For the second week in a row the S&P 500 Index related volatility indexes hardly budged. Three out of four were lower with the longest dated, VXMT, up slightly on the week.
We’ve ranted and raved in various forums about how VVIX has been holding up despite a lower VIX. It was kind of like the last holdout for higher equity market related volatility until this past week when it took a 12% dive. This puts VVIX closer to the lower end of the historical range. I guess we will now focus on SKEW which is the sole index that remains relatively high.
Since the equity market bottomed in February both VXX and UVXY have given back all the early 2016 gains and then some. As long as contango prevails in the VIX futures term structure and VIX remains low we will probably continue to see SVXY widen the 2016 lead on the long funds.
I’ve started looking beyond broad based equity market volatility in this space. This week the biggest moves to the upside came from the currency focused volatility indexes. If something is getting ready to upset the financial markets maybe it is macro in nature and the heightened risk is showing up in $BPVIX, $JYVIX, and $EUVIX.
Finally, on Friday the CBOE Options Institute held the first of a series of focus classes. We spent the day covering all things VIX and Volatility with a great group of students. I actually like these sorts of classes because I always seem to come away with new things to work on based on student questions or comments.
One student noted that he likes to buy SVXY on any pull back of about 20% and this prompted another student to ask if he’d ever considered selling out of the money puts on SVXY. We fired up LiveVol Pro and took a look at the skew of SVXY options. A condensed version of that chart appears below showing the skew for SVYX options expiring on September 16th.
SVXY finished the week at 73.44 and we kicked around different 60 strike SVXY puts. The skew chart above shows the IV for September 16th SVXY 60 Puts is around 80%. With volatility like that priced into options we looked at the bid side for all the 60 strike puts expiring in September. With Weeklys there are actually five alternatives to consider.
The premiums ranged from 0.35 for the September 2nd puts to 2.05 for the September 30th contracts. Of course this is the equivalent of being short volatility since a volatility spike can take 20% out of SVXY in just a day, but if a trader would be a willing buyer of SVXY on a dip to 60.00 the opportunity to get paid to do so exists since the IV is so high for out of the money puts on this ETF.