainty" Not Showing Up In SPX Options Market

    So we keep hearing that the market is unconcerned with respect to the upcoming election or stated another way the stock market is discounting a victory by Hillary Clinton.  I am always skeptical when being told that the market thinks one thing or another without some sort of numbers to back up the statement.  With respect to the market discounting a pending event as being a non-event I always turn to volatility.  Specifically, implied volatility. If stock market participants are discounting[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Oct 24, 2016, 1:14 PM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Lower Highs

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Lower Highs

    The bulls and the bears both took their shots at knocking the market off of the fence it's currently perched on. Neither team could get the job done. Stocks pretty much ended last week where they started it, but more than that they ended the week still trapped between a rock and a hard place. We'll look at the range bound stagnation after painting the bigger picture with the broad brush strokes of last week's and this week's economic news. Economic Data A pretty good dose of economic[...]

  • Trader Talk | Strategy | Oct 24, 2016, 9:13 AM

    The Time to Listen to Market Prophets? Not EVER!

    The Time to Listen to Market Prophets?  Not EVER!

    With so much uncertainty in the world most investors/traders get anxious and worried over losing money and start listening to market sages and so-called prophets.  That is typical and quite natural, yet when the underwear starts getting tight and we begin to sweat because the markets are misbehaving, well we tend to reach for whatever (or, whomever) makes the most sense.  To top the list of uncertainties include the upcoming election, which many are starting to believe is to be a Hillary[...]

  • Strategy | Trade Ideas | Oct 24, 2016, 9:10 AM

    Admiral SPO Puts his Mark on Microsoft

    Admiral SPO Puts his Mark on Microsoft

    Maury, Maury, Maury! Admiral SPO Puts his Mark on Microsoft. Knowing Maury’s thirst for shekels and his motto of "the best things in life are FREE" the Admiral launched a timely pre-earnings trade, a call time back spread. Maury, known for his Pavlovian behavior jumped in!  On Thursday, October 20th, the day Microsoft earnings were scheduled to come out after the bell, one day prior to OCT options expiration Admiral sent out the mother of all Maury trades at 2:56 PM CT: Sell[...]

  • Market News | Oct 23, 2016, 4:30 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/23/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/23/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. A Second VESTment Launches On Monday, October 18, CBOE Vest announced the launch of the CBOE Vest Defined Distribution Strategy Fund (VDDIX).  VDDIX, the second mutual fund to be launched by CBOE Vest, seeks to generate consistent periodic distributions while preserving capital over the long term. For more information,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 23, 2016, 8:04 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/17 - 10/21

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/17 - 10/21

    In a bear market we refer to market bounces as ‘relief rallies’.  The drop in volatility last week may be attributed to some sort of relief, whether with respect to expectations around the coming election or that a good part of earnings season has passed without any catastrophic results.  Whatever the reason the curve moved lower as the S&P moved up slightly and the shape is a little less steep. The long volatility funds had a tough time last week with VXX losing[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 22, 2016, 3:39 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 10/17 - 10/21

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 10/17 - 10/21

    VIX worked lower as we all survived, endured, or got through the final debate on this Presidential election.  The stock market moving up a little probably helped the cause as well.  November took over as the front month contract and finished the week at 15.575 or a spread of just over 2.20 when compared to the spot index.  This is actually a pretty narrow spread relative to how steep the VIX curve has been over the past few months. On Friday one trader came in with the[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 22, 2016, 3:10 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 10/17 - 10/21

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 10/17 - 10/21

    Last week the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) both gained a little ground, with RUI rising 0.41% and RUT winning the week by a nose by moving higher by 0.49%.  For the year RUT is about 3.4% higher than RUI. Both VIX and the Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) were lower last week as the equity markets survived (and we endured) the final debate before the presidential election.  The RVX / VIX ratio gained a bit with the drop in volatility but is still off 2016 highs. On[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 20, 2016, 3:40 PM

    Earnings Week of 10/24 - 10/28

    Earnings Week of 10/24 - 10/28

    This week is by far the busiest of earnings season with over 100 companies with  Weeklys available for trading reporting results.   As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.

  • Trader Talk | Oct 17, 2016, 10:56 AM

    Bullish Trade for National Pasta Day

    Bullish Trade for National Pasta Day

    In honor of National Pasta Day, I went searching for a trade that is bullish on a restaurant that serves its share of Italian food.  One Friday, I guess in anticipation of a surge in the consumption of food at Olive Garden, someone put on a bull call spread using options on Darden Restaurants (DRI).  When the stock was trading at 62.62 someone came in a purchased the DRI Nov 18th 62.50 Calls for 1.53 and sold the DRI Nov 18th 65.00 Calls for 0.55 and a net cost of 0.98.  A payoff at[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Oct 17, 2016, 9:43 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Damage Control

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Damage Control

    The bulls tried and tried, but it was a lost cause last week. Stocks never recovered from last Tuesday's stumble, and the bulls squandered their best chance to get back on a bullish track on Friday. All the major indices closed below key technical levels on Friday when the bullish effort that day petered out. Near-term the market still isn't completely past the point of no return, but it's close, and it's pointed in that direction.  However, while the tide may be pointed in a bearish direction,[...]

  • Strategy | Oct 17, 2016, 9:05 AM

    Admiral SPO Delivers a Perfect Maury Trade

    Admiral SPO Delivers a Perfect Maury Trade

    In August, Admiral SPO delivered a great BIDU trade.  Most HA Options Members were very grateful for such a brilliant gift from our fearless leader. As usual, Maury was exception to the norm, whose greed was only fueled by the talent at his disposal. He immediately began nagging for another over the top winner. Since Maury is not to be ignored, Admiral SPO obliged with another trade. On September 8, Admiral SPO sent out a QCOM Straddle: Buy the OCT 21 Expiry 62.50 Calls and 62.50 Puts.  QCOM[...]

  • Market News | Oct 16, 2016, 4:40 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/16/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/16/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. VIX FIX: Volatility’s October Surprise Earnings season is once again upon us, and has caused a bit of turbulence throughout markets.  The Dow Jones Index underwent a series of triple-digit moves this week, briefly dipping below 18,000 on Thursday before rebounding on Friday.  Another catalyst for[...]

  • Market News | Oct 16, 2016, 2:29 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 10/10 - 10/14

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 10/10 - 10/14

    The tug of war was on and it appears the VIX futures won last week as VIX rose about 20% and the October contract gained only 8%.  When we are in steep contango eventually VIX either rises or the futures give in, this time VIX blinked.  Remember next week October drops off the board and November becomes the front month.  If you are playing the election volatility game we do have Weeklys that expire closer to the vote, but the standard November contract will be the one that gets most[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Oct 16, 2016, 10:43 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/10 - 10/14

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/10 - 10/14

    On a percentage basis VIX was the big winner among the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes.  VIX gained just over 19% while VXST was up about 13%.  The longer end of the curve is often less responsive to drops in the stock market.  VXV and VXMT behaved as they normally do and rose about 6% and 4% respectively. The long ETPs had a nice week with the unleveraged funds gaining over 5% and the leveraged funds putting up gains of over 10%.  As I like to say, the[...]