• Market News | Jun 29, 2016, 2:49 PM

    A Little Perspective on Yesterday's Record High SKEW

    A Little Perspective on Yesterday's Record High SKEW

    We have data for the CBOE SKEW Index (SKEW) going back to the first trading day in 1990. Yesterday, SKEW finished the day at the highest level over this period closing at 153.66. The chart below shows the annual high low and average by year going back to 1990. That highest green dot is yesterday’s close. So exactly what does that mean? In simple terms it means the relative implied volatility for SPX out of the money puts is elevated when compared to near at the money puts. SKEW[...]

  • Market News | Jun 29, 2016, 2:42 PM

    CBOE SKEW Index Rose to 153.66 on June 28, Its All-Time High

    CBOE SKEW Index Rose to 153.66 on June 28, Its All-Time High

    On June 28 the CBOE SKEW Index rose to 153.66, the all-time high for its price history that began in January 1990. Here are the relatively high values for the CBOE SKEW Index in recent days -- 15-Jun                   140.91 16-Jun                   142.50 17-Jun                   137.94 20-Jun               [...]

  • Education | Jun 29, 2016, 1:14 PM

    CBOE RMC Europe Keynote Address Speaker Announced

    CBOE RMC Europe Keynote Address Speaker Announced

    Independence Day is just around the corner which means I’m starting to look forward to my Fall travel schedule. Two of the things I get to do (I say this as I consider it a great perk of my job) is attend CBOE’s Risk Management conferences in Europe and Asia. The European version is scheduled for September 26 – 28 when we return to the Powerscourt Hotel in County Wicklow outside of Dublin Ireland. Today I learned that the keynote speaker will be Jim VandeHei who was a co-founder[...]

  • Market News | Jun 28, 2016, 11:06 AM

    Did Social Media Sentiment Regarding the Pound Predict Brexit?

    Did Social Media Sentiment Regarding the Pound Predict Brexit?

    One commentator described the Brexit process was described as entering uncharted territory over the weekend. The same could be said for gauging social media sentiment. Our friends at Social Market Analytics continue to take a look at data that may have been a predictor of an outcome that the pollsters and bookies got very wrong. I received a couple of charts this morning and one completely stands out. Below is a chart of the sentiment with respect to the British Pound versus the US Dollar[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Trade Ideas | Jun 28, 2016, 9:19 AM

    How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

    How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

    Editors note - the following blog was put together by a team of interns from CBOE.  Nicholas Ghilardi will be a Junior at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign and is majoring in Engineering Physics with a minor in Mathematics. Gillian Hood will be Junior at Vanderbilt University and is majoring in Economics with minors in Corporate Strategy and Finance. Noah Silverman will be a Sophomore at Washington University in St. Louis and is majoring in Finance.  Last Thursday,[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Jun 27, 2016, 12:34 PM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Where Things Stand After Brexit

    Weekly Market Outlook - Where Things Stand After Brexit

    Through Thursday, not only was the market's action palatable, it was downright bullish. Investors were increasingly confident the Brexit wouldn't happen. Big mistake. When traders realized the "leave" crowd just edged out the "remain" crowd, it pulled the rug out from underneath the bullishness. When all was said and done, Friday's 3.6% plunge from the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) translated into a loss of 1.6% for the week. Now what? Good question. Perhaps the one-day drubbing[...]

