Market News Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Jan 19, 2016, 11:30 AM

    Market Outlook - Are Stocks Ready To Pivot?

    Market Outlook - Are Stocks Ready To Pivot?

    Despite a couple of valiant efforts from the bulls, there was just nothing that could stop the raging bear last week. By the time the closing bell rang on Friday, the market was off by 2.2% for the week.... most of which came during Friday's selloff. Was that enough to finally drive the market to a meaningful bottom and let stocks start to recover for a while? Most indices are still on the fence, but yes, there are some clues suggesting stocks are ready to pivot. The question is, can we trust those[...]

  • Market News | Jan 19, 2016, 8:00 AM

    CBOE Risk Management Conference Schedule Now Available

    CBOE Risk Management Conference Schedule Now Available

    It was 2 degrees as I walked to the train this morning in suburban Chicago.  I noticed that at the same time it was pushing 50 in Bonita Springs, FL where in just a few weeks the US version of CBOE’s Risk Management Conference will be held from February 29th to March 2nd. I know I’m a geek about this stuff, but I’m more excited about the speakers than the weather.  The schedule is nearly final with a couple of speaking slots left to be filled, but it was posted recently[...]

  • Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility 1/11 - 1/15

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility 1/11 - 1/15

    The Chicago Bears are doing the same thing the rest of us did this weekend, watching the playoffs from home.  However, the stock market bears have been dominate in 2016.  Russell 2000 (RUT) history goes back to 1987 so there is not a lot to work with, but the first ten days of 2016 are the worst first ten days on record for RUT.  The table below shows the first ten days for every year when RUT started off in the red followed by what the small cap oriented index did for the balance[...]

  • Caution on Using VIX vs. Oil as a Stock Market Signal

    Caution on Using VIX vs. Oil as a Stock Market Signal

    I awoke this morning to an email from the matriarch of CBOE-TV Holly Goodhart.  She was preparing for her day with CNBC on in the background and something caught her eye.  The following comes directly from her email – I have CNBC on this morning, and they just spent a segment discussing this headline: "Markets bottom when VIX is greater than oil." This didn’t sound right to me for a few reasons, primarily because I recall many years with the price of oil in the teens.[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Jan 17, 2016, 1:07 PM

    Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 1/11 - 1/15

    Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 1/11 - 1/15

    Two tomatoes are walking down the street, momma tomato and baby tomato.  Baby tomato can’t keep and momma tomato keeps getting angrier and angrier.  Finally she stops, turns around and stomps on baby tomato.  She then states, “Catch up”. That’s what the VIX futures did this past week, with the stock market playing the role of baby tomato and getting stomped on.  When the dust settled this week VIX was actually up by 0.01 with VIX futures narrowing the gap. [...]

  • Market News | Jan 17, 2016, 11:14 AM

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 1/11 - 1/15

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 1/11 - 1/15

    In an interesting twist VIX was the underperforming index across the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve rising only 0.01 last week.  It is unusual for VIX to be an outlier like this, but even more so when we experience a three day weekend which one would expect to put some pressure on VXST relative to the longer dated volatility indexes. VXX rose about 7 ½% last week despite the paltry 0.01 gain in VIX.  We all know that VXX is not VIX or even any sort of[...]

  • A Quick Look at VIX Backwardation Streaks

    A Quick Look at VIX Backwardation Streaks

    When VIX is relatively high the VIX term structure moves into what we commonly refer to as backwardation.  The way this may be defined varies among market participants, but most focus on the shorter end of the VIX curve.  That is what I’ve been doing lately as well.  It turns out, regardless of how you define VIX backwardation 2016 has experienced more instances of it than not for the first ten days of 2016.  The tables below rank the consecutive day streaks for VIX backwardation[...]

