• Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Nov 1, 2015, 3:30 PM

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 10/26 - 10/30

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 10/26 - 10/30

    I’m still playing some catch up from school work and travel which caused me to take my eye off the ball with respect to the markets.  It happens and when it does I’m always surprised by something that occurred while my mind and body were elsewhere.   The big surprise for me this time around was the disconnection between small and large cap stocks that happened over the past couple of weeks. Over the last two weeks of October the Russell 2000 (RUT) was basically unchanged[...]

  • Market News | Oct 31, 2015, 12:35 PM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/26 - 10/30

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 10/26 - 10/30

    When I do these blogs I get the data, create the graphics and look at the markets.  I share these mundane facts about my ‘process’ to make a point about the diagram below.  Last week we got an FOMC meeting (although one without a press conference) and GDP number behind us without the stock market did not reacting negatively.  We are looking forward to the October employment report that comes out this Friday, but we did get two of the big three economic events behind us. [...]

  • Market News | Oct 30, 2015, 12:37 PM

    Weekly TYVIX Report: Markets’ Different Takes On FOMC’s Even-Handed Message

    Weekly TYVIX Report: Markets’ Different Takes On FOMC’s Even-Handed Message

    The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement released after its October 28 meeting seemed the usual “on the one hand … and on the other hand.” The first hand held job growth and the second hand held inflation, or rather the lack thereof. Yet investors in the Treasury market saw a hint that a federal fund rate hike could still occur at the FOMC’s December meeting. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 2.19, its highest value since September 21. This was sufficient to nudge[...]

  • Market News | Oct 30, 2015, 11:37 AM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - Sell Signals Have Been Hard to Come By

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary - Sell Signals Have Been Hard to Come By

    The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), has gained 220 points in a month (since the September 28th lows).  After such a strong advance in so short of a time, one would have to say that the market is overbought.  Even so, actual sell signals have been hard to come by. The $SPX chart itself remains bullish in that it is in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and the 20-day moving average is rising. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to decline[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Oct 29, 2015, 10:52 AM

    2015 CBOE RMC Asia Schedule

    2015 CBOE RMC Asia Schedule

    Everyone at CBOE is looking forward to the first Asian version of the popular Risk Management Conference to be held November 30 to December 1 in Hong Kong.  Just today the preliminary schedule was just posted at www.cboermcasia.com which also works for registering to attend. Topics to be covered at the conference include volatility oriented trading strategies, option based portfolio management approaches, how to handle risk management in different volatility environments, and volatility oriented[...]

  • Market News | Oct 27, 2015, 11:22 AM

    Central Bank Tendencies

    Central Bank Tendencies

    Forget about 'Do not fight the Fed'. It's more like don't fight any central bank on the planet!  The fear of central bank interventions have permeated our brains once again, and it is that fear that seems to be pushing most investors/traders back into 'risk on' mode.  This past week, China cut rates and lowered reserve requirements, the sixth such move this year.  China also removed the cap on bank lending, a further move to deregulate interest rate policy. The prior day had an ECB[...]

  • Market News | Oct 26, 2015, 11:05 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - The Trend Is Your Friend

    Weekly Market Outlook - The Trend Is Your Friend

    Despite the tepid start to the trading week last week, the bullish finished strong, taking all the major indices above some major technical resistance lines. Granted, Friday's bullish move was more than a little overheated, with the opening gaps leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback that may well serve to start a corrective move. But, it's interesting that the market was able to muster that much bullish interest on what was (frankly) less than truly bullish prompt. We'll talk about the risks[...]

  • Market News | Oct 23, 2015, 3:30 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Indicators Remain Bullish

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Indicators Remain Bullish

    Earlier this week, it appeared that the rally that began at the end of October was lagging. But then Thursday, the market blew through resistance at 2040 and reaffirmed the bullish case with authority. A violation of the 1990 would remove the "bullish" label from the $SPX chart. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as they continue to decline (Figures 2 and 3). Market breadth indicators have been flip-flopping a bit lately, but have righted themselves in the last two days,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Oct 23, 2015, 2:30 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/23/2015

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/23/2015

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. Making Waves Across the Pond Last week, CBOE announced it has taken a minority stake in CurveGlobal, a new interest rate trading venue, backed by the London Stock Exchange Group, CBOE and major dealer banks. CurveGlobal will aim to provide customers in that space with a compelling trading alternative that offers new and[...]

  • Market News | Oct 23, 2015, 12:58 PM

    TYVIX Weekly Report: What Treasury Volatility?

    TYVIX Weekly Report: What Treasury Volatility?

    It is ironic that as TYVIX was venturing in its bottom quintile – below 5 – U.S. regulators announced they are considering steps to control Treasury market volatility (announced Tuesday at a Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference). TYVIX is CBOE’s benchmark for Treasury volatility, and the reason it is decreasing is that strong demand from U.S. investors is supporting the price of Treasury notes despite China’s sell-off. On the equity side, a slight increase of the CBOE[...]

  • Market News | Oct 20, 2015, 4:45 PM

    New Cash-Settled Options on Russell 1000 Indexes – Large-cap, Growth and Value

    New Cash-Settled Options on Russell 1000 Indexes – Large-cap, Growth and Value

    (My colleague Rick Rosenthal contributed text to this blog; Rick focuses on CBOE options on FTSE-Russell indexes). On October 20 CBOE launched new cash-settled options on three indexes – Russell 1000® Index (RUI) – is preferred by many investment managers as a broad-based index that represents approximately 92% of the total U.S. equity market. Russell 1000® Growth Index (RLG) - measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies determined to have higher price-to-book[...]

  • Market News | Oct 19, 2015, 11:50 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Things are Pointed in a Bullish Direction

    Weekly Market Outlook - Things are Pointed in a Bullish Direction

    Despite the wobbly start last week, the bulls took control again on Thursday and Friday to push the week back into the black. The move has yet to clear all the major hurdles that could prove to be technical problems, but at least things are pointed in a bullish direction. On the flipside, stocks may have already walked back into a valuation headwind. We'll weight it all below after taking a close look at last week's and the coming week's economic news. Economic Data Last week was pretty[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Oct 18, 2015, 12:36 PM

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 10/12 - 10/16

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 10/12 - 10/16

    Large cap stocks gained and small cap stocks were lower last week with the Russell 1000 (RUI) moving up by 0.77% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped 0.26%.  For the year RUI is down 1.25% and RUT has given up 3.52%. The implied volatility differential finished the week with the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) at about a 20% premium to VIX which is pretty close to the average level for this year.  For the moment the risk perception for small cap stocks is at levels[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Oct 16, 2015, 2:30 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/16/2015

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 10/16/2015

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. Interest Rate Futures thrown a Curve Ball with CurveGlobal CBOE announced today that it has taken a minority stake in CurveGlobal, a new interest rate trading venue.  CurveGlobal is a joint venture between the London Stock Exchange Group, CBOE and major dealer banks.  CurveGlobal will aim to provide customers[...]

  • Market News | Oct 16, 2015, 2:29 PM

    TYVIX Weekly Review: Consensus for Slower Growth Dims Trading Volumes, Volatilities

    TYVIX Weekly Review: Consensus for Slower Growth Dims Trading Volumes, Volatilities

    As reported earlier this week in the Financial Times, the standard deviation for economic forecasts for the U.S., EK, EU and Japan all are near their lows, with survey firm Consensus Economics reporting very little dispersion of GDP year-ahead forecasts. More generally, there is a consensus that worldwide economic growth looks bleak, and that a Federal Fund target rate hike is improbable in the near future. Accordingly, investors are taking a pause. In particular, the volumes of trading in CBOE[...]