larry-mcmillan

Larry McMillan

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research capacity, he edits and contributes to his firm’s publications: Daily Volume Alerts, The Option Strategist and The Daily Strategist – derivative products newsletters covering equity, index, and futures options. Finally, he speaks on option strategies at many seminars and colloquia in the United States, Canada, and Europe. He is often seen on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and is quoted in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Data Broadcasting’s “Exchange” magazine, Futures Magazine, theStreet.com, Active Trader Magazine and many others. In 2011, Mr. McMillan received the prestigious Sullivan Award in recognition on behalf of his outstanding contributions to the growth and integrity of the U.S. options markets.

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Apr 10, 2015, 1:45 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.10.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.10.15

    The stock market has traded in an ever-narrowing range for over a month now.  The most recent range has been bounded by 2090 on the upside and 2050 on the downside.  But now $SPX is trying to break through 2090.  Even if that is accomplished, there is still considerable overhead resistance at 2110-2120 (the all-time highs).     Most of the other indicators have taken on a more positive slant in the last week or so.  As a prime example, the equity-only put-call[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Mar 27, 2015, 2:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.15

    When $SPX broke down through the 2090 support level, that was a very negative sign, especially since stocks failed at the old highs.   There is now strong resistance at 2110-2120 (the February and March peaks), as well as at 2090 (again).  As for support, the initial support level will be 2040, the early March lows.  Below that, there is support at 1970-1990, which is the area of the December and January lows. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on sell signals and are[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Futures | Mar 20, 2015, 9:00 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

    In figure 1, the support at 2040 and the resistance at the recent all-time highs of 2120 are marked as a trading range.  Until $SPX breaks out of that range, it really doesn't have a trend in place.  To support that conclusion, the indicators are somewhat mixed. Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals during this latest rally. Breadth hasn't been terrific during this rally, but it was strong enough to pull the "stocks only" oscillator into a mildly overbought[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Mar 13, 2015, 10:23 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.13.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.13.15

    The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), had been laboring at new highs, near 2120. Then, last Friday it broke down below support at 2090, which turned the chart bearish. Equity-only put ratios curled upwards late last week and gave confirmed sell signal. See below. Market breadth oscillators had been on sell signals. But they reached oversold status, and now both have rolled over to buy signals, after two days of positive breadth. Volatility indices only[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Futures | Feb 27, 2015, 1:10 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.27.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.27.15

    (Editors Note:  For those attending Traders Expo New York at the Marriott Marquis this weekend, please stop by and say hello to Larry McMillan and his group.  Russell Rhoads from the Options Institute at CBOE will be at Traders Expo as well). The stock market continues to move higher, albeit at a very slow pace. That makes the $SPX chart bullish, of course, and it will remain bullish as long as $SPX holds above support.  The highest support level is the 2090-2100 range that $SPX traded[...]

  • Market News | Feb 20, 2015, 9:40 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.20.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.20.15

    $SPX has finally broken out to new all-time highs and has maintained that status by closing above the old highs for four consecutive days. That's the bullish news.  The less-than-bullish news is that the breakout is not being confirmed with any resound by some of the other indicators.  However, as long as $SPX remains above the 2065 support level, the bulls are in charge. Equity-only put-call ratios are in agreement with $SPX.  They are on buy signals, and the ratios are moving lower[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Feb 13, 2015, 1:45 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.13.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.13.15

    The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has finally broken out of the 1990-2065 trading range that had contained it for nearly two months. The breakout was not easily achieved, nor is it uniformly confirmed by all of the other indicators, but it is in place. As for support, there should be ample support at 2065 and at several levels below that, all the way to the bottom of the trading range, at 1990. Equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to buy signals a week ago Tuesday. You can see from the[...]

  • Weekly Market Commentary 2.6.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 2.6.15

    The stock market has had a strong week. Even so, $SPX remains within the general confines of the 1990-2065 trading range, on a closing basis. We still await a breakout from that range in order to establish an intermediate-term trend. In something of a surprise, both equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to buy signals after Tuesday's trading this week. The computer programs that we use to monitor these charts were right on top of this new signal. Market breadth has been jumping back[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Jan 30, 2015, 2:30 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.30.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.30.15

    Market volatility has remained high, and we can expect these high levels of volatility to persist. Even with this volatility, the chart of $SPX is still in a trading range. Once again -- for the fifth time this month -- 1990 has proven to be support. To say that 1990 is an important level would be an understatement.   If it gives way, a much more bearish situation would develop. On the upside, there is resistance at 2065. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.  They rolled[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Jan 23, 2015, 3:30 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.23.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.23.15

    The market continues to be volatile, with $SPX bouncing from support at 1990 to resistance at 2065 swiftly in the past four days.  Outside of that range, there is further support at 1975 (the October lows) and resistance at 2090 (the all-time highs).  As a result, the $SPX chart remains neutral at this time. Equity-only put-call ratios turned bullish in early January, and the standard ratio remains on a buy signal (barely) at this time, even though the 21-day moving average has curled[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Jan 16, 2015, 11:15 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.16.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.16.15

    The stock market has experienced huge moves so far this year, far greater than have been seen since the fall of 2011.  There has been a lot of back forth action, but the bears seem to be gradually getting the upper hand.   Yet, the indicators are mixed and it could be that the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) is just in a wide and volatile trading range. $SPX has established support near 1990.  Below there, the next support level is at roughly 1975, and if that support is[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Jan 9, 2015, 1:00 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.9.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.9.15

    The market has been on a rather wild ride for over a month now.  With the action of the last two days, our indicators have swung back to a bullish status, for the most part. The fact that $SPX has now risen back above its 20-day moving average and has closed above 2060 is positive.  A second day's close above 2060 would be confirmation of the recovery in the $SPX chart. Equity-only put-call have rolled over to buy signals. Market breadth was not very supportive of the December rally, and[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Jan 2, 2015, 10:00 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.2.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.2.15

    Stocks stumbled into year end, with a couple of down days, the second of which was downright nasty.  But was this just illiquid, year-end manipulation (as the bulls suggest) or is it something more serious?  It's a little early to tell at this point, but if things don't improve quickly, then the bears have a chance to engineer a correction. The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) fell below support at year-end.  That support had been at the 2075-2080 level.  It is still above[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Dec 22, 2014, 4:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 12.19.14

    Weekly Market Commentary 12.19.14

    In nearly 45 years of trading, I don't think I've ever seen a market as wild as the one has been this month. Let's review the entire technical picture. First of all, the chart of $SPX has not yet returned to a bullish state. $SPX would have to trade at new highs (above 2080) in order to turn the chart bullish again. Meanwhile, the equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They have been racing up their charts, but they still aren't even halfway up the charts. Thus, they are not in an oversold[...]

  • Weekly Market Commentary 12.12.14

    Weekly Market Commentary 12.12.14

    Various indicators have been turning bearish since mid-November.  But until this week, $SPX itself had not broken down, and since price is "king," that was quite important.  However, now $SPX has broken down, as it has fallen below support at 2050.  This completes a bearish pattern, and a full-fledged correction is underway. This could be sharp and short-lived, and since it is taking place late in the calendar year (when seasonal bullishness occurs), that is probably the[...]