  • Market News | Education | Strategy | Jan 15, 2016, 2:51 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 1/15/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 1/15/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. CBOE 2016: Building on Strengths Earlier this week, CBOE held its annual press luncheons in Chicago and New York, telling the story of how the exchange continues to “collaborate, create and connect “to expand its business. In 2016, the exchange looks forward to introducing new products, reaching customers[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Futures | Jan 15, 2016, 1:34 PM

    Twists and Turns In VIX and TYVIX Indexes

    Twists and Turns In VIX and TYVIX Indexes

    The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index (TYVIX), benchmarks of volatility for the U.S. equity and Treasury markets, have had some interesting twists and turns this week after another decline in the Shanghai stock market pushed global equities lower and the price of crude oil dipped below $30 a barrel. The TYVIX Index has been heading up since December 24, 2015, but still shows no clear trend from a longer-run perspective. The VIX Index, on the[...]

  • Market News | Jan 14, 2016, 10:44 AM

    Citigroup (C) Bull Put Spread in Front of Earnings

    Citigroup (C) Bull Put Spread in Front of Earnings

    As earnings season is starting to ramp up and the equity market seems to have calmed down for the moment, I was digging around this morning looking at trades in some of the stocks that report today after the close or tomorrow before the open.  A 1000 lot bull put spread in Citigroup (C) options caught my eye. With C trading at 45.00 there was a seller of the C Jan 15th 45.50 Puts at 1.15 who bought the C Jan 15th 42.50 Puts for 0.20 taking in a credit of 0.95.  The payoff diagram appears[...]

  • Market News | Jan 12, 2016, 11:35 AM

    How Unhealthy is the Stock Market in 2016?

    How Unhealthy is the Stock Market in 2016?

    After finishing the first full week of trading in 2016, there was nothing to be happy about the stock market. This was the worst start ever in the history of the stock market, and it all points to some more bad behavior on the horizon. With earnings season around the corner, there is nary a stock that is in position to make a move to higher ground. What seems to be ailing the markets that would have this market down so much?  2016 is turning into the year of the black swans. Four of them hit[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jan 11, 2016, 6:19 PM

    Block Trade Analysis - Huge 1 x 2 Jan VIX Call Spread from Monday

    Block Trade Analysis - Huge 1 x 2 Jan VIX Call Spread from Monday

    Today, while I was teaching at the Options Institute, a roar came up from the VIX pit about an hour into the trading day.  Despite the tumultuous market activity that we have experienced to begin the year, the audible volume from the open outcry pits has been fairly tame.  What got the guys going today was a very large ratio spread using January VIX Calls that expire on the open next Wednesday. The specific trade sold well over 100,000 of the 22 Calls and purchased twice as many of the[...]

  • Market News | Education | Futures | Jan 11, 2016, 1:00 PM

    VIX Weekly Futures Prices Rose 42% in First Week of 2016

    VIX Weekly Futures Prices Rose 42% in First Week of 2016

    The first week of 2016 was a challenging one for many financial markets worldwide, as (1) It was the worst opening week of the year in history for both the S&P 500®(SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, (2) The Shenzhen Composite Index of Chinese stocks fell 14.2%, (3) Crude oil futures (Feb. WTI) fell 10.5%, and (4) The U.S. dollar posted its biggest weekly loss vs. the yen since August 2013. Were there investable instruments that had diversification potential with double-digit[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Jan 11, 2016, 9:30 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Is The Pullback Over?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Is The Pullback Over?

    From a momentum perspective, the bears were clearly in charge as of the end of last week. On the other hand, the sheer size and scope of the setback opens the door to a possible bounce...  a volatile mode the market has been in for over a year. Only time will really tell if this oddly bearish start to the new trading year was a fluke or the shape of things to come. It's best to prepare for both possibilities. We'll look at the charts and weigh the odds below.  But first, was quickly review[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Jan 10, 2016, 9:00 AM

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Index and Options - 1/4 - 1/8

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Index and Options - 1/4 - 1/8

    With only one week behind us it is tough to show year to date charts for the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Russell 2000 (RUT).  I’ll just note that the bad week was broad based with RUI losing 6.04% and RUT dropping a whopping 7.90%.  The Russell 2000 drop is particularly noteworthy since it out did the late August one week drop by over 2%.  Small cap stocks had a tough 2015 and the underperformance has extended into the first week of 2016. On the trading front I noticed a big IWM trade[...]