Market News Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 9, 2017, 10:32 AM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 4/3/2017 - 4/7/2017

    An emerging theme in 2017 is that when stocks come under pressure the Russell 2000 (RUT) seems to take it on the chin a bit more than the Russell 1000 (RUI).  Last week the large cap focused RUI was lower by 0.33% while RUT lost just over 1.5%.  This widens the lead that RUI has on RUT to about 4.5% for 2017.  With small caps leading stocks lower the relative level of small cap volatility remains high compared to large cap volatility.  The best way to measure this is the CBOE[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 9, 2017, 10:29 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/3/2017 - 4/7/2017

    When there is not a whole lot going on to impact the financial markets we can get fixated on different topics.  Maybe that is what is going on with me and the French Election process.  The steep difference between VXST and VIX on the chart below may reflect the time frame being measured by VXST being just short of the pending rise in implied volatility that is expected in front of round one of the election in a couple of weeks.  It will be interesting to see if we get a relative rise[...]

  • Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 3/27 - 3/31

    The Friday to Friday change in the VIX term structure was as orderly as I’ve seen it in some time.  VIX has had a lower average daily close during a quarter only once, the fourth quarter of 2006.  However, the low to high range for VIX has never been tighter than what we experienced in the first quarter of 2017 with the range of 2.54.  On average the range of closing VIX prices is about 10.60 so the VIX market may be a bit wound up to the point where a big move to the upside[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 2, 2017, 10:42 AM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/27 - 3/30

    The first quarter of the 2017 performance race between the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) came to close with large caps up 5.51% and the small cap focused RUT up 2.12%.  The consensus feeling is that RUT got a little too far ahead of RUI from election day through the end of 2016 and RUI was due for a bit of catching up.  The small cap versus large cap risk index is a good way to explain the chart below.  Small cap expected volatility is best represented by the CBOE Russell[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 26, 2017, 9:31 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 3/20 - 3/24

    VIX reached 2017 highs last week as we got our first experience with downside volatility in 2017.  VIX closing at 13.12 widens the low to high range for the first quarter to 2.54.  Barring a close of 13.26 on the upside or 10.44 on the downside next week this will go down as the narrowest VIX range on record.  We continue to look to our friends in Europe for volatility guidance.  After the Dutch election results VSTOXX had the biggest one day drop on record.  Equity market[...]

  • Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 3/13 - 3/17

    We got a pretty orderly shift down in the VIX curve last week as the market easily digested a rate hike by the FOMC.  Also, the March premium to spot VIX at about 0.50 is pretty narrow, however the April premium remains a bit wide based on pending events in Europe.  We have been paying attention to the VSTOXX term structure due to market concerns about the pending French election.  It appears the Dutch results pushed spot VSTOXX lower, in fact the reaction was the biggest one day[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Mar 6, 2017, 3:37 PM

    Tales from the Cross VIX Highway

    While traders of nothing but the Essenpee would find themselves sitting on a gain of 1.5% to nearly 2% from February 14th through today (or through Friday, March 3rd's closing price, thus the difference between quotes), traders like me who favor TVIX or UVXY would be sitting right where they started, whether short or long. See chart below for a short history of UVXY over the last nearly-three-weeks. My account performance shows a gain of several percent. How did I do that, when trading nothing[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 5, 2017, 8:08 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/27/2017 - 3/3/2017

    Textbook and parallel are two terms that come to mind to described the shift in the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve below.  Also, steep comes to mind as the longer dated indexes are pretty elevated when compared to VIX and VXST. The long funds below benefited from volatility increasing a bit on Tuesday last week, with VIX even putting in a 2017 high, before resuming their downward trajectory.  Note TYVIX giving up 10% which puts the volatility of 10-Year Treasury Note options[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Feb 25, 2017, 5:22 PM

    Update on The Warren Buffett Put Trades

    A few years ago, I was asked to co-author the study guide that accompanies the 3rd version of The Warren Buffett Way.  While doing research for this project I came across a discussion of a handful of index put options that Berkshire Hathaway had sold between 2004 and 2008.  Every year when the Berkshire Hathaway annual report comes out, I dig in to see how these trades are doing.  Here’s the update as of the end of 2016. Back in 2008, as the financial world was falling apart,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Feb 25, 2017, 2:14 PM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/21 - 2/24

    VIX was the only S&P 500 related volatility index that lost value last week.  VXST rose, probably getting a boost from coming off a long weekend.  The longer dated volatility indexes mirrored the action in longer dated VIX futures by moving to the upside.  April seems to be the next month of concern among volatility players with the pending election in France.  Other pockets of volatility are showing up in the table below.  SKEW finished the week near recent highs and[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 25, 2017, 10:46 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 2/21 - 2/24

    To say that volatility was flat last week is misstating the facts.  Sure, VIX was lower, but wow, look at the rest of the curve.   All contracts were higher with April and May futures leading the way at up over 6%.  For this we will blame France, which I will explain after the VIX Table / Term Structure below. VSTOXX is basically VIX for the European markets.  Specifically, it is an index that calculates a consistent measure of implied volatility as indicated by options[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Feb 19, 2017, 9:29 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 2/13 - 2/17

    We’ve experienced several twists in the volatility markets this year where the futures don’t move in sync or in line with spot VIX.  This occurred again last week as VIX rose almost 6% while the futures markets moved lower.  Part of this may be attributed to February going off the board, at least with respect to March, but the farther date futures had been a bit elevated this year, but with the lack of any sort of volatility event appear to have started to weigh on the farther[...]

  • Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/13 - 2/17

    The Russell 1000 (RUI) gained about 1.5% last week and is now up over 5% for the year while the Russell 2000 (RUT) was up 0.8% and is trailing RUI up a tad more than 3% for 2017. The relative implied volatility of Russell 2000 options dropped to a historically more normal level last week after spending most of this year at the top end of the historical range. On Wednesday RUT managed to close over 1400 which bought out at least one trader with a short term bearish outlook.  With about 30[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Feb 15, 2017, 7:40 PM

    Block Trade Analysis - Large RUT Bear Call Spread

    As the Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to move into uncharted territory at least one trader believes 1500 is not achievable.  At least not through standard March (3/17) expiration.  Early today when RUT was around 1393 (much lower than today’s close) a pretty big trade came into the RUT post.  Specifically, they was a seller of 37,601 RUT Mar 1490 Calls at 1.42 who then purchased 37,601 RUT Mar 1510 Calls for 0.95.  The result is a net credit of 0.47 and a payoff at RUT AM[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2017, 5:18 PM

    VIX and Three Day Weekends

    Another three-day weekend is sneaking up on us.  The result for those of us that have an unhealthy obsession with VIX is to talk about how a three-day weekend provides a headwind for VIX performance.  It has been awhile since I looked at the impact of holiday weekends so I downloaded data and got to work.  The reason we believe in the three-day weekend effect stems from how VIX is calculated.  VIX is a calendar day measure, so when we are approaching a day where the markets[...]