Futures Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Feb 19, 2016, 4:15 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/19/16

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/19/16

    The rally has been powerful, but is it just another oversold affair? At this point, we can't really tell. The next resistance area is at 1940-1950, and that's a more crucial point. If $SPX can rise above that level, then it will have formed a "W" on its chart, and that would be quite bullish. On the other hand, if the 1950 resistance holds, or is quickly retraced, then a much more bearish scenario unfolds. Put-call ratios are very bullish. Since these are 21-day moving averages, they are[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Futures | Feb 19, 2016, 2:25 PM

    February 19, 2016 Weekly Report on CBOE VIX Index Suite

    February 19, 2016 Weekly Report on CBOE VIX Index Suite

    Ebb and Flow of Financial Signals Increase Foreign Exchange Volatility Volatility has migrated to the foreign exchange markets, especially the dollar/yen exchange rate. After a significant rally in early February, equity and interest rate volatility have subsided -- along with a slide in interest rates and despite oil-driven fluctuations in equity values. This shift is highlighted by rescaling indexes to 100 as of the start of 2016 (Figure 1). Possible factors driving the increase in foreign exchange[...]

  • VIX | Education | Futures | Feb 19, 2016, 1:35 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 2/19/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 2/19/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. VIX FIX: Volatility Makes Itself At Home Volatility seems to have settled in to stay. Blame it on the Fed, oil prices or global economic weaknesses, market turbulence seems to have hung its coat and made itself at home.  Volatility may not be rising, but it’s definitely staying put. “Volatility Update:[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 17, 2016, 3:43 PM

    VIX Front Month - Second Month Backwardation Streak Ends at 30 - So Now What???

    VIX Front Month - Second Month Backwardation Streak Ends at 30 - So Now What???

    For the first time in 2016 the front month VIX future closed at a discount to the second month.  This brings the recent streak of backwardation to an end at 30 days.  The table below shows the 10 longest first month versus second month backwardation streaks with the recent run coming in a solid fourth place. So now what?  Anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s, but I did some quick historical analysis.  The table below shows the 30, 90, 125, and 250[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Feb 16, 2016, 9:59 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Time Frames, Volume, Earnings

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Time Frames, Volume, Earnings

    As has been the case for a while, the market threw investors another curveball last week. That is, stocks initially acted as if they were finally going to tip over the edge of the cliff, but right before they reached the point of no return they bounced back just enough to offer a glimmer of hope. As encouraging as Friday's strong bounce was (and the pre-open strength on Tuesday is), the fact of the matter is, we're technically still closer to the aforementioned breakdown than we are to a rebound. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2016, 1:07 PM

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/8 - 2/12

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/8 - 2/12

    Three out of the four S&P 500 volatility oriented indexes were higher last week.  The shortest dated one, VXST, dropped a little.  We attribute this to the three day weekend impact that puts pressure on VXST, but also usually results in VXST rising the day after a holiday weekend.  For example on Friday VXST dropped 17% while VIX was down 9.74%.  I guess what I’m getting at here is that we should focus on the longer dated volatility indexes on the chart below to get[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2016, 7:30 AM

    Weekly Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/8 - 2/12

    Weekly Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/8 - 2/12

    I had to double check the numbers when I looked at the closing curve this week as I had forgotten this was a holiday shortened week.  For those new to VIX, the calculation is based on calendar days and there is usually a small weekend impact which is exacerbated by three day weekends.  The futures anticipate this and don’t follow VIX to the downside.  In addition to the long weekend, there is a lack of big economic numbers or new scheduled for Tuesday which also may have had[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Feb 12, 2016, 6:42 PM

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility

    The pain continues for the Russell 2000 (RUT) in 2016 on both and absolute and relative basis.  For the year RUT is down over 14% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) is only down about 9%.  The gap widened a bit this past week as RUI was down 1.00% and RUT lost 1.38%. Last year, when the market got into a real panic mode, VIX climbed to higher levels that the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX).  Despite the weakness in stocks this year RVX has maintained[...]

