Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal delivered a speech on “Are We Still in a Bull Market” on September 13 at the 7th Annual Cboe European Risk Management Conference (RMC).
Mr. Gave’s presentation included 57 slides; below are highlights, with excerpts from some of the slides:
GRAPHIC #1 – CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL POLICY
GRAPHIC #2 – POSSIBLE SLOWDOWN IN U.S.
GRAPHIC #3 – TECH IN U.S. AND CHINA
GRAPHIC #4 – FEWER SEC-LISTED COMPANIES IN THE U.S.
GRAPHIC #5 – MORE SHARE BUYBACKS IN THE U.S.
GRAPHIC #6 – MORE CORPORATE DEBT IN U.S.
GRAPHIC #7 – CENTRAL BANK RESERVES SHRINKING
GRAPHIC #8 – CONCLUDING REMARKS – FALLING BACK ON CERTAINTIES
QUESTIONS FROM AUDIENCE
Audience Question #1 – What does China think about bitcoin?
Answer – Chinese policy-makers like capital controls.
Audience Question – Could you elaborate on the future of capital controls in China?
Answer – If growth is slowing, I do not anticipate great easing of capital controls in the near future; but in the long run, to gain more credibility, there probably will be more liberalization.
Audience Question – You mentioned the aging of populations in the U.S. and Europe, but what about China?
Answer – Yes, China also has an aging problem, and with the one-child policy, there can be challenges for team-building and there is more recent focus on team sports. As China ages, there is expected to be more social stability.
Audience Question – How can the Chinese authorities deal with challenge of growing corporate debt?
Answer – There is more self-funding by banks, with tremendous growth in the number of bank accounts, growing from around 200 million accounts to more than 800 million accounts. A big stimulus is less likely.
Louis-Vincent Gave is a Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, begun in 2002 as an independent macro research firm in Hong Kong. The starting premise for Gavekal was that China was set to become an important economic and financial force in the world, yet most foreign investors did not know where to begin when thinking through the global financial implications of China’s rise. In 2005, Louis launched Gavekal’s money management operation and launched the first Gavekal UCITS fund, the Gavekal Asian Opportunities UCITS fund, which he has co-managed since then with Alfred Ho. Gavekal today manages some US$1.6 billion in various funds and strategies on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients.