Trade Ideas Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 24, 2016, 2:01 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Options - 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Options - 7/18/2016 - 7/22/2016

    Last week the performance for the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) was as close as I’ve seen it since I’ve been doing these blogs.  RUI gained 0.67% and RUT was higher by 0.65% for what we will say is within the margin of error (I’m stealing from the political polls).  For the year RUT is maintaining a small lead on RUI up 6.78% versus 6.40%.  This is the second week in a row with RUT in the lead which is pretty impressive considering back in February RUT[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 17, 2016, 12:00 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 7/11 - 7/15

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 7/11 - 7/15

    With VIX testing 2016 lows this past week the soon to be retired July future headed lower at a slightly faster rate than VIX dropping 6.43% versus 4.02%.  Even with the bigger loss on the week the July contract finished the week at more than a one premium to VIX.  We will see on Wednesday morning if the futures or the spot index win the tug of war into July settlement.  I would be remiss if I didn’t point out the steepness of the VIX curve from August to December.  VIX is[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 16, 2016, 12:00 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/11 - 7/15

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 7/11 - 7/15

    Short term volatility was the big loser among the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes as VXST lost over 10% last week.  This was more than two times the drop in VIX and more than three times the drop in VXV and VXMT.  The result is a pretty darn steep curve indicating concerns about the second half of this year for the stock market are lurking around in option volatility. Despite the drop in VIX the VIX of VIX rose last week.  As I typed that I realized that two[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 16, 2016, 7:36 AM

    Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and...VIX shortcake

    Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie, and...VIX shortcake

    If you can't wear shorts in the summer, when can you?  At the time of my last writing, I was showing off a pair:  TVIX and UVXY, which everyone knows are really just two legs of the same thing (for my purposes, anyway).  Even though I had donned one leg before the other (I put my pants on one leg at a time, just like everyone else), I took them both off in one motion, as such: But only one day later, my thoughts were consumed in the following manner: From WikiHow's "How[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 14, 2016, 1:34 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 7/18 - 7/22

    Earnings Next Week - 7/18 - 7/22

    Finally!  The second quarter earnings season kicks into high gear next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results unless the ticker is in itallics.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 13, 2016, 12:13 AM

    When VIX and SPX Rise Together - the 2016 Version

    When VIX and SPX Rise Together - the 2016 Version

    On July 11 and July 12 both the S&P 500 and VIX rose on the day.  This brought out an old blog I wrote in 2013 discussing what the stock market has historically done when both the S&P 500 and VIX rise two days in a row.  I updated the numbers from that last study and now we have 92 occurrences where both indexes rose two days in a row (today was number 93 and the jury is still out on the subsequent market action.  The table below summarizes what the S&P 500 did on average[...]

  • Market News | Education | Trade Ideas | Jul 12, 2016, 10:31 AM

    New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options To Launch Next Month

    New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options To Launch Next Month

    CBOE recently announced that it plans to list S&P 500® Index (SPX) Monday-expiring Weeklys options, beginning August 15, pending regulatory approval.  With the expected introduction of SPX "Monday Weeklys," CBOE will offer SPX options with Monday, Wednesday and Friday expirations. SPX Weeklys are one of CBOE's fastest-growing products, with volume in 2015 setting a 10th consecutive annual record. The chart below shows that SPX Wednesday-expiring weekly options set new volume[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jul 10, 2016, 12:18 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 7/5/2016 - 7/8/2016

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 7/5/2016 - 7/8/2016

    VIX finished the week at 13.20 – only 0.10 higher than lowest 2016 close of 13.10.  The front month (July) futures contract was down slightly more than VIX this past week.  Anecdotally I’ve noticed in the past when we see VIX down significantly in reaction to the employment number that the front month contract seems to give up extra value.  I attribute this to a lack of anticipated market news after the employment number until expiration. At least on trader[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 9, 2016, 12:07 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/5/2016 - 7/8/2016

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 7/5/2016 - 7/8/2016

    On Thursday there was a trending hashtag on Twitter #ThursdayThoughts or something like that.  I was tempted to tweet something like “Buy on any weakness #ThursdayThoughts” but was afraid CBOE wouldn’t find the humor in something that looks like a recommendation.  However, if I had done so I would have looked darn good on Friday.  The tide took all ships higher with RUT gaining 2.4% on the day and RUI up 1.5%.  The Friday rally helped place RUT up 3.65% for the[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jul 8, 2016, 10:59 AM

    Gold - Where's the Risk?

    Gold - Where's the Risk?

    I’ve kept my eye off gold this year and boy have I missed a ride. The GLD ETF is up about 28% in 2016 which leaves most markets in the dust. Apparently #Gold is a trending topic today on Twitter as well. S0 even though the shiny metal is higher, is there any opportunity being anticipated for the rest of 2016? To get a feel for what the market thinks, I always consult option implied volatility. Luckily CBOE has the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) where I can get an idea if option[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 7, 2016, 4:37 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 7/11 - 7/15

    Earnings Next Week - 7/11 - 7/15

    Things start to get interesting as the early reporters give us results for the second quarter beginning next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 6, 2016, 2:02 PM

    Three Trades for #NationalFriedChickenDay

    Three Trades for #NationalFriedChickenDay

    Nothing gets the instructors at the Options Institute more excited than national holidays. Today’s event is National Fried Chicken Day which has us collectively getting together to determine how investors and traders can use the option market to trade America’s second favorite fried food. Peter Lusk suggested we take a look at Yum Brands (YUM) which owns his favorite fast food outlet Kentucky Fried Chicken or just KFC for the kids. Peter is often seen on the weekend heading home on his[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jul 5, 2016, 4:49 PM

    Profiting from the Side Dishes

    Profiting from the Side Dishes

    If it sounded like I had a little trick up my sleeve upon hastily closing my last post with a promise of quick and interesting updates, here's a confession:  Yes, one typing hand closed the post while the other was closing my TVIX short (see detail below). Crown jewel of June 21st, an otherwise lackluster day Everyone who lived through it will agree that nothing in particular happened on June 21st, but somehow I got a little shaken up inside and decided it was a good idea to close[...]

  • Market News | Trade Ideas | Jul 5, 2016, 11:59 AM

    Earnings Week of 7/5/2016 - 7/8/2016

    Earnings Week of 7/5/2016 - 7/8/2016

    This is the last of the lull weeks with only two companies reporting earnings that have short dated options available for trading.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jul 3, 2016, 9:20 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/27 - 7/1

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/27 - 7/1

    The curve below is what happens when you have the biggest week over week drop for VIX on record. The 42% loss in VIX shattered the previous largest drop of 36.53% which occurred in the last week of 2012. Not so coincidentally both were weeks before a three-day weekend. Late Monday, with the July VIX Futures at 23.70 and spot VIX at 23.85 someone came in taking a long position in the VIX Jul 20th 22 Puts paying 2.75. The payoff at July settlement appears below, but by the end of the week[...]