• Market News | Strategy | Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 29, 2016, 11:24 AM

    Election Night Option Liquidity

    Election Night Option Liquidity

    CBOE’s Extended Trading Hours (ETH) options session reached a significant milestone in the wake of the surprising U.S. election results, surpassing 100,000 contracts for the first time on November 9. CBOE introduced the ETH options session in 2015 on our SPX and VIX products. The primary motivation for offering these products during off-market hours was to provide market participants with the opportunity to react to global events at the time of those events taking place, rather than having[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Nov 28, 2016, 11:13 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Will The Rally Sputter Here?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Will The Rally Sputter Here?

    The volume may not have been great behind the shortened trading week's gains, but a gain in a gain nonetheless. And, this one was particularly noteworthy in that all the major indices made their way into record high territory.... at a time when they weren't supposed to. Can it last? That's the $64,000 question. From a momentum and technical perspective, the picture is bullish - yes, there's reason to expect more upside from here. But there is reason to believe the rally may sputter soon and possibly[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Nov 28, 2016, 9:15 AM

    Metals and Mining: Buyers Transition to New Groups

    Metals and Mining:  Buyers Transition to New Groups

    Over the past several years we have seen selling pressure intensify in metals and mining names as policy directives shifted away from this group. Not only was less money invested in coal, copper, materials and the like but costly regulations put some of these companies against the wall, and in many cases out of business totally. Stocks like Cliffs Natural, Freeport McMoran and US Steel are a shadow of their former selves. Once boasting robust stock prices and strong balance sheets, these and many[...]

  • Market News | Nov 26, 2016, 9:43 PM

    Earnings Week of 11/28 - 12/2

    Earnings Week of 11/28 - 12/2

    As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.

  • Election & VIX | 2016 Recap | Nov 26, 2016, 8:59 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 11/21 - 11/25

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 11/21 - 11/25

    VIX managed to threaten to break below 12 this past Friday as all seems right in the world.  Who would have thought all being right in the world would involve Donald Trump as our current president elect?  Before the hate mail comes, I’m neutral on this topic, the point I’m trying to make is who would have thought VIX would be so low just a couple of weeks after his upset victory?  Last week we experienced the slightest VIX curve move that I can recall.  However, when[...]

  • Market News | Nov 26, 2016, 6:31 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/21 - 11/25

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/21 - 11/25

    The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve mostly shifted lower this past week with VXST being the exception.  We give VXST a pass as far as information goes since holiday weeks tend to put pressure on a measure of 9-day volatility. My eye first went to TYVIX when looking this table over.  Bond volatility has been elevated as that market has taken center stage since the election.  TYVIX didn’t do a whole lot last week, but that is deceiving as it remains at the high[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 26, 2016, 6:01 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/21 - 11/25

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/21 - 11/25

    Small cap stocks seem to love the outcome of the election.  Since the market close on election-day the Russell 2000 (RUT) is up over 12% while the Russell 1000 (RUI) has gained just over 3%.  The 10% lead that RUT has on RUI has just about all come from the post-election rally for small caps.   The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) over VIX premium finished just under 47% this past week.  This is the second highest level for 2016.  A combination of higher[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Nov 22, 2016, 8:16 PM

    Block Trade Analysis - MDT Earnings

    Block Trade Analysis - MDT Earnings

    Shares of Medtronic (MDT) took it on the chin Tuesday in response to their most recent earnings report.  The average move for the stock over the last three years was up or down about 2% and the biggest drop over that time period was just over 4%.  Those numbers truly contrast with the recent 8.7% drop. Midday Monday, someone who had a pretty bearish outlook for MDT shares purchased 2500 MDT Nov 25th 79 Puts for 0.38.  To help pay for those options they also sold 2500 MDT Nov 25th 84[...]

  • Market News | Nov 21, 2016, 3:43 PM

    Earnings Week of 11/21 - 11/25

    Earnings Week of 11/21 - 11/25

    Apologies for the lateness of this post.  However there are still some interesting stocks left to report on this holiday shortened week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.

  • Market News | Nov 21, 2016, 2:17 PM

    New Hedging Regime with Higher Levels for CBOE SKEW Index the Past 3 Years

    New Hedging Regime with Higher Levels for CBOE SKEW Index the Past 3 Years

    When the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) drops below 14 (as it did in recent days), we sometimes hear questions such as – Is there still strong interest in portfolio hedging with index options? One metric that shows relative demand for out-of-the-money S&P 500® (SPX) put options is the CBOE SKEW Index (SKEW), with a daily price history that begins in 1990. Prior to 2014, the highest average daily closing value in a year for the SKEW Index was 122.5, but in each of the years[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Nov 21, 2016, 9:44 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Can The Rally Continue?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Can The Rally Continue?

    Even though the market didn't end the week on a wildly bullish foot, it ended the week with another respectable gain. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) was up 0.8% for the five day span following the previous week's 3.8% gain.... and all of that 3.8% gain came in just the last three days of that election week. Either way, the persistent bullishness has left the S&P 500 within striking distance of record highs. It's still got a bit of a valuation problem, but between the momentum and this bullish[...]

  • Trader Talk | Futures | Nov 21, 2016, 9:02 AM

    Bond Market Moves May Lead to - 'Normal Markets'?

    Bond Market Moves May Lead to - 'Normal Markets'?

    The amazing sell off in the bond market over the past couple weeks since the election ended did not go unnoticed by market players. I've seen a ton of articles now proclaiming the 'bull market in bonds is over', and the 'bear is going to growl over bonds'. Yet, the long bond has not even reached the highest levels seen in 2015! All the sudden, the calls for the end of the bond bull are everywhere? It might be true, but color me skeptical (so far). How many calls for this bond market bull to end?[...]

  • Market News | Nov 20, 2016, 4:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/20/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 11/20/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. RIA Forum on Options Strategies On Thursday, CBOE hosted the Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) Forum on Options Strategies.  The day-long event featured roundtable discussions and presentations with leading options industry professionals, including portfolio managers, ’40 Act Fund providers and CBOE[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 20, 2016, 8:08 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/14 - 11/18

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 11/14 - 11/18

    The Russell 2000 (RUT) widened its lead on the Russell 1000 (RUI) after trouncing the large cap index the previous week.  For the year, RUT is up about 15.8% while RUI is up one basis point under 7%.  If you had been fortunate enough to pick the bottom in RUT you would be up just shy of 38% since February of this year. Volatility spreads, as measured by the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) divided by VIX have widened out as they tend to do so in periods of low volatility. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 19, 2016, 12:48 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/14 - 11/18

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 11/14 - 11/18

    The short end of the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve took it on the chin as the holiday effect took a toll on VXST.  We may see a bit of a rise in VXST relative to the rest of the SPX oriented indexes as we get the Thanksgiving holiday behind us. VIX is what everyone watches when assessing market risk.  VVIX is what the volatility traders look to when trying to gauge how other volatility traders are feeling about the markets.  VVIX has dropped a bit, but[...]

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