Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Aug 22, 2016, 1:28 PM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Tug Of War Continues

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Tug Of War Continues

    For the second week in a row, stocks were content to simply drift sideways.... the result of opposing factors simultaneously weighing on investors' mind. From one direction stocks are being buoyed by low interest rates that could linger for a while, while from the other direction the market's high valuations may be keeping a lid on things. The bulls are technically winning the war, but it's a marginal victory and the tide could turn quite easily. We'll weigh the odds in a moment. Let's[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Aug 8, 2016, 10:56 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Upside Breakout Amid VIX Lows

    Weekly Market Outlook - Upside Breakout Amid VIX Lows

    Against the odds, though with the bigger-picture tide, last Tuesday's alarming intraday pullback ended up being just the regrouping the bulls needed to finally stage a breakthrough rally.  On the heels of a better-than-expected jobs report for July, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) pushed up and off a key short-term moving average line to finally punch through a resistance line that had been nagging it since mid-July. Do we take the clue at face value and treat it as a breakout?  Or, was[...]

  • Maury Meets Mark

    Maury Meets Mark

    In the lively chat rooms of Hamzei Analytics, Maury tales are abound.  Saying Maury (a fictitious character) is frugal, is an understatement.  His motto is “What’s for free, is for me”.  At the very least, he hates wholesale prices and want to buy below cost, thus negotiates for the best bargain. He has set the standard for getting the most out of our options trades. We have come to appreciate the “Maury” trades in the HFT Options Trading Chatroom. Old[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Jul 25, 2016, 9:38 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Where We Stand As Fed Approaches & Earnings Seasons Is Underway

    Weekly Market Outlook - Where We Stand As Fed Approaches & Earnings Seasons Is Underway

    Despite starting last week out overbought and near all-time highs, the bulls decided by the end of the week they were still buying more.  Friday's close of 2175.03 was not only 0.6% higher than the prior week's close, it was a record high close for the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY). No, it's not a giant gain, but it's an impressive one all things considered - however there are plenty of opportunities for profit-taking right now. The $64,000 question: Can the current rally last?[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Jul 21, 2016, 2:36 PM

    The Clean-Plate Club

    The Clean-Plate Club

    Little did I know how soon I'd be back to report on the status of the last line of my most recent post - specifically my declared hope/dream to be rid of the SVXY that became like a pebble in my shoe. Yesterday (July 20th), when VIX scraped low in the elevens and SPX scaled a steep hill, I starting thinking about and fearing a future that might not include SVXY prices more attractive than those I was seeing point-blank.  Biting the bullet and sweating through the pain, I sold all shares of[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jul 18, 2016, 10:53 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - A Breakout Amid High Valuations

    Weekly Market Outlook - A Breakout Amid High Valuations

    The market (the S&P 500 anyway) rekindled the rally early last week, finally pushing through the resistance of its May 2015 peak at 2135 to move to a high of 2169. But, it didn't end the week with the same zeal it started it with. In fact, on Friday the index lost a little ground, and logged the first lower low in almost two weeks. A sign that the weight of the 8% gain over the past three weeks and the 16% gain since February has become too much? Possibly. Yet, that doesn't inherently mean[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Jul 11, 2016, 10:30 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Valuation Concerns as New All-Time Highs Approach

    Weekly Market Outlook - Valuation Concerns as New All-Time Highs Approach

    Following through on the surprising post-Brexit bounce from two weeks ago, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained 1.3% last week, closing at 2129.90. Though that wasn't the highest close ever for the index (nor did it reach a new intraday high), that was the highest weekly close ever for the S&P 500. And, we're within easy reach of the pinnacle of 2134.72 hit in May of last year. This is a do-or-die moment for the market. If it's to muster any more upside, it's going to have to plow into new-high[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Jul 5, 2016, 9:40 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Will The Post-Brexit Rally Continue?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Will The Post-Brexit Rally Continue?

    Despite the horrific start on Monday, the bulls were decidedly in charge over the course of the last four days of last week, setting up a weekly gain of 5.1% for the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY). The index is almost back to where it was before the Brexit vote shocked the world... for better or worse. To that end, it's interesting (though not entirely surprising) that the rally started to slow on Friday. Perhaps it was just a small wave of profit-taking in front of a long weekend. Or, perhaps the market[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Jun 27, 2016, 12:34 PM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Where Things Stand After Brexit

    Weekly Market Outlook - Where Things Stand After Brexit

    Through Thursday, not only was the market's action palatable, it was downright bullish. Investors were increasingly confident the Brexit wouldn't happen. Big mistake. When traders realized the "leave" crowd just edged out the "remain" crowd, it pulled the rug out from underneath the bullishness. When all was said and done, Friday's 3.6% plunge from the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) translated into a loss of 1.6% for the week. Now what? Good question. Perhaps the one-day drubbing[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Jun 20, 2016, 1:24 PM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Will Support Hold?

    Weekly Market Outlook - Will Support Hold?

    The bulls did everything they could to get the rally back on track last week after the early breakdown. But, it just wasn't meant to be. Once the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) fell under the 50-day moving average line on Wednesday, the index -- despite trying -- just couldn't climb back above it. When all was said and done, the market lost 1.18% of its value last week. Still, stocks have a few rabbits they could pull out of a hat and move higher rather than losing any more ground. And, even if they[...]

  • Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/13 - 6/17

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/13 - 6/17

    The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve moved from contango to an unusual shape this past week. Lots of things point to the markets being concerned about next week’s ‘should I stay or should I go’ vote in Britain. VXST represents short term SPX option volatility and the options that expire just after the vote are feeding that calculation.  I’m going to say results in VXST finishing the week at such an elevated level last week have a little to do with Brexit. With[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Jun 13, 2016, 11:08 AM

    Market Outlook - Market Looks Vulnerable Here

    Market Outlook - Market Looks Vulnerable Here

    The market was on pace to a decent gain last week.... until Friday. With that day's stumble, an intraweek gain of 1.0% turned into a 0.14% loss for the five-day span. Worse, the shape and location of last week's intraweek reversal hints that the tide may have finally turned bearish. Of course, in this market, such hints don't necessarily mean a lot. We'll dissect it all below as usual, after painting with some broad brush strokes of economic data. Economic Data As was noted a week ago, there[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | Jun 13, 2016, 9:14 AM

    Volatility Kicking Up Again - Seen This Movie Before

    Volatility Kicking Up Again - Seen This Movie Before

    Friday's risk off day was certainly one we have not seen in a few weeks.  Bulls have had the advantage of late, and any spike in volatility was sold down.  Take a look at the VIX chart and you'll see the last two spikes prior to Friday (to 16 and then 17) were pulled down sharply by the end of the day.  Yet, some fear seemed to seep in as we headed to the weekend.  Was it warranted? I'm not so sure, but as we've seen when volatility has spiked previously, it may be time to be[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Jun 10, 2016, 2:00 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 6/10/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 6/10/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX Index and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. CBOE Plans Its London Debut On Tuesday, CBOE announced that it will open its first international office in London next month, located in the Leadenhall building, aka “The Cheesegrater” building. This new initiative is one of many that allows CBOE to increase its global presence in the region and directly[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Jun 6, 2016, 12:01 PM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Mini-Trading Range Developing

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Mini-Trading Range Developing

    All things considered, the market held up quite well last week in spite of plenty of reason not to. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) ended the shortened trading week with a very slight gain, and also ended the week with the bulls testing the waters of higher highs after defining a near-term floor. And yet, its failure to actually make forward progress, even though it tried to do so, is concerning in itself. We'll take a closer look at the trading range that developed last week and what it will take[...]