Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 31, 2016, 10:20 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Key Remaining Hurdles

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Key Remaining Hurdles

    If anything, last week's economic and earnings news was on the weak side. That didn't stop the bulls from going on a rampage though. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) gained a solid 2.5% last week, carrying the index to mew multi-week highs. The BigTrends TrendScore ended the week with a score of 93.5 (out of 100). That's about as bullish as it gets. Can it last? That remains to be seen. The argument that there's just not much valuation room for more upside still makes sense, and we don't have a key buy[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Futures | May 31, 2016, 9:50 AM

    Markets Are Getting That Overbought Look Again

    Markets Are Getting That Overbought Look Again

    After the best performance in a couple of months, markets are back to an overbought look on several indicators, and that may send diverging messages.  No doubt the price action was very bullish, rising three of five days coming off a very good finish the prior week and breaking significant support as well.  It appears that support at 2040 on the SPX 500 was to be tested and happened when the markets matched it with an oversold reading on May 19 - great timing for a low to be planted. [...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Futures | Strategy | May 23, 2016, 10:45 AM

    Smart Volatility(TM): Dynamic Management of Volatility as an Asset Class

    Smart Volatility(TM): Dynamic Management of Volatility as an Asset Class

    Editor's note - David Skordal, Partner/Portfolio Manager, ABR Dynamic Funds, LLC, is the author of this blog The dips in August 2015 and January 2016 have served as reminders that the U.S. equity markets are now in the eighth year of a bull run, and equity crises happen on a regular basis. In the last 30 years, there was Black Monday, the Savings & Loan Crisis, the Russian Financial Crisis, the Tech Bubble Collapse, the Credit Crisis, the Flash Crash, and the Greek Crisis, just to name a few.[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | May 23, 2016, 9:49 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Neutral With Downside Risk

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Neutral With Downside Risk

    The bulls and bears ended up in a stalemate last week. Both sides of the table looked as if they were going to take control at different points, but when all was said and done, neither side had the conviction need to rock the market out of its rut. The S&P 500's (SPX) (SPY) close of 2052.32 was only 0.27% better than the week-earlier close, and still right in the middle of some major support and resistance. The BigTrends TrendScore (for stocks) is a slightly anemic 56.6 out of a possible[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | May 23, 2016, 9:10 AM

    A Market Under Distribution

    A Market Under Distribution

    The stock market is under distribution, this is a fact. Simply put, professional selling overwhelms the buying and prices head lower.   As the markets ebb and flow with the money coming in/out we are constantly reminded about the psychological effects of a bear market.  Yes, even after the huge rally off the February lows this could still be considered a bear market.  Some of the strongest rallies occur during bear markets, but we cannot dismiss the internal characteristics. [...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 16, 2016, 10:45 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - On The Verge Of A Bigger Pullback?

    Weekly Market Outlook - On The Verge Of A Bigger Pullback?

    The market may have started the previous week on a bullish foot, but it certainly didn't end the week on one. Not only did the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) log three straight losing days to end last week's trading, but it broke below a key support level it couldn't really afford to break. Stocks still aren't past the point of no return yet, but it's alarmingly close. We'll dissect the odds below after running down last week's and this week's major economic headlines. Economic Data Not a lot of economic[...]

  • Sometimes It's Best to Sit Back and Wait

    Sometimes It's Best to Sit Back and Wait

    As traders, we make our living each and every day trying to find the best trading opportunities.  For some, daily profits are the lifeblood of their existence not just feeding the ego but also paying the rent, putting food on the table and paying the bills.  This of course is the wrong approach for anyone who really chooses this career, as the timeframe chosen is critical as is the amount of capital in reserve.  Most of us realize the best possible position is to be well-capitalized,[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | May 10, 2016, 6:40 PM

    A Walk Through the Maze

    A Walk Through the Maze

    Let's detail a story of the last two weeks, in which I stumbled through a maze in search of the reward at the other end.  I've made some wrong turns and backtracked a few times, but I think I smell the cheese ever stronger, ever closer to me, right around the next corner. On April 28th I started with nothing but an idea, so I set it in motion as such:  With SVXY trading at $56.63 the moment I spied it, I sold ten SVXY 56 strike puts for the May 6th (six trading days away) expiration for[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | May 9, 2016, 12:21 PM

    Weekly Market Outlook - May Rally?

