Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Nov 14, 2016, 12:45 PM

    BigTrends.com Post-Election Weekly Market Outlook

    BigTrends.com Post-Election Weekly Market Outlook

    To call last week as wild week would still be an understatement of epic proportions. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained 3.8% last week, which was big, but it was a victory made even more amazing by the fact that a Trump victory was supposed to be bad for the market (and for a few hours before Wednesday's open, it was very bad for stocks). A few hours after Donald Trump was confirmed as the next President though, the S&P 500 was not only up, but had cleared a key technical hurdle. The bulls don't[...]

  • Earnings Week of 11/14 - 11/18

    Earnings Week of 11/14 - 11/18

    Earnings moves to being all about retail - I personally am looking forward to company outlooks for the holiday shopping season.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in italics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  Finally, double check the earnings dates as not all were confirmed.  

  • About Last Night

    About Last Night

    So I spent the evening and early part of this morning watching different networks while watching the financial markets at the same time.  The chart below is a 5-minute chart showing the S&P 500 and VIX futures trading during the non-US hours trading session.  Then after 3 hours of sleep I taught my class at Loyola, spending half of that talking my students down from their disappointment at the election results.   There were a couple of things that stand out on the chart from[...]

  • BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Election Week

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Election Week

    Last week wasn't just rough. It was the worst week the market has logged since September, and it was close to being the worst week since January. Whatever the case, it was bad, with the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) losing 1.94% of its value over the course of five straight losing days. In fact, the index has now logged nine straight losing days. That's the longest losing streak since 1980. There's a potential upside to such a move. That is, after such a dry spell, the buyers may be chomping at the[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | Strategy | Oct 31, 2016, 10:03 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - October 31, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - October 31, 2016

    Stocks tried to get the market back in a bullish groove, staging a pretty solid advance on Monday of last week. It wasn't meant to be though. That rally effort petered out beginning on Tuesday, and then accelerated as the week wore on with the weight of a big Q2 rally still getting in the way. By the time Friday's closing bell rang most of the indices were within easy reach of a major support level. One stumble this week could finally pop this fragile (albeit short-term) bubble. And if there was[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Trade Ideas | Oct 25, 2016, 1:59 PM

    Probing the Buy Side of VOD

    Probing the Buy Side of VOD

    One pattern that I notice all the time when using Fibonacci ratios, is that many moves tend to terminate at extensions of prior swings.  I'm starting to get interested in VOD due to this pattern.  Not only are we seeing some key extensions on this chart which are illustrated with the "green lines", but we are also seeing a nice overlap with many other Fibonacci price relationships.  There are two zones that stand out in particular and the first one is being tested right here[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Oct 24, 2016, 1:14 PM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Lower Highs

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Lower Highs

    The bulls and the bears both took their shots at knocking the market off of the fence it's currently perched on. Neither team could get the job done. Stocks pretty much ended last week where they started it, but more than that they ended the week still trapped between a rock and a hard place. We'll look at the range bound stagnation after painting the bigger picture with the broad brush strokes of last week's and this week's economic news. Economic Data A pretty good dose of economic[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Oct 17, 2016, 9:43 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Damage Control

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Damage Control

    The bulls tried and tried, but it was a lost cause last week. Stocks never recovered from last Tuesday's stumble, and the bulls squandered their best chance to get back on a bullish track on Friday. All the major indices closed below key technical levels on Friday when the bullish effort that day petered out. Near-term the market still isn't completely past the point of no return, but it's close, and it's pointed in that direction.  However, while the tide may be pointed in a bearish direction,[...]

  • Keeping a technical eye on LULU

    Keeping a technical eye on LULU

    I have a setup I'm stalking in LULU via a weekly chart.  Now I say that I'm stalking this one because I do NOT see any official buy triggers yet that tells me it's worth placing a bet on this stock.  I am however anticipating a possible buy trigger if LULU tests one of the two key support zones I'm looking at on this weekly chart.  The first zone comes in at the 57.91-59.02 area.  The second zone comes in at 52.92-54.95.  These price cluster decisions include some 100% projections[...]

  • BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Mildly Bullish Undertow

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Mildly Bullish Undertow

    Stocks managed to log a gain last week, but it was a "just barely" situation. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) ended only 0.1% higher than it ended the prior week, and still closed below all of its key technical resistance levels. The bulls are going to have to do better than this to achieve escape velocity. Still, the undertow remains technically bullish, and a break above the ceilings here is within easy reach. We'll look at the hurdles and weigh the odds after a quick run-down of last[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Sep 26, 2016, 9:48 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - September 26, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - September 26, 2016

    While the market may have ended last week on a sour note, a little pre-weekend profit-taking can't entirely come as a surprise. Once traders learned on Wednesday the Federal Reserve wouldn't be imposing a rate-hike this month, they celebrated in the form of a 1.7% advance that lasted all the way through Thursday's close. Friday's 0.6% lull didn't even drag any of the major indices back below their most important technical levels. Still, stocks could just as easily kick-start a pullback here as they[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Sep 19, 2016, 9:35 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Fed Wednesday Looms

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Fed Wednesday Looms

    As much as the bulls tried last week, they could never get the market back above a key hurdle. The threat of a September rate hike just continued to circulate, and never gave the buyers a chance to get traction. Then again, the bears didn't make any progress either. They had several opportunities to deal a short-term death blow to the market, but could never get the job done. With the a key rate hike decision looming on Wednesday, odds are good traders aren't going to make any major push before then.[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Sep 12, 2016, 10:50 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Key Levels To Watch Here

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Key Levels To Watch Here

    Things were going fine last week... until Friday, when it all came completely unraveled.  Friday's 2.45% stumble in the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) was not only the biggest single-day loss since June when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, it carried the market to its lowest close since early-July. Some key support levels were snapped too. Bad news? Maybe, though ironically, the sheer size of Friday's meltdown has a shot at spurring a dead-cat bounce (not unlike the post-Brexit[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Sep 6, 2016, 9:43 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Two Month Range Continues

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Two Month Range Continues

    Despite a couple of scares, stocks ended last week intact, and even up just a bit thanks to Friday's gain. On the other hand, last week's action still left the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) along with the other indices overvalued and overbought. Whether or not that matters remains to be seen, though it's interesting that the bears had more than ample opportunity to push the market over the cliff -- but they just never did it. All the same, the first full week of the worst month of the year for stocks[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Aug 29, 2016, 11:26 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - August 29, 2016

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - August 29, 2016

    Unable to resist the weight of its 9% gain since its late-June low, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) finally started to buckle last week. The index only lost 0.68% for the five-day span, but that was the worst weekly performance since June, and could end up serving as the profit-taking excuse some traders have been waiting for. We'll look at the matter in more detail after a closer look at last week's and this week's economic numbers. They matter more than usual now, with the prospect of rising interest[...]