Trade Ideas Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 21, 2016, 10:18 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/16 - 5/20

    Talk of the Fed raising rates after the June 16 – 17 two-day meeting that is looming has been heating up. If those that control such things are seeing pockets of growth in the US economy and consider it safe to raise rates, then growth must be back in fashion right? Well, that’s how the Russell 2000 (RUT) acted last week relative to the Russell 1000 (RUI) with the small cap benchmark rising a little more than 0.5% more than the Russell 1000 gained. RUT is still down on the year, but made[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 19, 2016, 3:48 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/23 - 5/27

    Earnings Next Week - 5/23 - 5/27

    Again, next week is all about retail which should be interesting since the results have been pretty mixed.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  In the case of HPE (in italics below) there was less than 3 years of[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Education | Trade Ideas | May 19, 2016, 1:43 PM

    The United Kingdom has Options….and So Do You

    The United Kingdom has Options….and So Do You

    The CBOE is the leader in listed Index and Equity options – and every so often there is a geopolitical event that can have reverberations in our financial markets. In just the past handful of years, we have experienced significant moves in volatility (both realized and implied) from elections and referendums, typically stemming from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. On Thursday June 23rd, a referendum will be held to decide whether or not Britain should leave the European Union. Keep[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 15, 2016, 3:54 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/9 - 5/13

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/9 - 5/13

    After starting the week off on a bullish note, the S&P 500 finished out down just over a half a percent for the week. VIX was up just a bit more than 2%, most likely being held back by weakness that was associated with the S&P 500 moving higher on Monday and Tuesday last week. The spread between the May VIX future and spot index is pretty narrow finishing Friday at less than a point. Not only did the spread between the May futures and spot VIX index narrow, but a portion of the curve actually[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 15, 2016, 2:09 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/9 - 5/13

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/9 - 5/13

    There was a slight twist in the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve last week as the shorter dated indexes rose and the two long dated indexes dropped slightly. Although unusual, I am not reading too much into this as the curve was already pretty steep and remains so after relatively small changes across the board last week. While updating the numbers below the first thing that stood out to me was the continued elevated level of VVIX. With VIX up a bit, but still in the 15’s[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 14, 2016, 5:14 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 5/9 - 5/13

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 5/9 - 5/13

    According to some of the headlines I came across this week, stock market participants are worried about economic growth. This concern about growth showed up in the relative performance of the Russell 2000 (RUT) and Russell 1000 (RUI) this week as RUT was down twice as much as RUI (-1.10% versus -0.54%). This places RUT down a little less than 3% for the year and RUI precariously in the green by a single basis point. Concerns over growth continue to show up in the relationship between[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 13, 2016, 4:24 PM

    Russell 2000 Futures vs. Short Call Spread from Last Week

    Russell 2000 Futures vs. Short Call Spread from Last Week

    Every weekend I write a brief blog discussing the performance of the Russell 2000, how the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index is reacting to market conditions, and pick out a RUT trade or other piece of market information that looks interesting (at least to me). Last week I noted a bear call spread using Russell 2000 Index Options that sold a deep in the money call and purchased a slightly out of the money call, both of which expired this week. The specific trade involved selling the RUT May 13th[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 13, 2016, 9:21 AM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/16 - 5/20

    Earnings Next Week - 5/16 - 5/20

    Next week is all about retail which should be interesting since Macy's (M) woes were a big focus this week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 8, 2016, 1:09 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/2 - 5/6

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/2 - 5/6

    The S&P 500 was down 0.44% last week which places the index up only 0.65% for the year. Three out of the four S&P 500 focused volatility indexes were also lower last week, despite the drop in the S&P 500. I find the longer end of the curve holding up like it has for most of 2016 interesting as well as worrisome, at least if you are bullish on stocks. In the ETP space VXX was down by 5.11% and UVXY lost a little over twice as much at VXX. SVXY put up a decent week gaining[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 7, 2016, 11:35 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/2 - 5/6

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/2 - 5/6

    VIX dropped last week, with a big part of the drop coming Friday afternoon. Note the futures followed suit, but specifically note that the front month May future gave up a little more ground than spot VIX. This is sort of common when we have an employment number. Also note how flat the curve is from July through November – the theory is that the Fed is out of play between the conventions and the election which may result in relative calm for the financial markets. Late Thursday[...]

  • Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/2 - 5/6

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/2 - 5/6

    Small cap stocks get so close and then seem to fall back when reaching unchanged on the year or catching up with the performance of large cap stocks. This week the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped 1.44% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) lost 0.49%. This places RUT in the red by 1.86% for 2016 while RUI is still up 0.55%. With the underperformance of small cap stocks last week came a relative rise in the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX). The RVX / VIX premium began the[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 4, 2016, 9:28 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/9 - 5/13

    Earnings Next Week - 5/9 - 5/13

    The earnings calendar continues to offer several opportunities to trade around announcements next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.   As always, dates are as of the date of publication and are subject to[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 1, 2016, 12:47 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 4/25 - 4/29

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 4/25 - 4/29

    With the drop in the S&P 500 last week VIX rallied almost 20%. Contango was pretty steep going into the week so the front month May future gained just over 4% as the index played some catch up with the futures contract. The generic curve I create with the front five weeks of futures managed to shift higher, but also remain in a pretty steep angle. We have less than a year of data to work with, but so far flat is the most common shape for this curve. Only for the last few[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 1, 2016, 11:30 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/25 - 4/29

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/25 - 4/29

    The weakness in the S&P 500 last week, although not really dramatic, did result in pretty big moves out of the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes. They were coming off pretty low levels which attributes to the large moves, at least on a percentage basis. The curve remains steep, which indicates the market remains concerned about whether stocks can move to the upside this year. On the table below VVIX continues to stand out finishing the week over 90.00. Two weeks ago TYVIX[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 1, 2016, 9:24 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 4/25 - 4/29

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 4/25 - 4/29

    Stocks had a tough week and the Russell 2000 (RUT) was down 1.4% on the week and took the small cap benchmark from positive to negative territory for 2016. Large cap stocks held up a bit better with the Russell 1000 (RUI) losing 1.26% and the large cap benchmark remains positive on the year by just over 1%. Even though RUT underperformed a bit, the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) premium to VIX dropped a bit and both volatility indexes climbed last week.  The RVX / VIX[...]