Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Feb 2, 2015, 1:30 PM

    Bearish Signs Continue - Weekly Market Outlook 2.2.15

    Bearish Signs Continue - Weekly Market Outlook 2.2.15

    While there's no denying last week was a rough one for the market, from one perspective, stocks still look like they've got a chance at recovering again. From another perspective though, the floor has already been broken, opening the door to a much more substantial dip. We'll take a look at how the market may already be past the point of no return in a moment. Let's first take a look at the economic numbers that ultimately spurred the sell-off last week. Economic Data Last week was relatively busy[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Jan 30, 2015, 2:30 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.30.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.30.15

    Market volatility has remained high, and we can expect these high levels of volatility to persist. Even with this volatility, the chart of $SPX is still in a trading range. Once again -- for the fifth time this month -- 1990 has proven to be support. To say that 1990 is an important level would be an understatement.   If it gives way, a much more bearish situation would develop. On the upside, there is resistance at 2065. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.  They rolled[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Jan 26, 2015, 10:00 AM

    The Fed, Earnings Season & GDP - Weekly Market Outlook 1.26.15

    The Fed, Earnings Season & GDP - Weekly Market Outlook 1.26.15

    Despite Friday's lull, the market took a pretty big bullish step last week, following through on the reversal hints it was dropping before the three-day weekend. It's still not over its biggest hurdles, but at least it's not knocking on the door of a rather serious breakdown. On the other hand, the hurdles ahead are very big, and backed by stress-inducing fundamentals. We'll take a technical and fundamental look below. Let's first paint some broad brush strokes with last week's economic numbers and[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Jan 23, 2015, 3:30 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.23.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.23.15

    The market continues to be volatile, with $SPX bouncing from support at 1990 to resistance at 2065 swiftly in the past four days.  Outside of that range, there is further support at 1975 (the October lows) and resistance at 2090 (the all-time highs).  As a result, the $SPX chart remains neutral at this time. Equity-only put-call ratios turned bullish in early January, and the standard ratio remains on a buy signal (barely) at this time, even though the 21-day moving average has curled[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Futures | Jan 21, 2015, 2:30 PM

    Lack of Liquidity Affects Most Markets

    Lack of Liquidity Affects Most Markets

    We have become accustomed to low volume, low volatility markets.  On certain days you can just feel the intensity and flow potential from the start.  Markets gap up and hit morning highs, rest and then run hard to finish the day -- and all the bulls rejoice.  A runaway gap down and follow through has everyone stumped and waiting for a snapback rally, which may not occur, bids disappear and prices run hard to finish the days on their lows.  This has been the mantra so far in 2015[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jan 20, 2015, 3:00 PM

    Volatility Remains A Concern - Weekly Market Outlook

    Volatility Remains A Concern - Weekly Market Outlook

    After five straight days of losses for the market, even Friday's big gain wasn't enough to leave the market higher for the week.  That makes the third consecutive week of lost ground for stocks, though there are some hints that the bulls are sensing there's something of a floor materializing near last week's lows (which were pretty well aligned with the previous week's lows). Don't misunderstand that observation - the bulls still have a ton of work to do if they want to convincingly put the[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Jan 16, 2015, 11:15 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.16.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.16.15

    The stock market has experienced huge moves so far this year, far greater than have been seen since the fall of 2011.  There has been a lot of back forth action, but the bears seem to be gradually getting the upper hand.   Yet, the indicators are mixed and it could be that the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) is just in a wide and volatile trading range. $SPX has established support near 1990.  Below there, the next support level is at roughly 1975, and if that support is[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jan 14, 2015, 2:00 PM

    New Study – Funds That Use Options (Part 3 on Related Benchmarks & SPX Options)

    New Study – Funds That Use Options (Part 3 on Related Benchmarks & SPX Options)