  • Education | Jun 27, 2016, 11:24 AM

    Left Tail Risk for CBOE Benchmark Indexes: Nine Histograms

    Left Tail Risk for CBOE Benchmark Indexes: Nine Histograms

    Volatility in the many worldwide markets shot up last week, which has left investors looking for the better ways to manage risk. Some investors still have the misconception that all options strategies are more risky than common stock and bond strategies, but the histogram analysis below shows that nine CBOE benchmark indexes have less left tail risk than the S&P 500® total return index since mid-1986. A total of 9 histograms were created, directly comparing the monthly returns of the PUT,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 26, 2016, 6:30 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Volatility and Options - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Volatility and Options - 6/20 - 6/24

    Both large and small cap stocks got hit on a week over week basis, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) holding up slightly better (-1.47%) than the Russell 1000 (RUI) which lost 1.62%. For the year both are down less than 1% with RUI holding a slight year to date performance edge of 0.40%. In the past when there is heightened concern regarding the global equity markets the RVX / VIX premium tends to drop to low level. That happened in early 2016 and that happened again Friday as the premium[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 26, 2016, 2:41 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 6/20 - 6/24

    On Thursday the world appeared to have dodged a bullet, but much like counting your chickens before the hatch, the market reacted a little too quickly and early to the assumed outcome of the EU referendum in Britain. The result was Friday which does not need to be rehashed here. The week over week changes for VIX and the standard monthly VIX futures appear below. Things we look more dramatic if I’d use the Thursday to Friday changes to construct the chart. Periodically I’ll[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 25, 2016, 1:12 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/20 - 6/24

    Global stocks took it on the chin Friday after the outcome for the vote in Britain determined that the majority of voters want to break from the European Union. Usually I show the week over week change for VXST, VIX, VXV, and VXMT to lead off this blog. Because the week over week change doesn’t tell the full story I included the closing prices from Thursday as well. The lowest line on the chart shows the closing levels for each of these S&P 500 oriented volatility indexes the day before[...]

  • Strategy | Jun 24, 2016, 3:19 PM

    Why A Non-Directional Trade Did Well Today Despite the Big Move

    Why A Non-Directional Trade Did Well Today Despite the Big Move

    Trade #1 did absolutely great today, and it was a basic non-Directional trade that made 20% today with the market going drastically against us. The trade was a balanced Butterfly trade in SPX in the August 19 expiration, and the width of the Butterfly was 40.The trade was put on yesterday when SPX was around 2105.The trade was put on using all Calls. Here is the trade using a 1 contract example. Buy 1 2065 and sell 2 2105's and Buy 1 2145. I bought some units at $5.40, $5.30, and $5.20. A unit[...]

  • Market News | Jun 24, 2016, 3:15 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 6/24/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 6/24/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets.  VIX Futures Hits Its Note The CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE) announced today that VIX Futures hit a new record during its extended hours trading session following the announcement of a British exit from the European Union. An estimated  235,000 contracts changed hands, surpassing its previous record of 140,811[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Jun 24, 2016, 1:45 PM

    A Quick Thought on VIX Price Action Today

    A Quick Thought on VIX Price Action Today

    I’m in New York today and have been in contact with several different types of market participants. A common theme in the conversations I’ve had about today’s action was that VIX seemed too low relative to the panic going on in global equity markets. VIX in the low 20’s didn’t have the feel of a market panic equivalent to the S&P 500 losing over 3%. However, it is worth noting that VIX moved higher overnight, but has been hovering in a range most of the day. The[...]

  • Market News | Trade Ideas | Jun 24, 2016, 1:26 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 6/27 - 7/1

    Earnings Next Week - 6/27 - 7/1

    It is a very quiet week as once again only four companies with short dated options will be reporting earnings.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • VIX | Futures | Jun 24, 2016, 11:57 AM

    Skew Charts Show Higher Implied Volatility for O-T-M Puts on SPX, RUT, EFA and FXB

    Skew Charts Show Higher Implied Volatility for O-T-M Puts on SPX, RUT, EFA and FXB

    After the results of the Brexit referendum were announced , the values of several volatility indexes at CBOE shot up, indicating that overall implied volatility had increased for many securities worldwide. A key issue for some cautious investors who want to hedge is – what are the implied volatilities for various out-of-the-money (O-T-M) put options that can be used to hedge my portfolio?   Below are Livevol skew charts for four key securities – SPX, RUT, EFA, and FXB –[...]