This past week was basically a tie between small and large cap stocks as the Russell 2000 (RUT) and Russell 1000 (RUI) were both up about 1.5%. Four months into 2017 and RUI continues to maintain a lead of about 3.3% over RUT.
Last week VIX got smashed as did the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX). A return to the low end of the range resulted in the VIX / RVX relationship returning to higher levels.
With Weeklys available for trading all kinds of alternatives that[...]
Shorting UVXY is sort of like making pancakes and flipping them in the air and catching them with the pan. You can entertain yourself and others like that for a while, and you just may accumulate a large stack of perfectly browned piping-hot pancakes, but sooner or later some raw batter is going to hit the kitchen floor, and that is not much fun. And what if everyone eats up all your pancakes in the meantime, and you're stuck with nothing but a kitchen-floor disaster? Well, on Thursday,[...]
Everyone knows what an ear worm is and if not you will now. It is basically when a song is stuck in your head. Since Monday REM’s Orange Crush has been on constant replay in my head. VIX losing 26% and the front month down 14% definitely qualify as a volatility crush.
Since all this crushing was caused by events in Europe (France specifically) we will take a look at the week over week VSTOXX and associated futures term structure change. Now I have Officer Barbrady[...]
Spring has arrived and our home town Chicago baseball teams (Cubs & White Sox) lead their respective Central Divisions. Likewise the Chinese and Emerging equity markets have also taken an early lead in the global economic recovery this year.
On April 18, 2017 IMF delivered their World Economic Outlook, a report which raised the global economic outlook in 2017 to 3.5% and 3.6% in 2018 citing “Stronger activity and expectations of more robust global demand…” Their[...]
CBOE turns 44 today, and we thought we'd provide 44 "fun facts" to mark the occasion.
The first day of trading for CBOE was April 26, 1973.
911 option contracts traded on the first day in 1973.
There were only 16 stocks with options on the first day.
Seats at CBOE were originally offered at $10,000.
Initially put options were not permitted for trading.
In 1973, the Black Scholes model was published in the Journal of Political Economy.
In 1977 CBOE was permitted[...]
I have a handful of former Options Institute students who like to keep me up on their trading. Yesterday morning I got an email from one who decided to take the other side of the big move to the upside in the S&P 500 (SPX). Just after the market open, when the SPX was at 2374, the trader sold the SPX Apr 24th 2370 Call for 6.40 and purchased the SPX Apr 24th 2380 Call for 1.45 and a net credit of 4.95. These options are Monday Weeklys and they expired on the close yesterday. [...]
Today I came across an Iron Condor initiated using MCD options expiring Friday and in anticipation of tomorrow morning's earnings announcement. Click on the image to watch today's episode and then read below for some more color on this neutral earnings play.
The colorful payout diagram below notes the short strikes were 3.5% higher and 3.9% lower than where MCD was trading. The average move for MCD stock is up or down just over 2% in reaction to earnings (based on the last 12 quarters). [...]
Small caps had a good week last week as the Russell 2000 (RUT) rose about 2.5% which places it up 1.67% for the year. The large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) was up just under 1% and is not up 4.96% for 2017.
VIX has worked higher as geopolitical risks have risen in the past couple of weeks and the Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) has done the same. The result is a lower RVX to VIX risk premium, with this measure actually closing at a 2017 low on Friday.
On Friday there[...]
The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets.
S&P 500 (SPX ) Options Volume
Average daily volume (ADV) for SPX options is up for a fifth consecutive year.
ADV for SPX options rose to 1.18 million contracts in the first quarter of 2017, up 15% over the first quarter of 2016.
Open interest for SPX options was 14.5 million contracts[...]
April VIX was retired last week and May became the front month. We have a volatility event this weekend which has resulted in a bit of front month vs spot VIX backwardation. I have a feeling that will not be the case as the election results are digested starting Sunday night.
The curve below shows VSTOXX versus the available VSTOXX futures contracts. Like VIX, April VSTOXX was retired with a settlement level in the mid-20's. Backwardation is a bit more obvious here which[...]
The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve is a textbook, “here’s what it looks like in front of an event”. The event being the first round (yes it doesn’t end Sunday) of the French Election. We will know when the markets open Monday morning who the two finalists are to be the next Presidence del al Republique. I do expect VXST to fall back in line come Monday morning, either with the longer dated contracts rallying but more likely due to VXST dropping[...]
We hit the busiest part of earnings season this week. The stocks below have Weeklys available for trading and the numbers represent the last 12 quarters of one day price reactions to their announcement (with one exception - PYPL). As always double check the dates as none have been confirmed.
Who wants to buy high and sell low? Why would anyone buy calls before the closing bell and sell them to someone for half price the next morning when the opening bell rings? When would anyone feel okay about buying for 88 cents and then selling for 45? Answer: When the calls are just a wrapper, a box designed to keep something else safe while in transit, like a shoe box protects the merchandise on the delivery truck so that your purchase isn't thrown on the porch one shoe at a time[...]
Before the paint was really dry I started tinkering with the reverse collar set up yesterday. The first thing I did, acting upon a suspicion (you could call it a wish) that the VIX would sift downward the next day (which is today, as I write this), is that I closed the short put. To recap the spread, it was as such, all of it opened yesterday, April 18th:
Shares of UVXY sold short at 19.48
Put for the April 21st expiration, 19.00 strike, sold short for 0.62
Call for the April 21st expiration,[...]
The first round of the French Election occurs this coming weekend and the implied volatility of broad based options in Europe is taking notice. The European version of VIX is VSTOXX which is based on Euro Stoxx 50 Index options. Today VSTOXX closed over 24.00 as Euro Stoxx 50 options are pricing in high volatility over the next few weeks in anticipation of the market’s reaction to the French Election.
The VSTOXX futures market also (correctly) anticipated a rise in VSTOXX[...]