Futures Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Sep 27, 2015, 7:01 AM

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 9/21 - 9/25

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 9/21 - 9/25

    For the previous couple of weeks small cap stocks were the place to be.  That fad came to an abrupt end last week as the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped almost 3.5%.  Over the same period of time the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) was lower by 1.57%.  In addition to trailing RUI for the week, RUT is now 6.8% lower for 2015 while the RUI is down 5.92%. For a while it appeared the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) was going to return to ‘normal’ levels when compared[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Sep 26, 2015, 2:05 PM

    The Week in VIX - 9/21 - 9/25

    The Week in VIX - 9/21 - 9/25

    The S&P 500 lost just over 1% and VIX rose 6% and the standard near dated futures were higher as well, but lagged a bit.  This resulted in the curve a bit more backward than it was a week ago. On the short dated futures front the contract expiring this coming Wednesday finished the week at a small discount to VIX while a week ago the contract that settled this past Wednesday was at a slight premium to VIX.  I’m still getting familiar with the short dated curve which move from[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Sep 26, 2015, 10:44 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/21 - 9/25

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/21 - 9/25

    With the drop in the S&P 500 last week the market continues to be on edge.  This is reflected in the uniform move higher in the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve from last week.  Note the ‘bump’ remains on the VXV data point which represents 3 month implied volatility.  This time frame is the first on the chart below to come after the last two Fed meetings in 2015.  It will be interesting to see if a change in the shape curve coincides with the approach[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Sep 19, 2015, 12:00 PM

    The Week in VIX - 9/14 - 9/18

    The Week in VIX - 9/14 - 9/18

    VIX was slightly lower despite the S&P 500 dropping a little last week.  I would not read anything into this slight market anomaly(both SPX and VIX dropping last week).  VIX actually showed the type of behavior we are accustomed to with equity implied volatility leading up to and after an earnings report.  Just think of the FOMC announcement as a kind of earnings announcement for the equity markets. The September contract settled Wednesday last week and now October is the front[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Sep 13, 2015, 9:59 AM

    The Week in VIX - 9/8 - 9/11

    The Week in VIX - 9/8 - 9/11

    VIX dropped last week, which it tends to do when the S&P 500 is up 2%, but the futures curve remains in a state of backwardation.  The continued backwardation honestly surprises me when the risk everyone is talking about comes after September contracts settle on the open Wednesday of this week.  It may just be that there is more to be worried about than the pending Fed announcement. The weekly VIX curve shifted lower as well.  Having five consecutive weekly VIX futures expirations[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Sep 12, 2015, 10:43 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/8 - 9/12

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/8 - 9/12

    The VXST – VIX  - VXV – VXMT curve shifted dramatically to the downside last week in response to the S&P 500 recovering about 2% of recent losses.  The highlight here for me is that VXST is still at a premium to VIX, although the difference is very slight.  All eyes are on the Fed this coming week.  I’m going to attribute this short term volatility premium to the market preparing for the known unknown of how the financial markets will react to the Fed statement. As[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Sep 5, 2015, 3:44 PM

    The Week in VIX - 8/31 - 9/4

    The Week in VIX - 8/31 - 9/4

    On the traditional VIX curve we saw a pretty dramatic shift of the upside across the board.  The exception was spot VIX, but we have to attribute the smaller move to the three day weekend effect that causes VIX to close a little lower than if we were approaching a 2 day weekend.  A couple of things catch my eye on the term structure chart below. First, the price difference between September and October has me scratching my head.  On Friday we kept hearing how the employment number[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Trade Ideas | Sep 5, 2015, 11:00 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/31 - 9/4

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/31 - 9/4

    The S&P 500 lost 3.4% last week which I guess is becoming commonplace these days.  Do note on the curve below that VXST closed a tad lower on a week over week basis.  We attribute this to the long weekend we are currently experiencing and I’ll address that a little more in a minute. Both VXST and VIX experience a little bit of a headwind going into long weekends.  This can be attributed to the calculations of both being based on calendar days and not trading days. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Sep 1, 2015, 4:04 PM

    May the Next Voice You Hear Be Your Own

    May the Next Voice You Hear Be Your Own

    Con·trar·i·an Noun A person who takes an opposing view. One who rejects the majority opinion as in economic matters. What an emotional business this is. The uneasy market sell-off continued today with option implied volatility climbing higher. Radio and TV experts have no problem pumping fear into the average investor’s head. Fright sells. RIP Wes Craven. New traders make the big mistake of watching and listening for every clue to help them place the perfect trade. Only to fill[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Aug 30, 2015, 11:41 AM

    The History of VIX Contango and Backwardation

    The History of VIX Contango and Backwardation

    This morning (Sunday) I got a request from Eric Thompson at Thompson Capital Management to look into streaks of backwardation in VIX.  There are different ways to measure backwardation.  You will hear pundits say we are in backwardation whenever VIX closes higher than the front month future.  Most market participants like to look to the relationship between the first and second month future since that relationship has a direct impact on the volatility oriented exchange traded products[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Aug 30, 2015, 9:40 AM

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 8/24 - 8/28

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 8/24 - 8/28

    Once a month I leave CBOE for a couple of days and turn into a student attending a residency at Oklahoma State.  I do my very best to leave the markets behind and focus on my studies.  I did a pretty good job of tuning out what was going on toward the end of the week.  This resulted in me being surprised that the Russell 1000 (RUI) gained almost 1% on a week over week basis with the Russell 2000 rising just over a half of a percent.  Both are lower on the year, with large[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Aug 29, 2015, 1:19 PM

    The Week in VIX - 8/24 - 8/28

    The Week in VIX - 8/24 - 8/28

    I’m depending on my aging mental capacity in lieu of spending the time to go through the last four years of VIX recap blogs for the following statement.  I have no recollection of a shift in the VIX term structure curve that replicates what shows up below.  VIX lost value on the week, while all the futures contracts moved higher.  Last Friday, spot VIX ran up quickly at the end of the day, but the futures remained at lower levels.  To get back to a more ‘normal’[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Aug 29, 2015, 7:55 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/24 - 8/28

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 8/24 - 8/28

    Under no circumstances does the week over week change in the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve tell the story of last week.  There’s something worth noting, but last week is not done any justice at all if a line showing Monday closing prices is not included, therefore it is. What strikes me as noteworthy about the week over week change in something that is very subtle on the term structure chart that appears above.  Note that VXV and VXMT actually rose last[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Aug 27, 2015, 9:51 AM

    Return of the Big VIX Trade

    Return of the Big VIX Trade

    Beginning back in the spring there was a very large 1 x 2 VIX Call spread that was rolled from month to month for several months.  With the excess volatility it appears the trade was exited earlier this week.  But that is apparently not the end of the story…. Yesterday there was a buyer of about 92,000 VIX Oct 15 Calls for 8.00 who sold about 184,000 VIX Oct 21 Calls at 4.80 which boils down to a credit of 1.60 per spread.  The payoff, if held to October expiration, appears below[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Aug 24, 2015, 8:20 PM

    VIX and Volatility Markets Today - 8/24/2015

    VIX and Volatility Markets Today - 8/24/2015

    First, a quick discussion of the VIX quotes from early today.  Just as the equity market opened the S&P 500 E-mini futures went limit down.  Market makers in the SPX pit at CBOE use the futures for hedging purposes so it was difficult for the traders in the pit to asses where the equity market was going and this created a pause is quoting.  Following the limit down situation there was spotty quoting in SPX and SPXW options so VIX values were not being disseminated.  The VIX[...]