Technical Analysis & Charts Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Futures | Jan 11, 2016, 9:30 AM

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Is The Pullback Over?

    BigTrends.com Weekly Market Outlook - Is The Pullback Over?

    From a momentum perspective, the bears were clearly in charge as of the end of last week. On the other hand, the sheer size and scope of the setback opens the door to a possible bounce...  a volatile mode the market has been in for over a year. Only time will really tell if this oddly bearish start to the new trading year was a fluke or the shape of things to come. It's best to prepare for both possibilities. We'll look at the charts and weigh the odds below.  But first, was quickly review[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Education | Jan 4, 2016, 2:11 PM

    Eight Charts to Recap 2015 – CNDR Index Rose 10.4%

    Eight Charts to Recap 2015 – CNDR Index Rose 10.4%

    End-of-the-year headlines noted “A Roller Coaster Year Ends with U.S. Markets Mostly Down” (New York Times) and “U.S. Stocks Post Worst Annual Losses Since 2008” (The Wall Street Journal). In this new year on Jan. 4, wsj.com noted “Weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and a falling currency triggered a 7% fall in mainland Chinese stocks that led authorities to halt trading there before the end of the session.” After reading these types of news stories, an inquisitive[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Strategy | Jan 4, 2016, 9:39 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - New Year, New Chart Problems

    Weekly Market Outlook - New Year, New Chart Problems

    When push came to shove as the end of the shortened trading week (and last week of the year), the bears were doing most of the shoving. Namely, thanks to Friday's last-minute selling, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) finished the week down 0.8%. That translates into a small loss of 0.7% for all of 2015. Will 2016 be any different? That remains to be seen, but we certainly didn't end 2015 on a high note. The good news is, there's little correlation between the market's tone at the end of one year[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 30, 2015, 10:47 AM

    CBOE Russell 2000 Strategy Benchmark Indexes Outperform Russell 2000® Index

    CBOE Russell 2000 Strategy Benchmark Indexes Outperform Russell 2000® Index

    Improving risk-adjusted returns and enhancing yields are common guidelines for using options-based strategies.  The CBOE recently added 5 new CBOE Russell 2000 strategy benchmark indexes to a line-up now totaling 26 based on a variety of underlying indexes. By design each CBOE strategy benchmark index offers a unique risk/reward characteristic providing investors with the flexibility to choose an appropriate strategy for different risk tolerances and market outlooks. As the year end approaches,[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 28, 2015, 10:14 AM

    Weekly Market Outlook - Santa Claus Rally & The Dollar

    Weekly Market Outlook - Santa Claus Rally & The Dollar

    Last but not least, November's durable goods orders were posted last week. They weren't stunning, with or without transportation orders factored in. On the other hand, bear in mind that the figures represent a comparison to October's totals - not November 2014's totals. It's also pretty clear from the chart below that we can't sweat tepid - or even negative - durable goods orders comparisons. It's clearly a volatile piece of data. Durable Goods Orders Chart It wasn't a full trading week, but the[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Dec 23, 2015, 2:01 PM

    SPX & The Golden Cross

    SPX & The Golden Cross

    For those that watch the market with a “technician’s eye” something unusual happened yesterday. It marked the first time since January 31, 2012 when the 50 day moving average on the SPX Index crossed over its 200 day moving average. Technical types call this “The Golden Cross”, which is almost unequivocally considered a bullish formation (especially in concert with increasing volume). To be fair, in order to set up a Golden Cross, it must be preceded by a “Death[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Education | Strategy | Dec 22, 2015, 2:35 PM

    2015 Year in Review with Kevin Davitt of the CBOE Options Institute

    2015 Year in Review with Kevin Davitt of the CBOE Options Institute

    Mark your calendars – this is not to be missed! A look back at the year that was in the markets with a little bit of everything. Fundamentals, technical/volatility analysis, options strategy, geopolitics, ideas for 2016 and more. Please join us Tuesday 12/29 at 3:30 PM CST time for this informative and free Webcast. Kevin is a Senior Instructor at the Options Institute. He traded equity and index options on the CBOE and PHLX floor for 8 years. He also has extensive experience[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 16, 2015, 10:15 AM

