Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Apr 18, 2016, 9:49 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Valuation Concerns Creep In

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Valuation Concerns Creep In

    The market didn't end last week on a particularly bullish foot, but it doesn't matter  - it started the week on such a bullish foot the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) was still up 1.6% for the week, and still above a fairly important resistance line. The strength still doesn't outright guarantee stocks will keep moving higher. In fact, even if stocks were in a great technical position to keep edging higher, we're once again running into a valuation headwind. We'll dissect all of it below, right[...]

  • Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/11 - 4/15

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/11 - 4/15

    The S&P 500 was up by 1.62% last week and the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve reacted accordingly shifting lower in a fairly parallel fashion. The steepness has me concerned about the second half of this year, but for now things look just peachy. Note on the table below that despite (or maybe because of) the drop in VIX, VVIX rose a tad. It could be traders used to the weakness in VIX and related futures to get long volatility through VIX calls. It is a bit surprising[...]

  • Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 4/11 - 4/15

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 4/11 - 4/15

    One of my favorite books when I was a wee lad was “The Little Engine That Could”. When I see the Russell 2000 (RUT) coming very close to going from red to green on the year that story pops in my mind as I personify RUT saying, “I think I can” with the small cap benchmark approaching unchanged on the year. Last week RUT was up by 3% which places the index just 44 basis points in the red for 2016. Pretty impressive for an index that was down as much as 16% on the year.[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Apr 11, 2016, 9:45 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Hawkish Fed?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Hawkish Fed?

    It's too soon to assume the worst yet.  On the other hand, it's not too soon to prepare for the worst even as we hope for the best. Last week, stocks lost ground for the second time in three weeks.  More than that, the major indices are now putting a great deal of pressure on some critical support levels.  Worse still, we're seeing clear signs of waning bullish momentum.  That's not to say that bearish momentum has developed yet.  It is to say, however, this is how bearish[...]

  • Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/28 - 4/1

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/28 - 4/1

    Don’t fight the Fed. That’s a rule we must all live by and long volatility is a fight that isn’t winning these days. Note the drop in the week over week curves below and keep in mind that on March 24th there was a three day weekend in front of VXST which makes that drop even more dramatic. The curve is steep, which can be taken as longer term concerns prevail, but for the near term those looking for higher volatility have stopped fighting. The long funds on the table[...]

  • Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 3/28 - 4/1

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 3/28 - 4/1

    The Russell 2000 (RUT) had a great week rising 3.5% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) also did pretty well gaining about 1.9%. For the year RUI went from down to up and is now in the green by 1.23% while the Russell 2000 is still in the red by 1.60%. A repeat of last week and RUT will join RUI in positive territory for 2016. I put lots of charts together every weekend and there’s always one or two that catch my eye. This week’s is below as despite the outperformance[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Futures | Mar 28, 2016, 2:48 PM

    Weekly Market Outlook - At A Crucial Juncture

    Weekly Market Outlook - At A Crucial Juncture

    After five straight weeks of gains, the market finally buckled. It wasn't a big pullback last week - only 0.6% - but all big trends start out with that first small step. We at least have to acknowledge the possibility that last week's weakness may be the beginning of something bigger. And that possibility isn't just the result of one losing week. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) bumped into a major resistance line, and if the bears were/are going to make a stand anywhere, it's where the index peaked last[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Mar 21, 2016, 10:23 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Up 12% From Lows, Where To Now?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Up 12% From Lows, Where To Now?

    We just completed the fifth straight bullish week for the market.  The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) advanced 1.35% last week, clearing a couple of key resistance lines in the process. Yet, other resistance lines have yet to be hurdled, and could end up being problems that work against stocks now that the S&P 500 is up 12% from the February 11th low...  enough to give all those would-be profit-takers something to think about. We'll weigh the good and bad below, right after[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Mar 18, 2016, 1:06 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/18/16

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/18/16

    The completion of the powerful, bottoming "W" formation at the beginning of March was the launchpad for this leg of the rally. It has more room to run. Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals. The standard chart has seen a slight "wiggle" develop this week, but it does not dissuade the computer programs from continuing to say that these ratios are solidly on buy signals. Market breadth continues to be strong. Both oscillators are currently on buy signals,[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Mar 7, 2016, 9:37 AM

    BigTrend.com Weekly Market Outlook - How Long A Pause?

    BigTrend.com Weekly Market Outlook - How Long A Pause?

    Friday's finish was a lackluster one, possibly hinting that this leg of the rally has finally run out of gas and the bulls need a breather. Of course, after what was nearly a 10% runup from the mid-February low, a break for the bulls is neither surprising nor especially troubling just yet. The crux of the matter is when, where, and if any rest period for the rally comes to a close and the bullishness is rekindled. We'll look at the line in the sand in a moment, right after a quick run-down of last[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Strategy | Feb 29, 2016, 12:10 PM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Bullish, But Not Yet Firmly So

    Weekly Market Outlook - Bullish, But Not Yet Firmly So

    Last week wasn't a no-holds-barred kind of bullish week, but stocks did manage to follow-through on the prior week's rebound effort, breaking above some semi-important resistance levels.  There still a tough road to travel, however, if the bulls are going to get anything going for the long haul. We'll take our usual look at the market's upside and downside below, after dissecting some of this week's and last week's more important economic data. Economic Data Last week was pretty busy in terms[...]

  • Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/22 - 2/26

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/22 - 2/26

    Small caps played some catch up again last week with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining about 2.7% while the large cap oriented Russell 1000 (RUI) was up 1.75%.  There is still more work for RUT to do as it is underperforming RUI by about 3.6% in 2016. VIX made a new 2016 low last week while the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) did not.  This is surprising since small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks last week, but I’m learning that how RVX and VIX interrelate[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Strategy | Feb 26, 2016, 2:19 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/26/16

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/26/16

    The bulls scored a major victory this week, by engineering a breakout and close above 1950 on Thursday. That completes the "W" bottoming formation. So for now, the near-term outlook is bullish. Put-call ratios remain bullish. All three of the put-call ratios gave buy signals right at the February 11th bottom -- an excellent bit of timing, especially considering that these are 21-day moving averages. Even market breadth, which has notoriously been the "weak sister"[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Strategy | Feb 26, 2016, 1:30 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 2/26/2016

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 2/26/2016

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast, online and social media outlets. CBOE and Vest Financial Last month, CBOE made a majority equity investment in Vest Financial, an asset management firm that provides options-based services through packaged products and develops technology solutions for options-based investments. CBOE’s investment in Vest will allow for enhanced integration of CBOE’s[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Feb 19, 2016, 4:15 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/19/16

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary 2/19/16

    The rally has been powerful, but is it just another oversold affair? At this point, we can't really tell. The next resistance area is at 1940-1950, and that's a more crucial point. If $SPX can rise above that level, then it will have formed a "W" on its chart, and that would be quite bullish. On the other hand, if the 1950 resistance holds, or is quickly retraced, then a much more bearish scenario unfolds. Put-call ratios are very bullish. Since these are 21-day moving averages, they are[...]