    A groundbreaking new study -- “Highlights of Performance Analysis of Options-Based Equity Mutual Funds, CEFs, and ETFs” authored by Keith Black and Edward Szado -- analyzed SEC-regulated investment companies that focus on use of exchange-listed options for portfolio management (options-based funds). This is my Part 3 Blog on the study. The first part of the study presented an analysis of Options-Based Funds over the past 15 years, while the second part focused on the performance of options-based[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jan 12, 2015, 12:40 PM

    Yields Continue To Fall Despite Looming Fed - Weekly Market Outlook

    Yields Continue To Fall Despite Looming Fed - Weekly Market Outlook

    Stocks were on pace to close last week out with a gain, thanks to Wednesdays and Thursday's big rebound.  But, solid news on the employment front sent stocks lower on Friday, and into the red for the week.  Still, the bulls were just strong enough to hold all the major indices above a key line in the sand, maintaining hope that stocks may find their way out of this lull and renew the bigger uptrend soon. We'll examine exactly how the bulls are hanging on to hope below, after a deeper inspection[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Jan 9, 2015, 1:00 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.9.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.9.15

    The market has been on a rather wild ride for over a month now.  With the action of the last two days, our indicators have swung back to a bullish status, for the most part. The fact that $SPX has now risen back above its 20-day moving average and has closed above 2060 is positive.  A second day's close above 2060 would be confirmation of the recovery in the $SPX chart. Equity-only put-call have rolled over to buy signals. Market breadth was not very supportive of the December rally, and[...]

  • Another January Swoon In Store? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Another January Swoon In Store? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Barring a big move on Monday, the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015 isn't going to be the beneficiary of a so-called Santa Claus rally.  The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) is now down 1.1% since the Christmas break, versus the average 1.8% gain we usually see during this period of the year. That, however, isn't the only market worry at this point.  More alarming is how much the last three months of 2014 looks like the last three months of 2013, which served as the basis for[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Jan 2, 2015, 10:00 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.2.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 1.2.15

    Stocks stumbled into year end, with a couple of down days, the second of which was downright nasty.  But was this just illiquid, year-end manipulation (as the bulls suggest) or is it something more serious?  It's a little early to tell at this point, but if things don't improve quickly, then the bears have a chance to engineer a correction. The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) fell below support at year-end.  That support had been at the 2075-2080 level.  It is still above[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Dec 30, 2014, 3:00 PM

    The CBOE Skew Index Reaches Levels That Say A Correction May Be Coming

    The CBOE Skew Index Reaches Levels That Say A Correction May Be Coming

    (Editors Note:  This sent to us from Bob Lang late last Friday night.  Enjoy) I wrote about the CBOE Skew Index here a couple of months ago and talked about how it had become a fantastic predictor of correction market moves in 2014. To review, the skew index is a compilation of bets placed on out of the money options, mostly puts. These bets are 'looking' for a big move south very quickly, perhaps the result of some sort of 'black swan' event. For the most part, these tail risk bets rarely[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 30, 2014, 10:20 AM

    Nasdaq Composite Picking Up Steam - Weekly Market Outlook

    Nasdaq Composite Picking Up Steam - Weekly Market Outlook

    Last week was a fairly typical Christmas holiday-split week, marked by weak volume before and after the day off, and a slight gain on par with the beginning of an average Santa Claus rally (not to mention the tepid bullishness in front of the Christmas break).  Though the trend was up more or less, take last week's price action with a grain of salt, as last week was anything but a normal one.  Let's first examine - and chart - last week's big economic news. Economic Data The holiday-abbreviated[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Dec 22, 2014, 4:15 PM

    Weekly Market Commentary 12.19.14

    Weekly Market Commentary 12.19.14

    In nearly 45 years of trading, I don't think I've ever seen a market as wild as the one has been this month. Let's review the entire technical picture. First of all, the chart of $SPX has not yet returned to a bullish state. $SPX would have to trade at new highs (above 2080) in order to turn the chart bullish again. Meanwhile, the equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They have been racing up their charts, but they still aren't even halfway up the charts. Thus, they are not in an oversold[...]