  • VIX | Education | Futures | Feb 12, 2016, 1:53 PM

    February 12, 2016 Weekly Report on CBOE VIX Index Suite

    February 12, 2016 Weekly Report on CBOE VIX Index Suite

    Volatility Sizzles As Markets Waver Despite sparse developments in global fundamentals, and relatively good vibes from U.S. economic indicators, fear overtook financial markets this week and energized VIX indicators. The CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index (ticker symbol: TYVIX), the gauge for interest rate volatility, reached a value of 8.53 near the open on Thursday and closed at 7.65 -- the TYVIX Index had not closed this high since January 2015. In addition, the intraday high[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Education | Futures | Feb 12, 2016, 12:30 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 2/12/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 2/12/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. Overnight VIX Values Coming in March Beginning next month, CBOE will begin disseminating values for the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX Index) during its overnight, extended trading hours session (2:00 to 8:15 am CT) for SPX and VIX options. Overnight dissemination of the VIX Index will enable market participants to view volatility[...]

  • Market News | Futures | Strategy | Feb 11, 2016, 12:35 PM

    New Study on Six Russell 2000 Options-Based Benchmarks Finds Higher Premiums and Risk-adjusted Returns for Certain Indexes

    New Study on Six Russell 2000 Options-Based Benchmarks Finds Higher Premiums and Risk-adjusted Returns for Certain Indexes

    A newly published study examines six benchmark indexes that invest in Russell 2000® Index (RUT) options and compares their performances with those of traditional benchmark stock and bond indexes. This is the first comprehensive study that examines the performance of multiple options-strategy benchmark indexes that incorporate Russell 2000 Index options. Written by Mark Shore, an adjunct professor at DePaul University's Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, and sponsored by CBOE, the study,[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Feb 8, 2016, 10:15 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Hanging By A Thread?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Hanging By A Thread?

    Although stocks were never significantly into profitable territory at any point last week, at the very least on Thursday it looked like we might stabilize with just a very minor loss.  The bears had other plans on Friday, however, sending the market 1.85% lower that day to the lowest close in nearly two weeks. And yet, it's worth noting that neither the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) nor the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) broke under their most critical floors; we're still not past the point of no return[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 7, 2016, 12:15 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/1 - 2/5

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/1 - 2/5

    Friday provided our first glimpse into how the economy was faring in January and the stock market apparently didn’t like what it saw.  VIX finished the day up 7% which was just under half the over 15% rise we got last week.  The February future managed an 11% gain to finish higher than spot VIX.  However, backwardation is still in place with the February contract higher than the March contract.  More on this after the chart and table below. I’ve been obsessively[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Futures | Feb 5, 2016, 1:52 PM

    VIX Measures of Volatility Boosted by Muddled Economic Outlook

    VIX Measures of Volatility Boosted by Muddled Economic Outlook

    Figure 1. TYVIX, VIX and Foreign Exchange Volatility Indicators VIX volatility indicators for Treasury, equity and foreign exchange markets edged up this week as central bankers and investors appeared equally bemused by the crosscurrents in global economic news. Adding to ongoing concerns about China, low commodity prices, lack of inflation and lackluster growth, yields on sovereign bonds in Europe and Japan turned negative. Negative yields are sometimes viewed as a possible precursor to recession.[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jan 31, 2016, 4:48 AM

    Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 1/25 - 1/29

    Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 1/25 - 1/29

    The VIX term structure is approaching contango which many VIX watchers will consider a green light for the equity markets, but the February contract stubbornly remains elevated relative to the March contract.  Although on Friday this premium was down to 0.30.  My feeling is February may stay up a bit until we get the employment number behind us this coming Friday.  At that point I guess VIX will be just like the Fed (data dependent). The shorter term curve flattened out[...]