• Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 25, 2016, 3:17 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/31 - 6/3

    Earnings Next Week - 5/31 - 6/3

    It's a short week, next week as we move into the summer months.  Despite that we still have a few companies set to report earnings next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Futures | Strategy | May 23, 2016, 10:45 AM

    Smart Volatility(TM): Dynamic Management of Volatility as an Asset Class

    Smart Volatility(TM): Dynamic Management of Volatility as an Asset Class

    Editor's note - David Skordal, Partner/Portfolio Manager, ABR Dynamic Funds, LLC, is the author of this blog The dips in August 2015 and January 2016 have served as reminders that the U.S. equity markets are now in the eighth year of a bull run, and equity crises happen on a regular basis. In the last 30 years, there was Black Monday, the Savings & Loan Crisis, the Russian Financial Crisis, the Tech Bubble Collapse, the Credit Crisis, the Flash Crash, and the Greek Crisis, just to name a few.[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | May 23, 2016, 9:49 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Neutral With Downside Risk

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Neutral With Downside Risk

    The bulls and bears ended up in a stalemate last week. Both sides of the table looked as if they were going to take control at different points, but when all was said and done, neither side had the conviction need to rock the market out of its rut. The S&P 500's (SPX) (SPY) close of 2052.32 was only 0.27% better than the week-earlier close, and still right in the middle of some major support and resistance. The BigTrends TrendScore (for stocks) is a slightly anemic 56.6 out of a possible[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | May 23, 2016, 9:10 AM

    A Market Under Distribution

    A Market Under Distribution

    The stock market is under distribution, this is a fact. Simply put, professional selling overwhelms the buying and prices head lower.   As the markets ebb and flow with the money coming in/out we are constantly reminded about the psychological effects of a bear market.  Yes, even after the huge rally off the February lows this could still be considered a bear market.  Some of the strongest rallies occur during bear markets, but we cannot dismiss the internal characteristics. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 22, 2016, 6:00 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/16 - 5/20

    The combination of VIX moving lower and June becoming the front month put some pressure on the June futures last week. I think maybe the lack of news flow expected over the next couple of weeks has something to do with that as well. Note the bifurcated futures performance from last week with many longer dated futures rising, which maybe could be the risk of higher rates or an ‘interesting’ presidential election hovering over the markets. Finally, I always like to periodically point out[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 21, 2016, 12:47 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/16 - 5/20

    With the S&P 500 zig zagging this week, but finishing up by just over a quarter of one percent the curve was little changed. With one exception, VXST dropped 10% after we got past the FOMC minutes and the markets started to look forward to nothing for the next couple of weeks. VIX and VXMT rose and VXV was lower. I can’t remember the curve shifting like this ever, but since three out of the four moves were pretty small I wouldn’t read too much into it. The long VIX related[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 21, 2016, 10:18 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/16 - 5/20

    Talk of the Fed raising rates after the June 16 – 17 two-day meeting that is looming has been heating up. If those that control such things are seeing pockets of growth in the US economy and consider it safe to raise rates, then growth must be back in fashion right? Well, that’s how the Russell 2000 (RUT) acted last week relative to the Russell 1000 (RUI) with the small cap benchmark rising a little more than 0.5% more than the Russell 1000 gained. RUT is still down on the year, but made[...]

  • Market News | May 20, 2016, 3:02 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 5/20/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 5/20/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. William Brodsky: Legacy Continues CBOE held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders yesterday.  The company announced the addition of William M. Farrow III, President and CEO of Urban Partnership Bank, to its board, and that Chairman William Brodsky revealed that he would not be a candidate for director in 2017.  After[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 19, 2016, 3:48 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/23 - 5/27

    Earnings Next Week - 5/23 - 5/27

    Again, next week is all about retail which should be interesting since the results have been pretty mixed.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  In the case of HPE (in italics below) there was less than 3 years of[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Education | Trade Ideas | May 19, 2016, 1:43 PM

    The United Kingdom has Options….and So Do You

    The United Kingdom has Options….and So Do You

    The CBOE is the leader in listed Index and Equity options – and every so often there is a geopolitical event that can have reverberations in our financial markets. In just the past handful of years, we have experienced significant moves in volatility (both realized and implied) from elections and referendums, typically stemming from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. On Thursday June 23rd, a referendum will be held to decide whether or not Britain should leave the European Union. Keep[...]

  • VIX | Futures | May 17, 2016, 4:50 PM

    Big VIX Spreads, the Fed, and the Flattening Yield Curve

    Big VIX Spreads, the Fed, and the Flattening Yield Curve

    Tomorrow afternoon (1 P.M. Chicago time) the market will digest the minutes from the April FOMC meeting. In advance of that release (which happens after every FOMC meeting) two (non-voting) Federal Reserve Board Presidents, John Williams (San Francisco) and Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta), both gave speeches that indicated the Fed could hike rates again as soon as June. The next FOMC meeting takes place on June 14th and 15th and includes a “Summary of Economic Projections” as well as a press[...]

  • Market News | May 17, 2016, 1:46 PM

    Rinse and Repeat

    Rinse and Repeat

    At my last writing on Monday, May 9th, my position was ten short SVXY puts for the March 13th expiration at the 54 strike, sold at $1.40 per contract, or $1,385.20 received.  My choices in disposing of the position (or allowing it to be disposed for me) was to either buy these puts back before Friday or allow the contracts to expire and accept assignment of shares at $54, should conditions dictate. On Tuesday, May 10th at 9:40 AM, I noticed that SVXY opened above $56 and, not knowing what would[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 16, 2016, 10:45 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - On The Verge Of A Bigger Pullback?

    Weekly Market Outlook - On The Verge Of A Bigger Pullback?

    The market may have started the previous week on a bullish foot, but it certainly didn't end the week on one. Not only did the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) log three straight losing days to end last week's trading, but it broke below a key support level it couldn't really afford to break. Stocks still aren't past the point of no return yet, but it's alarmingly close. We'll dissect the odds below after running down last week's and this week's major economic headlines. Economic Data Not a lot of economic[...]

  • Sometimes It's Best to Sit Back and Wait

    Sometimes It's Best to Sit Back and Wait

    As traders, we make our living each and every day trying to find the best trading opportunities.  For some, daily profits are the lifeblood of their existence not just feeding the ego but also paying the rent, putting food on the table and paying the bills.  This of course is the wrong approach for anyone who really chooses this career, as the timeframe chosen is critical as is the amount of capital in reserve.  Most of us realize the best possible position is to be well-capitalized,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 15, 2016, 3:54 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/9 - 5/13

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/9 - 5/13

    After starting the week off on a bullish note, the S&P 500 finished out down just over a half a percent for the week. VIX was up just a bit more than 2%, most likely being held back by weakness that was associated with the S&P 500 moving higher on Monday and Tuesday last week. The spread between the May VIX future and spot index is pretty narrow finishing Friday at less than a point. Not only did the spread between the May futures and spot VIX index narrow, but a portion of the curve actually[...]