larry-mcmillan

Larry McMillan

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research capacity, he edits and contributes to his firm’s publications: Daily Volume Alerts, The Option Strategist and The Daily Strategist – derivative products newsletters covering equity, index, and futures options. Finally, he speaks on option strategies at many seminars and colloquia in the United States, Canada, and Europe. He is often seen on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and is quoted in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Data Broadcasting’s “Exchange” magazine, Futures Magazine, theStreet.com, Active Trader Magazine and many others. In 2011, Mr. McMillan received the prestigious Sullivan Award in recognition on behalf of his outstanding contributions to the growth and integrity of the U.S. options markets.

  • Market News | Sep 4, 2015, 10:25 AM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - Intermediate-term Outlook Remains Bearish - 9.4.15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - Intermediate-term Outlook Remains Bearish - 9.4.15

    Some of the intermediate-term indicators seem ready to capitulate and issue buys, but the overall picture is far from "all clear" at this point. Despite recurring volatility, $SPX has traded in a new range in the last couple of weeks -- 1870 to 1990. There has been a lot of talk in the media about a "retest" of the lows, where amateur technicians are saying that the market "almost always" retests the lows of a sharp selloff. In fact, with so many people looking for a[...]

  • Market News | Aug 28, 2015, 3:30 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Negative

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Negative

    The relative calm of the stock market trading in a range for six months was shattered in recent days. As recently as August 18th, all was calm. But beginning with a sharp 17-point drop in $SPX on the 19th, the rout was on. The support area at 1980-2000 was blown away, but it may offer some resistance on the way back up. There should also be major resistance at the 2040 level. Meanwhile, Monday's lows at 1870 represents support. If that is violated, last October's lows at 1820 are the next support[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Aug 7, 2015, 11:49 AM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8.7.15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8.7.15

    The stock market continues to hover in its trading range. Despite some promising buy signals from sentiment extremes in put-call ratios and $VIX, there was no follow-through by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX). We have often said -- and still maintain -- that price is the most important indicator. Regardless, as long as $SPX remains in the broad 2040-2135 trading range, the chart is neutral. Equity-only put-call ratios gave buy signals a little over a week ago, and they remain strongly on[...]

  • Market News | Jul 31, 2015, 11:29 AM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7.31.15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7.31.15

    The chart of $SPX is the least bullish of the indicators. SPX remains in the 2040-2135 trading range that has bound it for most of this year. Basically this is a neutral chart. Put-call ratios are much more encouraging. A strong buy signal has been generated by the standard put-call ratio (Figure 2). The weighted equity-only put-call ratio is also bullish (Figure 3). Market breadth remains mixed, with the NYSE-based indicator now on a buy signal, but the "stocks only" is not. Volatility[...]

  • Market News | Jul 24, 2015, 12:07 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 7.24.15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 7.24.15

    $SPX now appears to failing at the top of the range, thereby remaining within the 2040 - 2135 trading range. Hence, the $SPX chart remains neutral as long as it's in that trading range. Put-call ratios are mixed, but generally are in an oversold state. The standard ratio continues to rise and is thus on a sell signal.  The weighted ratio, however, has rolled over to a buy signal. Market breadth has been poor lately, and that has caused some concern.  Both ratios have now reached an oversold[...]

  • Market News | Jul 17, 2015, 12:18 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 7/17/15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 7/17/15

    The oversold conditions that existed last week generated a strong week-long rally. The move above 2100 was constructive, but the chart won't really turn bullish until new highs are made and held.That would require a move above 2135. Put buying has remained relatively heavy, despite the rally. As a result, the equity-only put-call ratios remain in an uptrend and thus remain on sell signals. Currently both breadth oscillators are clinging to buy signals. During this rally, we have literally seen a[...]

  • Market News | Jun 26, 2015, 5:53 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 6/26/15

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - 6/26/15

    The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) continues to trade in a fairly tight range, which is beginning to frustrate just about everyone. There is support at 2070, and the 2130-2135 area is now strong resistance. As a result, the $SPX chart is neutral. Equity-only put-call ratios are about as noncommital as I can remember. Both are drifting sideways, meaning they're not really on a strong trend of any kind. The market breadth oscillators are also split in their[...]

  • Market News | Jun 12, 2015, 12:55 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary: Market Remains Mired in its Trading Range 6/12/15

    Weekly Market Commentary: Market Remains Mired in its Trading Range 6/12/15

    Despite some indications this week that the market might break down, it did not do so. In fact, the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) held near the previous support level of 2070, thereby strengthening that level as market support. On the upside, there is resistance at the old highs of 2135, so $SPX remains locked in the 2070-2135 trading range. Equity-only put-call ratios are split in their signals at the current time. The standard ratio is declining, and is thus on a buy signal. Conversely,[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 29, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.29.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.29.15

    $SPX remains stalled just below the all-time highs, which are at 2135. The support at 2070 (the lows of March and April) remains in place. Equity-only put-call ratios are technically still on sell signals. But have been drifting sideways for a couple of weeks. Market breadth oscillators gave sell signals prior to Tuesday's market decline. They remain on those sell signals, despite the broad market's attempt to recover. Volatility indices and derivatives are still quite bullish. Yes, they spiked[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | May 23, 2015, 12:22 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.22.15

    Everything is grinding to a halt in this market, and that is probably a sign that an explosive move lies in the not-too-distant future. $SPX has support at the old highs (2120). If that should fail, there should be a good support level at 2070.   Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts.  However, it is obvious that these ratios have just been trending sideways for the past few days. Market breadth has been something[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | May 15, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.15.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.15.15

    The broad stock market has continued to frustrate both bulls and bears by remaining within a trading range for quite some time.  However, today, $SPX closed at a new all-time high and thus is on the verge of an upside breakout.  While this produced much glee on CNBC, there could be problems once again if this breakout is not confirmed. The simplest confirmation would be another $SPX close at new all-time highs, and this time above the all-time intra-day high at 2125.92. Equity-only put-call[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | May 8, 2015, 2:00 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.8.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.8.15

    The stock market weakened considerably this week, and many of the indicators are now following suit with sell signals.  But $SPX price action continues to frustrate both bulls and bears, as it refuses to trend higher or lower.   So now for $SPX, there is support at 2067 - 2072 (the April and May lows), with resistance above at 2125 (the all-time highs). Equity-only put-call ratios have deteriorated badly this week. Both ratios have rolled over to sell signals. Market breadth was the[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 1, 2015, 10:08 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold. Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Apr 24, 2015, 10:30 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.24.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.24.15

    Both bulls and bears are frustrated by recent action. Most recently, $SPX has made repeated attempts to challenge the all-time highs, but it has not yet been able to break out.  There is resistance in the 2110- 2120 area that has contained all advances. In any case, the $SPX chart is still neutral until it breaks out of the triangle in a convincing way. Equity-only put-call ratios have been bullish since around the first of the month. But this week, they began to curl upwards -- a move which[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Apr 17, 2015, 9:51 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.17.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.17.15

    There was some positive action this week, but in the end it's still a trading range market.   $SPX moved to the high end of the range almost challenging the all-time highs, but it could not break out on the upside.  There has been some improvement in the status of the other indicators, but unless $SPX can break out to the upside, it will not really matter. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as their 21-day moving averages continue to drop nearly every day. Market breadth[...]