Futures Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 25, 2015, 9:32 AM

    The Week in VIX - 5/18 - 5/22

    The Week in VIX - 5/18 - 5/22

    The VIX futures curve was lower last week with June losing more than the index or other futures as it was awarded the official title of “Front Month” with May VIX futures and options settling on the open Wednesday. Below I’ve changed things up a bit and the comparison is a year over year look at VIX and the VIX futures from Friday and a year ago on the Friday before Memorial Day. I was visiting the VIX pit with the attendees of the May version of The Option Institute’s Investing[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | May 24, 2015, 12:32 PM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/18 - 5/22

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/18 - 5/22

    The S&P 500 moved up a little last week and the volatility curve moved lower. On the shorter dated end of the volatility term structure chart, there was the three day weekend effect which helped push VXST and VIX a tad bit lower than would be expected in front of a normal two day weekend. Just for the heck of it, I took a look at the curve 52 weeks ago and added it to the diagram below. I expected the 2015 pre-Memorial Day weekend curve to be higher than the 2014 version, but was surprised at[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 19, 2015, 9:15 AM

    May VIX Settlement Reminder 5.19.15

    May VIX Settlement Reminder 5.19.15

    Settlement Reminder: Today, Tuesday, May 19th is the last trading day for May in the following: VIX, RVX, VXN, GVZ, OVX, VXEEM, VXEWZ, and VXTYN futures* and options. These contracts settle tomorrow, Wednesday morning, May 20th. PLEASE NOTE:  VIX options with an expiration date of May 20th, 2015 will cease trading at 3:15 p.m. CDT today, Tuesday, May 19, 2015. These expiring options will NOT trade during the ETH session on Wednesday, May 20, 2015. * This is in contrast to VIX futures with[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 18, 2015, 10:35 AM

    Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? - Weekly Market Outlook

    The S&P 500 Index ended last week at a new high, and the technical trend momentum picture is bullish.  But we've seen similar moves since February reverse several times, as the market has remained in a choppy and grinding narrowing range (with a mild upside bias). The $64,000 question: Do we trust the move we just got by taking it at face value, or is this another potential fakeout? We'll weigh the odds below, after taking a detailed look at some of last week's and this week's[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 17, 2015, 9:39 AM

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 5/11 - 5/14

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 5/11 - 5/14

    Small cap stocks narrowed the performance gap with large cap stocks last week. The Russell 2000 (RUT – 1243.95) rose 0.73% which places 2015’s price performance at up 3.26% while the Russell 1000 (RUI – 1184.73) gained 0.37%. Large cap stock performance is still slightly better than year to date small cap performance as the Russell 1000 is up 3.53% for 2015. The chart below adjusts both indexes to start the year at 100 for an easy visual comparison. The CBOE Russell[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 16, 2015, 4:19 PM

    The Week in VIX - 5/11 - 5/15

    The Week in VIX - 5/11 - 5/15

    There was a fairly parallel shift lower in spot VIX and VIX futures pricing as there wasn’t much to get excited about last week. The May VIX future dropped a little more than the spot index as expiration is just around the corner. Despite the almost 5% drop in the May contract, the premium relative to spot VIX is about 1.30. The premium of the May futures contract relative to spot VIX got me looking into various puts that expire Wednesday morning. I copied down the[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 16, 2015, 2:31 PM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/11 - 5/15

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/11 - 5/15

    There was a slight shift in the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT term structure last week. VXST and VIX were down, VXV was actually up slightly and VXMT dropped. Relative to history, VXV and VXMT are higher than you would expect with the S&P 500 making all-time highs. I’m convinced the market is braced for a difficult end to 2015. VXX and the other long oriented ETPs continue to grind lower as VIX stays at low levels and the futures maintain contango. SKEW stands out[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Trader Talk | Futures | May 12, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Market Tells Are More Useful Than Predictions or Comments

    Market Tells Are More Useful Than Predictions or Comments

    There was a slew of talk and predictions over the last few days that were to serve warning over equity market players, but what transpired as another up week with another very strong day on a Friday, the second consecutive big gain to end a week.  On Thursday we heard some 'off the cuff' comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, her thought that equity valuations were 'quite high', yet we know that condition is rather arbitrary.  Maybe she commented with a 'wink' to the markets.  The valuation[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 12, 2015, 9:22 AM

    More Color on the Big $VIX Trade

    More Color on the Big $VIX Trade

    I get to CBOE each morning about 7:15 and by 7:16 I was running around the floor trying to find out a little more about the VIX roll from yesterday. First, I’ll start at the beginning. It appears this all began back on April 10th when the trade that got rolled forward yesterday was opened. Back in April about 180,000 VIX Jun 17 Calls were purchased for 1.74 and about 360,000 VIX Jun 23 Calls were sold at 0.82. I keep using ‘about’ as a hedge clause because the actual trade[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 10, 2015, 12:00 PM

    The Week in VIX - 5/4 - 5/8

    The Week in VIX - 5/4 - 5/8

    VIX was slightly higher and the futures were mostly lower with a couple of exceptions last week. There was a bit of excitement in the middle of the week so I included an extra piece to the graph below and decided to show Wednesday’s highs for VIX and the futures market.  If I had not done that it would be pretty difficult to see there are two different lines showing VIX closing levels on the 1st and the 8th. We all know that Friday was the employment number with the stock market rallying[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 4, 2015, 11:15 AM

    Still In No Man's Land - Weekly Market Outlook 5.4.15

    Still In No Man's Land - Weekly Market Outlook 5.4.15

    Despite the strong bullish effort on Friday, stock's booked a loss for the past week. On the other hand, the market finished the week on a bullish foot, which broadly suggests we'll hit the ground running in an upward direction this week. (It doesn't hurt the bullish case that the longer-term trend is still technically intact.)  We'll weigh the odds below, after looking at last week's big economic news and previewing some of this week's economic data. Economic Data While we got a large number[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 2, 2015, 8:31 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/27 - 5/1

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/27 - 5/1

    If you took last week off from trading and are playing a little catch up this morning the week over week term structure chart appears to say you didn’t miss much. Aa I type this I think, who would take a break when GDP and FOMC announcements are on the schedule, but now I am getting back on track. Since the picture above misses a 20 point S&P 500 drop on Thursday followed by a 20 point gain on Friday I decided to create a graph showing the lows and highs for VXST, VIX, VXV,[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 1, 2015, 10:08 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold. Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | Apr 28, 2015, 2:41 PM

    Not The Perfect Bullish Breakout, But - Weekly Market Outlook

    Not The Perfect Bullish Breakout, But - Weekly Market Outlook

    The S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SPY) hit a new record high last week and the close of 2117.69 was the highest close we've ever seen from the index -- and the NASDAQ Composite's (COMP) (QQQ) close of 5092.08 was above the recent ceiling around 5044.  The overall technical analysis picture is bullish for stocks.   But, we can't ignore the fact that there have been multiple bullish runs over the past 6 months that looked on the verge of a clear upside breakout only to reverse[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Apr 28, 2015, 1:07 PM

    A Brief History of SPX and VIX Reactions to Advanced GDP

    A Brief History of SPX and VIX Reactions to Advanced GDP

    This morning while conducting a webcast about VIX and extended hours trading I was asked a good question.  This means I didn't know the answer. Tomorrow at 7:30 Chicago time the first iteration of the 2015 First Quarter GDP number will be reported. This will be the first time this number has been released since CBOE began offering extended hours trading for VIX and SPX index options. While talking about this I was asked, “What does VIX usually do in reaction to the Advanced GDP release?”[...]