    Stock Market Action Last Week Was Disturbing

    Stock Market Action Last Week Was Disturbing

    I often say there are a million reasons to sell, but only one reason to buy.  Last week, it seemed that any reason to sell was a good one and was valid (and used).  Friday's ugly pasting was the culmination of a setup earlier in the week the told us a rejection of prices was going to happen.  As we see in the 30 min chart from this past week early highs were rejected on a few occasions.  Further, there were several 'fakeouts' during the week where it appeared there would be some[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Dec 15, 2015, 12:19 PM

    Looking at VIX With Respect to an Initial Rate Hike

    Looking at VIX With Respect to an Initial Rate Hike

    On June 30, 2004 the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee raised the intended Fed Funds rate from 1.00% to 1.25%.  This was the last first time we had an initial hike in interest rates (yes you read that correctly).  A lot has happened since this last first hike.  I did the quick math and my intern was nine years old, so she’s learned to drive and reached a major milestone that goes along with being 21 years old.  When we last had a rise in rates ISIS was either a pharmaceutical[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Dec 9, 2015, 11:39 AM

    An Early Retrospective on ^SPX and ^RUT

    An Early Retrospective on ^SPX and ^RUT

    The end of any calendar year gives us a perfect opportunity to look back and evaluate the year that was, and perhaps prognosticate about the year that may be. The ^SPX closed @ 2,058.90 on 12/31/14 – up nearly 12% in 2014. As I type, the ^SPX is 2,068 – up fractionally for 2015. Yesterday and today we traded either side of unchanged on the ^SPX for 2015. The broad market is oscillating between 2080 and 2,052. Yesterday the Energy sector was weighing heavily on the market and when Crude[...]

  • The "Data Dependent" Fed Continues to Consider the Data

    The "Data Dependent" Fed Continues to Consider the Data

    This afternoon the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were released. Yesterday the market digested the October CPI (inflation) data. Next week, GDP (Tuesday) and Durable Goods (Wednesday) will be relatively important. Without question, the upcoming Unemployment Report (Non-Farm Payrolls) on 12/4 will be the most influential piece of economic data before the December Fed Meeting where most market participants anticipate the Fed will raise interest rates[...]

  • Put the Short Premium in the Bag

    Put the Short Premium in the Bag

    The tale of October happens to be the tale of my friend, "Mr. G," and what he did to turn $39,727.47 on September 30th into $56,239.25 on October 31st.  How's that for some trick-or-treat plunder? Here is the breakdown, separated by types of trades, of which there were only a few.  I'll number the types and show the dates and entry and exit points. 1. The greatest number of trades were made by selling short shares of TVIX on different dates between September 22nd and October 23rd,[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | Strategy | Oct 16, 2015, 12:28 PM

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: The Bullish Case is Still Strong

    Weekly Stock Market Commentary: The Bullish Case is Still Strong

    The stock market has taken on a much more bullish tone since the late- September lows.  We had several buy signals on September 30th, and they were well-timed.  The bullish case is still strong, even after $SPX has advanced 150 points this month. The $SPX chart is bullish.  $SPX broke out over 2000 last week, and this week it pulled back to that (general) level before moving to new relative highs once again.  Hence the breakout over 2000 was retested, and that retest was successful. Equity-only[...]

  • VIX over 20.00 Streak Ends at 30 Days - So Now What?

    VIX over 20.00 Streak Ends at 30 Days - So Now What?

    Even the VIX tourists were paying attention to the long running streak where VIX closed over 20.00.  The run ended at 30 today with VIX finishing at 19.54.   This was not nearly as fun as watching Pete Rose in the summer of 1978, but for some of us, it was quite a ride.  When Pete didn't get a hit on August 1st he was asked what he would do tomorrow, his response, "I guess start another streak".  Unfortunately we can't stick a microphone in front of VIX and ask what[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Strategy | Oct 1, 2015, 11:35 AM

    Interest Rate Volatility and TYVIX Discussed at RMC Europe

    Interest Rate Volatility and TYVIX Discussed at RMC Europe

    On Wednesday, September 30, in Geneva, Switzerland at the Fourth Annual CBOE Risk Management Conference (RMC) Europe, two experts – (1) Maneesh Deshpande, Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy, Barclays, and (2) David Rogal, Director and Portfolio Manager, BlackRock-- engaged in a discussion of - Focus on Interest Rate Volatility VIX versus TYVIX CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index: Similarities and differences Comparing volatility risk premia in rates[...]