Morning Call Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • VIX | Morning Call | Aug 1, 2017, 7:39 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 8/1/2017

    Big Picture About 3/4‘s of the companies in the S&P 500 that have already reported second quarter earnings beat their estimates.  This sounds impressive, but according the Bank of America Merrill Lynch the stock price reactions have been muted (despite the S&P 500 pushing the 2500 level).  Yesterday the Chicago PMI was lower than expectations, but Pending Home Sales was higher than expectations.  Nothing can go wrong if housing sales are strong, right?  We get[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 31, 2017, 7:18 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 7/31/2017

    Big Picture There are over a hundred stocks with Weeklys reporting this week in what is probably the heaviest portion of the earnings calendar.  All eyes will be on AAPL’s report tomorrow after the close which as well as financials will probably give us some insight into product launches coming in the next few months.  The economic calendar is heavier this week than last week with Personal Income and ISM tomorrow, the ADP employment number Wednesday, Factory Orders and Services[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 28, 2017, 8:12 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 7/28/17

    Big Picture Earnings continue to be skewed to the positive side as far as stock price reactions go, although the stock market seems to taking a breather.  JP Morgan followed Goldman Sachs’ lead and said some nasty things about tech stocks which hit the Nasdaq particularly hard yesterday and took other sectors down with it.  VXN (think Nasdaq VIX) was up much more than the other broad-based equity volatility indexes.  Needless to say, traders will probably focus on large tech[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 27, 2017, 6:28 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 7/27/2017

    Big Picture The FOMC didn’t offer up any surprises yesterday afternoon and the stock market reacted with a giant yawn.  VIX finally put in a new all-time intraday low hitting 8.84 as the FOMC announcement was just about to hit the tape.  Before the day was done VIX had worked its way up to 9.60.  The odds of a rate hike in December still remains at about 50%, but I’m taking the no hike side of that bet.  It will take very little in the form of negative news for the[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 26, 2017, 6:58 AM

    CBOE Morning Call 7/26/2017

    Big Picture Today there will be lots of talk about the FOMC, but the chances of anything truly unexpected coming this afternoon are very low.  This week, I have heard about a dozen people state that when we get an FOMC announcement the stock market goes up.  I was wondering if part of yesterday’s strength could be attributed to that mindset.  Remember when everyone is like minded, it may be time to go the other way.  We are beginning to hear grumblings of who may be appointed[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 25, 2017, 6:57 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/25/2017

    Big Picture Today is the first day of a two-day FOMC meeting.  As a gentle reminder, there are S&P 500 (SPX) options expiring on the close tomorrow which are perfect for expressing an opinion about the potential market reaction (or lack thereof) to the FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon.  Also, the earnings calendar is so heavy for the next three days it should be on a weight loss reality show. Overnight / Pre-Market Japanese stocks were slightly lower overnight.  Both the EuroStoxx[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 24, 2017, 7:28 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/24/2017

    Big Picture VIX finished the week last week just above the all-time low.  There was a very large VIX spread trade using October options on Friday.  More about that trade appeared in the VIX Weekend Review - Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures 7/17/2017 - 7/21/2017 It is a huge week for earnings, over seventy companies with Weeklys available for trading report earnings.  More about that below.  Also, Wednesday we get the release of information that will follow a two day[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 21, 2017, 8:13 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/21/2017

    Big Picture Two big themes to watch going into next week.  We get the brunt of 2Q 2017 earnings reports next week which creates some trading opportunities (for the short-term people here) and also gives us some insight into what companies think about the second half of this year (for those of us in the long game).  Also, we do get an FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  The fixed income futures market is pricing in a 96.9% chance that rates remain unchanged and the odds of a December[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 20, 2017, 9:05 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/20/2017

    Big Picture 25 of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 report earnings today, next week we get the brunt of earnings seasons with about 25% of the stocks that have Weeklys reporting earnings.  The oil market continues to attract a lot of attention and oil futures topped $50 for the first time since early June.  USO skew appears below with risk appearing to be priced in equally on the upside and downside.    Overnight / Pre-Market The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 19, 2017, 7:37 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/19/2017

    Big Picture Earnings season continues with results being somewhat mixed so far.  The economic calendar is fairly light this week.  We do get the EIA Crude Oi stockpile change numbers at 9:30 Chicago time – expectations are for a drop of 3.214 million, last week’s number was down 7.564 million.  Tonight, the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decision (think FOMC in Japan) with expectations for the no change maintaining a short term policy interest rate of[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 18, 2017, 8:17 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/18/2017

    Big Picture Health care reform appears to be dead in the Senate, the market has yawned probably having discounted the outcome already or possibly just not caring.  For the most part the market is focused on earnings. Volatility Index Performance The suite of volatility indexes calculated by CBOE finished last week at very low levels.  Despite this they were mixed yesterday with VXST leading to the upside.   Overnight / Pre-Market Netflix (NFLX) hit a homer after the close and the[...]

  • Morning Call | Jul 17, 2017, 8:09 AM

    CBOE Morning Call - 7/17/2017

    Big Picture VIX has everyone’s attention after closing on Friday at 9.51 which is the lowest level since December 1993, but also the lowest non-holiday week close on record.  The S&P 500 finished Friday at an all time high and is now up over 10% for the year.  The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) vs. VIX ratio climbed last week as the Russell 2000 under performed the S&P 500 by about 50 bp.  This ratio is worth watching for an early indication that small cap[...]