Trade Ideas Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Trade Ideas | Jun 28, 2016, 9:19 AM

    How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

    How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

    Editors note - the following blog was put together by a team of interns from CBOE.  Nicholas Ghilardi will be a Junior at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign and is majoring in Engineering Physics with a minor in Mathematics. Gillian Hood will be Junior at Vanderbilt University and is majoring in Economics with minors in Corporate Strategy and Finance. Noah Silverman will be a Sophomore at Washington University in St. Louis and is majoring in Finance.  Last Thursday,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 26, 2016, 6:30 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Volatility and Options - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Volatility and Options - 6/20 - 6/24

    Both large and small cap stocks got hit on a week over week basis, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) holding up slightly better (-1.47%) than the Russell 1000 (RUI) which lost 1.62%. For the year both are down less than 1% with RUI holding a slight year to date performance edge of 0.40%. In the past when there is heightened concern regarding the global equity markets the RVX / VIX premium tends to drop to low level. That happened in early 2016 and that happened again Friday as the premium[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 26, 2016, 2:41 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 6/20 - 6/24

    On Thursday the world appeared to have dodged a bullet, but much like counting your chickens before the hatch, the market reacted a little too quickly and early to the assumed outcome of the EU referendum in Britain. The result was Friday which does not need to be rehashed here. The week over week changes for VIX and the standard monthly VIX futures appear below. Things we look more dramatic if I’d use the Thursday to Friday changes to construct the chart. Periodically I’ll[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 25, 2016, 1:12 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/20 - 6/24

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/20 - 6/24

    Global stocks took it on the chin Friday after the outcome for the vote in Britain determined that the majority of voters want to break from the European Union. Usually I show the week over week change for VXST, VIX, VXV, and VXMT to lead off this blog. Because the week over week change doesn’t tell the full story I included the closing prices from Thursday as well. The lowest line on the chart shows the closing levels for each of these S&P 500 oriented volatility indexes the day before[...]

  • Market News | Trade Ideas | Jun 24, 2016, 1:26 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 6/27 - 7/1

    Earnings Next Week - 6/27 - 7/1

    It is a very quiet week as once again only four companies with short dated options will be reporting earnings.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 22, 2016, 1:53 PM

    Taking Apples from Somewhere Near the Top of the Tree

    Taking Apples from Somewhere Near the Top of the Tree

    The best way to tell a story (well, maybe not always) is to tell it in the order in which it happened. In this case, I'll start where I left off, and that means to describe the mystery position I took at the end of the last post. I made mention of it, but did not divulge it. It turns out I opened and closed that position all on the same day, so that by the time my last article went to press, it was already in the can. Here's the rundown for my June 3rd open/shut: Pictorial illustration of the entry[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 19, 2016, 10:48 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/13 - 6/17

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/13 - 6/17

    Despite global concerns dominating the market chatter last week, large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks. Both were lower as the Russell 1000 (RUI) lost 1.16% while the Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up 1.65%. RUI widened the lead on RUT and is now up 1.33% for 2016 while RUT is still higher, but by only 0.78%. The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) rose last week, but not nearly as much as the gains we saw from VIX. As global concerns entered the marketplace, the RVX[...]

  • Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/13 - 6/17

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/13 - 6/17

    The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve moved from contango to an unusual shape this past week. Lots of things point to the markets being concerned about next week’s ‘should I stay or should I go’ vote in Britain. VXST represents short term SPX option volatility and the options that expire just after the vote are feeding that calculation.  I’m going to say results in VXST finishing the week at such an elevated level last week have a little to do with Brexit. With[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 17, 2016, 11:00 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/13 - 6/17

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/13 - 6/17

    I’ve been around long enough to remember when the time in the markets between Memorial Day and Labor Day were quiet enough for traders to spend several afternoons at Wrigley field without feeling they were missing anything. This past week no one could have gotten away with playing hooky. As the stock market came under pressure, VIX climbed to the highest levels we have seen since February. Everyone is focused on Brexit as the ‘reason’ for the markets to be doing what they are doing.[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 16, 2016, 6:18 PM

    A Quick Look at Options versus Futures

    A Quick Look at Options versus Futures

    When short dated options were introduced on stocks and ETFs I made an assumption. We all know assumptions may be wrong, and that is the case here. I thought the major use of short dated options would be to take advantage of at the money time decay.   I was actually half wrong as we do see option short sellers come into the market place fairly frequently when expiration is approaching. The use I did not foresee involves using a short dated options as a substitute for a futures trade. A few[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 15, 2016, 7:17 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 6/20 - 6/24

    Earnings Next Week - 6/20 - 6/24

    It is a very quiet week for earnings enthusiasts as only four companies with short dated options will be reporting earnings.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 13, 2016, 11:10 AM

    #Brexit Update from Social Market Analytics

    #Brexit Update from Social Market Analytics

    Over the weekend I noticed the headlines regarding Brexit.  It appears the polls are starting to point to a shift in sentiment with respect to Britain exiting the EU. Those leaning toward leaving seem to slightly outnumber those who consider staying in the EU a good idea. To see how the situation looks from a social media standpoint I asked the guys at Social Market Analytics for a quick update. This first graph shows that over the last 24 hours 213,595 tweets have included the hashtag[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 12, 2016, 12:00 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/6 - 6/10

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/6 - 6/10

    Only 5 basis points separate the 2016 performance for the Russell 2000 (RUT) and Russell 1000 (RUI). As of Friday RUI was in the lead, but do note early last week RUT finally surpassed RUI performance for 2016. The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) rose last week, as did just about every volatility index CBOE calculates. However, the rise in RVX lagged the rise in VIX on a percentage basis which resulted in a drop in the RVX / VIX premium to the lowest levels since March of this[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jun 12, 2016, 10:29 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/6 - 6/10

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 6/6 - 6/10

    June VIX settlement is on the horizon, just two trading days and an overnight to Wednesday’s AM settlement. I mention that as a lead off in this space as I find the June futures at a premium to spot VIX kind of interesting considering VIX rose 26% last week. Admittedly, a 0.50 premium isn’t all that much, but any premium at all makes me think traders are still on edge after the S&P 500 price action last week and now going into two weeks with big known unknowns (FOMC this week[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 11, 2016, 12:23 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/6 - 6/10

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/6 - 6/10

    Last week VIX rose every day which isn’t all that unusual.   What was ground breaking was that VIX rose each of the first three days last week despite the S&P 500 moving up as well. I decided to take a look at what has happened in the past when both the S&P 500 and VIX rise together for three consecutive days. The result, it's not as uncommon as I thought, we've had 17 occurrences of three up together.  However, the last time was in January 2013. VVIX[...]