• Market News | Nov 20, 2016, 4:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/20/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/20/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. RIA Forum on Options Strategies On Thursday, CBOE hosted the Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) Forum on Options Strategies.  The day-long event featured roundtable discussions and presentations with leading options industry professionals, including portfolio managers, ’40 Act Fund providers and CBOE[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 20, 2016, 8:08 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/14 - 11/18

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/14 - 11/18

    The Russell 2000 (RUT) widened its lead on the Russell 1000 (RUI) after trouncing the large cap index the previous week.  For the year, RUT is up about 15.8% while RUI is up one basis point under 7%.  If you had been fortunate enough to pick the bottom in RUT you would be up just shy of 38% since February of this year. Volatility spreads, as measured by the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) divided by VIX have widened out as they tend to do so in periods of low volatility. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 19, 2016, 12:48 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/14 - 11/18

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/14 - 11/18

    The short end of the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve took it on the chin as the holiday effect took a toll on VXST.  We may see a bit of a rise in VXST relative to the rest of the SPX oriented indexes as we get the Thanksgiving holiday behind us. VIX is what everyone watches when assessing market risk.  VVIX is what the volatility traders look to when trying to gauge how other volatility traders are feeling about the markets.  VVIX has dropped a bit, but[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 19, 2016, 11:57 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 11/14 - 11/18

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 11/14 - 11/18

    VIX returned to being a ‘tween’ this week finishing with a twelve handle.  The rest of the curve shifted lower as all fear with respect to a Trump administration seems to have dissipated.  At least for the moment.  There are some risk events between now and the end of 2016 which I’ll address after the table below. CBOE’s partner LiveVol has a great option analyzing tool and one of the features is that you can easily see At-the-Money implied volatility for different[...]

  • Block Trade Analysis - Bearish RUT Broken Wing Butterfly

    Block Trade Analysis - Bearish RUT Broken Wing Butterfly

    I got a heads up this morning about a pretty darn interesting trade that came into the Russell 2000 (RUT) pit this morning.  With RUT around 1300 there was a put butterfly that is looking for the small cap benchmark to be about 100 points lower on January 20th of next year.  Not only is that standard option expiration date it is also the day we will inaugurate our next president. The specific trade involved buying 7,000 RUT Jan 1240 Puts for 20.50, selling 14,000 RUT Jan 1200 Puts at 12.80,[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 15, 2016, 3:46 PM

    If a Trump Presidency Is Scary Why Is VIX So Low?

    If a Trump Presidency Is Scary Why Is VIX So Low?

    The world continues to adjust to the idea of a Trump presidency and there seems to be a lot of fear abounding.  For instance, I recently heard an economist state that he didn’t think even Donald Trump knows what action he’ll take as President.  We will all know the answers to what he’s going to do soon enough.  A question I recently got was, “If Trump is so scary why is VIX low?”  That’s a question I can answer. There are two types of government[...]

  • Cboe Benchmark Indexes | Nov 15, 2016, 1:44 PM

    Yield-Hungry Investors Explore CBOE’s Option-Selling Benchmarks During Bond Market “Rout”

    Yield-Hungry Investors Explore CBOE’s Option-Selling Benchmarks During Bond Market “Rout”

    Here are some highlights from recent news stories on the bond markets – A Wall Street Journal story had the headline “Government Bond Rout Deepens on Trump’s Economic Plans,” A Barron’s story noted that Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, sees “a rise in bond yields that could lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 6% in the next four or five years.” A New York Times story stated that “From Indonesia to the United States, government[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 14, 2016, 7:05 PM

    A Quick Look at Market Risk Through the End of 2016

    A Quick Look at Market Risk Through the End of 2016

    As the recent election drew near I would periodically post a chart showing the implied volatility for ATM SPX options over the many expirations we have available for trading.  Just for the heck of it I checked in on SPX implied volatility for every expiration available until the end of 2016.  The shape was interesting with a couple of bumps that occur around known events which may impact the equity market.  I decided to get out a calendar and see what other potentially market moving[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Nov 14, 2016, 12:45 PM

    BigTrends.com Post-Election Weekly Market Outlook

    BigTrends.com Post-Election Weekly Market Outlook

    To call last week as wild week would still be an understatement of epic proportions. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained 3.8% last week, which was big, but it was a victory made even more amazing by the fact that a Trump victory was supposed to be bad for the market (and for a few hours before Wednesday's open, it was very bad for stocks). A few hours after Donald Trump was confirmed as the next President though, the S&P 500 was not only up, but had cleared a key technical hurdle. The bulls don't[...]

  • Market News | Nov 14, 2016, 9:20 AM

    Why A Trump Presidency is Fed Positive

    Why A Trump Presidency is Fed Positive

    Many were scared of the reaction to a Donald Trump presidency, even the Federal Reserve open market committee. How do we know that? They telegraphed the uncertainty in their statement following the November 2 meeting. Well, not in so many words but they certainly telegraphed their intention to hold off in November raising rates, fearing some sort of backlash and financial calamity could ensue post election. This was a similar stance as before the Brexit vote, and while there was a decent amount of[...]

  • Market News | Nov 14, 2016, 9:15 AM

    Admiral SPO Delivers 439% Without a Chase!

    Admiral SPO Delivers 439% Without a Chase!

    On October 13, the eve of JPM’s Earnings Announcement, Admiral found a great trade opportunity: Buy a 1x4 67.50/70 Call BackSpread. Maury followed the Admiral without hesitation. Before the market opened, JPM’s earnings beat the estimates and revenue. However, the price action was fairly muted for the balance of October. Maury had the jitters, along with the market, due to the upcoming general elections. He was not used to waiting to get paid on a trade, but Admiral already had that[...]

  • Market News | Nov 13, 2016, 2:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/13/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/13/2016

    VIX FIX: The Volatility Event No One Saw Coming   Volatility jolted from its long slumber Tuesday night after a jaw-dropping win in the U.S. Presidential election by Donald Trump. Global markets were reacting to the surprise as state by state results came in, causing Dow futures to plunge approximately 750 points at one point during the night, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX Index) soared 55%, topping the 23 mark. VIX futures contracts also made history, setting a new volume record of 263,663[...]

  • Earnings Week of 11/14 - 11/18

    Earnings Week of 11/14 - 11/18

    Earnings moves to being all about retail - I personally am looking forward to company outlooks for the holiday shopping season.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.  

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 13, 2016, 12:12 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/7 - 11/11

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/7 - 11/11

    Regardless of the outcome, we all expected VXST to get routed last week and that’s exactly what happened.  I’ve worn this out, but the election was like an earnings announcement with respect to the broad-based equity markets.  We see volatility crushes occur on short dated options when a company reports and we saw that for SPX options this past week. The highlight of the table below is TYVIX.  Uncertainty came out of stocks, but made its way into the fixed[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 13, 2016, 7:56 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 11/7 - 11/11

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 11/7 - 11/11

    If a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear it did it make a sound?  More appropriately for this space, if market fear increases during non-US market hours was there any increase in fear?  Before this election this could be a philosophical debate among those of use that follow market volatility.  Now we know that the answer is yes.  I’ve already touched on the overnight market action in November VIX futures and the S&P 500 futures contracts so I won’t[...]

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