The chart below may be one of the final references to the French Election which came to an end this weekend. Note VXST, which reflects the IV of very short term SPX options was elevated going into the weekend. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to say that a quick drop in VXST may be in the cards come Monday morning.
SKEW dropping dramatically last week may be the last bastion of higher volatility dropping. This happened despite VIX dropping which makes the SKEW move even more significant. I was a bit surprised that TYVIX was higher, although off a very low base, since we got an FOMC meeting behind us last week.
SVXY is now a rounding error below up 65% for the year and UVXY is now down 70%. It’s only May 5th and these numbers are more like what would be expected as the year comes to an end, not with about seven months to go.
Two weeks ago, all volatility indexes quoted by CBOE were lower. Many, but not all, rebounded last week. I guess we need to keep an eye on China, Oil, and other emerging markets if the volatility index changes are to be believed.
Finally, over the weekend I posted a chart that resulted in me being called some ugly names and my intelligence being questioned. Thank goodness my children don’t have Twitter yet. The chart below is the chart in question and now I attempt to explain it in more than 140 characters.
I was asked by a reporter to double check what year was the last time VIX had moved below 10.00. It turned out to be early 2007 so I took a stab a overlaying 2007 VIX daily price action with the year to date 2017 action. Note that in the second half of 2007, as a prelude to the Great Financial Crisis, VIX made some dramatic moves to the upside. The point here is that this can happen, not that it will.
Traders do well selling volatility when VIX is low and often give up profits when we get a quick move to the upside in VIX. My goal is to make sure people trade smart and reminding a complacent market what can happen was my goal when posting that chart.