Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Trader Talk | Education | Apr 20, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Market Breadth Indicators: An Important Measure of Sentiment

    Market Breadth Indicators:  An Important Measure of Sentiment

    Market breadth is simply how many stocks are being bought vs being sold and how much volume is behind it.  Breadth is an ideal temperature gauge of the market's health at any point in time, and like most indicators is a current read of where price action is likely headed.  Basically, this is not where the money is flowing but what direction (in or out).  Coupled with other sentiment tools such as put/call ratio, volatility index, rydex ratio and polls we can get a very accurate idea[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Apr 20, 2015, 10:45 AM

    Trading Range Should Be Settled Soon - Weekly Market Outlook

    Trading Range Should Be Settled Soon - Weekly Market Outlook

    Once again a rally effort that managed to pull the market within reach of a breakout was quelled as the eleventh hour, putting stocks back in the middle of a recent trading range. This third failure - and potential triple top - is likely discouraging to bulls on the sidelines who were waiting for that one last convincing bullish hint before pouring back in.  What are the key market levels to watch here?  We'll dissect the market's current situation, after looking at last week's[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Apr 17, 2015, 9:51 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.17.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.17.15

    There was some positive action this week, but in the end it's still a trading range market.   $SPX moved to the high end of the range almost challenging the all-time highs, but it could not break out on the upside.  There has been some improvement in the status of the other indicators, but unless $SPX can break out to the upside, it will not really matter. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as their 21-day moving averages continue to drop nearly every day. Market breadth[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Apr 14, 2015, 10:00 AM

    Bullish Momentum Meeting High Valuations - Weekly Market Outlook

    Bullish Momentum Meeting High Valuations - Weekly Market Outlook

    The odds may have been a bit stacked against stocks heading into last week, but the market clearly overcame them.  All told, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained about 1.7% last week, crossing above some key moving average lines in the process, rekindling the bigger-picture rally. Can it last? There are certainly some hurdles ahead, not the least of which is the market's valuation, which is getting a bit frothy by some measures.  Higher highs are not out of the picture though, because[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Apr 10, 2015, 1:45 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.10.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 4.10.15

    The stock market has traded in an ever-narrowing range for over a month now.  The most recent range has been bounded by 2090 on the upside and 2050 on the downside.  But now $SPX is trying to break through 2090.  Even if that is accomplished, there is still considerable overhead resistance at 2110-2120 (the all-time highs).     Most of the other indicators have taken on a more positive slant in the last week or so.  As a prime example, the equity-only put-call[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Apr 6, 2015, 10:00 AM

    Key SPX & VIX Levels to Watch: Weekly Market Outlook

    Key SPX & VIX Levels to Watch: Weekly Market Outlook

    Despite the solid start to the trading week on Monday of last week, Tuesday's and Wednesday's dips cast a shadow of doubt on stocks.  Yes, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) ended the holiday-shortened week with a small gain. But, once again the bulls have a big hurdle right in front of them they'll need to clear first before we can seriously entertain bullish ideas. We'll analyze the current shape of things below, after painting the bigger picture with some broad economic data brushstrokes. Economic[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Mar 27, 2015, 2:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.15

    When $SPX broke down through the 2090 support level, that was a very negative sign, especially since stocks failed at the old highs.   There is now strong resistance at 2110-2120 (the February and March peaks), as well as at 2090 (again).  As for support, the initial support level will be 2040, the early March lows.  Below that, there is support at 1970-1990, which is the area of the December and January lows. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on sell signals and are[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Mar 24, 2015, 2:00 PM

    Sentiment Tools: Taking the Temperature of the Market With the VIX, Part 1

    Sentiment Tools:  Taking the Temperature of the Market With the VIX, Part 1

    Random movements in the stock market are very tough to explain but if we can understand the role of sentiment, these moves make sense.  Remember, stocks move along the spectrum of fear and greed, a chart being an excellent portrayal of these emotions.  We can point to several sentiment-related indicators to get a pulse of market players, this is especially useful in the short run.  In part 1 of a series, we'll take a look at some of these and how they impact decisions and market movement. A[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Mar 23, 2015, 2:10 PM

    The Fed Gives A Boost - Weekly Market Outlook

    The Fed Gives A Boost - Weekly Market Outlook

    Thanks to a little help from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the market broke out of a three-week-old bearish rut, and in the process may have rekindled a bigger uptrend.  In fact, technically speaking, the uptrend is back underway. We'll handicap the market below.  First, let's run down last week's and this week's economic news. Economic Data There's little doubt as to last week's economic focal point... the release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. It was an interesting[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Mar 20, 2015, 10:41 AM

    CBOE Bracketology Round 1 – VXST Index Rose 122.6% in One Week

    CBOE Bracketology Round 1 – VXST Index Rose 122.6% in One Week

    One of the most intriguing features of volatility indexes is that they can have sharp upside moves in times when “traditional” indexes fall in value. For example, during the week of Dec. 12, 2014, the S&P 500® (SPX) and MSCI EAFE® indexes both dropped 3.5%, while the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST) rose 122.6% and the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) rose 78.3%. Both of the brackets below show the biggest one-calendar-week upside moves (in % terms) for 8 tradable[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Futures | Mar 20, 2015, 9:00 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

    In figure 1, the support at 2040 and the resistance at the recent all-time highs of 2120 are marked as a trading range.  Until $SPX breaks out of that range, it really doesn't have a trend in place.  To support that conclusion, the indicators are somewhat mixed. Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals during this latest rally. Breadth hasn't been terrific during this rally, but it was strong enough to pull the "stocks only" oscillator into a mildly overbought[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Mar 17, 2015, 11:58 AM

    OVX Index Rises to 56.93, as Crude Oil Falls to 6-Year Lows

    OVX Index Rises to 56.93, as Crude Oil Falls to 6-Year Lows

    On Monday the CBOE Crude oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) rose 2.37 to close at 56.93, and  a New York Times article noted that – “Oil prices fell to six-year lows on Monday in the face of concerns that a glut in the United States was outpacing already-brimming storage facilities. … On Monday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, the main United States benchmark, fell about 2 percent to about $44 a barrel, a six-year low, while Brent crude, the international benchmark,[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Mar 16, 2015, 1:30 PM

    Between A Rock & A Hard Place - Weekly Market Outlook

    Between A Rock & A Hard Place - Weekly Market Outlook

    The third weekly loss in a row has brought the broad market down 2.4% from its recent peak.  In the grand scheme of things, it's not much... not even enough to call a full corrective move.  Even so, there are glimmers of hope that the selloff has run its full course (though bear in mind the short-term momentum is technically near bearish). The good and the bad are dissected below, right after a quick examination of last week's economic news and a preview of this week's economic[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Mar 13, 2015, 10:23 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.13.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 3.13.15

    The market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX), had been laboring at new highs, near 2120. Then, last Friday it broke down below support at 2090, which turned the chart bearish. Equity-only put ratios curled upwards late last week and gave confirmed sell signal. See below. Market breadth oscillators had been on sell signals. But they reached oversold status, and now both have rolled over to buy signals, after two days of positive breadth. Volatility indices only[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Trader Talk | Strategy | Mar 11, 2015, 11:28 AM

    Comparing SPX and MSCI Price Action

    Comparing SPX and MSCI Price Action

    Today CBOE set the date (pending regulatory approval) for the launch of trading of the MSCI EAFE (EAFE) and MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) index options. Recently I was at a conference where an individual trader told me all he trades is SPX.   He said he loves (his words not mine) the cash settlement feature of SPX options. He went on to say he’d been looking around for another index option market to trade and said he felt EAFE and EEM were going to give him that[...]