• Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Aug 18, 2016, 1:27 PM

    Earnings Next Week - Aug 22 - Aug 26

    Earnings Next Week - Aug 22 - Aug 26

    There are just enough names to make things interesting next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Market News | Futures | Strategy | Aug 17, 2016, 1:14 PM

    Successful Launch for New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options

    Successful Launch for New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options

    On August 15 CBOE launched trading of the new S&P 500® Index (SPX) Monday-expiring Weeklys options. Daily trading volume for the new SPX Monday Weeklys in the first two days was 4,334 on August 15, and 10,829 on August 16. Institutional investors have told me that the SPX Monday Weeklys could have potential to be very helpful to them in managing their over-the-weekend risk. SPX Weeklys are one of CBOE’s fastest-growing products, with volume in 2015 setting a 10th consecutive annual[...]

  • VIX | Futures | Strategy | Aug 15, 2016, 10:12 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - On The Fence Amid Presidential Cycle

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - On The Fence Amid Presidential Cycle

    Though the market finished on a bullish foot two Friday's ago, that tone didn't help stocks one iota last week. When all was said and done, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) pretty much ended last week where it started it, and still on the fence as it's been for the better part of the past several weeks. Just for the record though, the uptrend is still the bulls' to lose. The bears just haven't been able to land any real damaging blows. We'll examine the market's odds and undertow below, after running[...]

  • Education | Aug 15, 2016, 9:17 AM

    Rate of Change Can Predict Future Momentum

    Rate of Change Can Predict Future Momentum

    The rate of change is defined as the speed for which a variable changes in a specified period of time. We look for a change in trend or just an inflection point key in on the rate of change to help determine where momentum may take place and perhaps estimate the trajectory. While it is often difficult to predict a top or bottom with any consistency, from a mathematical perspective we can use the rate of change to identify probable turning points. It is at these moments where significant gains can[...]

  • Market News | Aug 13, 2016, 9:45 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/8 - 8/12

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/8 - 8/12

    I considered skipping the first chart in this blog since the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes didn't move much last week.  The only thing to note here is that the shorter dated end did rise a bit more than the long end, but the curve remains fairly steep. Despite the fairly quiet week, VVIX rose to the mid-90's.  I'm hearing a mix of reasons which fall into two camps.  One - with steep contango put buyers are coming into the market to take advantage of the futures[...]

  • Market News | Aug 13, 2016, 1:42 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 8/8 - 8/12

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 8/8 - 8/12

    VIX was higher last week, but on the chart and table below that’s all that moved up.  The entire curve was lower as the steep contango that everyone has been talking about got a little less steep. On Friday, the biggest VIX option trade appears to be expecting VIX to rally sometime in the next few weeks and take the September futures with it.  With spot VIX around 11.50 and the September VIX futures around 15.00 someone came in and purchased the VIX Sep 17 Calls for 1.24[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Aug 13, 2016, 7:00 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 8/8 - 8/12

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 8/8 - 8/12

    The race between large cap and small cap stocks came down to a photo finish last week as the Russell 1000 (RUI) was up 0.06% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) ended up losing 0.13%.  This slight win for RUI didn’t do much as far as the year to date performance comparison goes as RUT is still ahead of RUI by 1.4% as RUT is up 8.27% in 2016 while RUI is up only 6.87%. The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) was lower last week while VIX gained a little.  The result when[...]

  • Market News | Aug 12, 2016, 2:01 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 8/12/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 8/12/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. Another Expiration to Trade CBOE’s suite of Weeklys options offerings on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to grow with Wednesday, Friday and now -- Monday -- expirations.  The first series in CBOE’s new SPX Monday Weeklys will be listed tomorrow, Monday, August 15.  Time to get that weekend[...]

  • Market News | Aug 12, 2016, 12:43 PM

    VIX Futures Record Open Interest of 543,192, as VIX Index Hits 2-Year Low

    VIX Futures Record Open Interest of 543,192, as VIX Index Hits 2-Year Low

    On August 5 the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) closed at 11.39 (its lowest daily close in more than two years) and the VIX futures established a new all-time record high open interest of 537,201. On August 9 the VIX Index closed at 11.66, and the VIX futures open interest hit a new all-time record of 543,192.  RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VIX INDEX AND OPEN INTEREST While many market watchers believe that trading activity often picks up at times when volatility and the VIX Index rise, it[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Aug 11, 2016, 5:47 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 8/15 - 8/19

    Earnings Next Week - 8/15 - 8/19

    Next week we start to reach the end of a pretty uneventful earnings season.  The week is dominated by retailers which is always a signal that earnings season is coming to a close.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Aug 11, 2016, 4:54 PM

    New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options To Launch on August 15

    New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options To Launch on August 15

    CBOE plans to list S&P 500® Index (SPX) Monday-expiring Weeklys options, beginning August 15, pending regulatory approval. SPX Weeklys are one of CBOE’s fastest-growing products, with volume in 2015 setting a 10th consecutive annual record. With the expected introduction of SPX “Monday Weeklys,” CBOE will offer SPX options with Monday, Wednesday and Friday expirations. AVAILABLE EXPIRATIONS The table below shows the S&P 500 options expirations (through Sept. 9) that[...]

  • Strategy | Aug 11, 2016, 9:59 AM

    How Admiral Beat Maury at His Own Game

    How Admiral Beat Maury at His Own Game

    Maury felt pretty smug about taking the Admiral’s FB trade, however, he was not prepared for BIDU. The Admiral had his mojo working as he went stalking an uber Maury trade, and it ended up a doozie! On 7/28, BIDU was scheduled to report earnings after the close. The Admiral sent out a Bearish 3x9x6 AUG Put Vertical Ratio Spread: +160/-145/+140 strikes, paying $2.35 x 3 While EPS was slightly above expectations, BIDU opened down and the Admiral sent an order for a partial exit #732A: Sell[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Aug 8, 2016, 10:56 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Upside Breakout Amid VIX Lows

    Weekly Market Outlook - Upside Breakout Amid VIX Lows

    Against the odds, though with the bigger-picture tide, last Tuesday's alarming intraday pullback ended up being just the regrouping the bulls needed to finally stage a breakthrough rally.  On the heels of a better-than-expected jobs report for July, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) pushed up and off a key short-term moving average line to finally punch through a resistance line that had been nagging it since mid-July. Do we take the clue at face value and treat it as a breakout?  Or, was[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Aug 8, 2016, 10:15 AM

    Noise Levels Rising - Time to Turn it Down

    Noise Levels Rising - Time to Turn it Down

    The pitch level of noise surrounding the markets is starting to elevate, and wouldn't you know it - right near the all time highs.  Right on cue!  As we saw markets take out resistance on Friday following the strong jobs report, we continue to hear the drumbeat from the bearish side, that this most unbelievable market rally has to end soon.  Of course, no time estimate on that prediction - like the old economist's saw, 'give em a number or a date, but never both'.  Especially[...]

  • Market News | Aug 7, 2016, 10:58 AM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup –8/5/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup –8/5/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. Ready…Set…Ring On Wednesday, CBOE hosted representatives from The Decathlon Organization and Rush University Medical Center for an opening bell-ringing ceremony commemorating the inaugural Chicago Decathlon.  This event unites amateur athletes from around the world to compete in a series of world-class[...]