    Weekly Market Outlook - May Rally?

    The market may have finished last week on a bullish note, and started the week on a bullish note.  The middle of the week, however, was rough enough on stocks to leave the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) down 0.4% for the five-day span. On the other hand, when push came to shove at a critical line in the sand, the bulls were doing more pushing and shoving than the bears were.  Friday's gain - small as it may have been - happened in such a way and in such a place that there's a decent chance[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | May 9, 2016, 9:46 AM

    Bonds, Stocks and Gold - Oh My!

    Bonds, Stocks and Gold  - Oh My!

    With all due respect to Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz, the title of this article should tell us we have some worries and fear about investing in different asset classes. To be sure, there is some fear permeating, investors are wondering if they should pull the plug after prolonged bull markets in bonds and stocks, or just buy gold and other precious metals. Equities have enjoyed a bountiful time since the financial crisis, a bullish run of seven years literally uninterrupted (on a longer time frame). Bonds[...]

  • Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/2 - 5/6

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/2 - 5/6

    Small cap stocks get so close and then seem to fall back when reaching unchanged on the year or catching up with the performance of large cap stocks. This week the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped 1.44% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) lost 0.49%. This places RUT in the red by 1.86% for 2016 while RUI is still up 0.55%. With the underperformance of small cap stocks last week came a relative rise in the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX). The RVX / VIX premium began the[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | May 2, 2016, 10:21 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Is The Market Rolling Over?

    Weekly Market Outlook - Is The Market Rolling Over?

    Following through on the budding bearish effort from two weeks ago, the bears fended off a bullish bounce-back effort over the course of the first half of last week. It wasn't meant to be, however. Between Thursday's and Friday's high-volume selling, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) booked a 1.2% loss last week, and broke below some key support levels in the process. If history is any indication, this stumble may well be the beginning of a more serious pullback. We'll dissect the rollover effort[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | May 2, 2016, 9:28 AM

    2016 SPX 500 Chart Has Similar Pattern as 2008

    2016 SPX 500 Chart Has Similar Pattern as 2008

    We often look at charts to find recognizable and repeatable patterns, hoping to take notice of a previous move that may have a high probability of happening again.  In the universe of technical analysis, there are a plethora of technical patterns with setups for both bullish and bearish plays.  You can find a nice sampling of those below.  But the important takeaway from the analysis is to have an open mind without bias, identify a pattern and which way is most 'likely' and play it[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Apr 25, 2016, 10:29 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Weekly Chart Weakening

    Weekly Market Outlook - Weekly Chart Weakening

    Though the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) managed to eke out a gain last week, it also ended the week fighting for its life, dropping hints that the rally is running out of gas. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) logged a weekly loss -- the second in the past three weeks -- and also hinted that a rollover was already taking shape. Moving into the thick of earnings season could drive a course correction with little to no warning. Indeed, the course isn't even technically bearish yet. The bulls[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Apr 18, 2016, 11:52 AM

    Checking in on Overnight VIX Action

    Checking in on Overnight VIX Action

    Last Friday CBOE began disseminating spot VIX quotes during what we lovingly call the Extended Hours Session (ETH). The first quote for VIX on April 15th occurred at 2:15 am Chicago time. I was elsewhere Friday but I did check the data periodically and everything seemed to be running smoothly. I’m back at work today so I decided to take a look at how VIX did relative to the S&P 500 futures market from 2:15 am to 8:15 am Chicago time, looking at the price every 5 minutes. At 8:15 am the[...]