Trade Ideas Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 7, 2016, 2:41 PM

    Plans are Meant for Re-Planning

    Plans are Meant for Re-Planning

    At my last writing on Tuesday, May 17th, I had just sold to open SVXY 55.50 puts for the May 20th expiration at 1.45 per contract.  My pledge was to stick to my plan and that's what I did:  I let those expire and realized full profit over the weekend when the contract expired worthless to the buyer.  It was rough going, though, with the high, low, and close of SVXY over the intervening days as shown below:   SVXY's closing price on Friday, May 20th was over $55.50,[...]

  • Market News | Trade Ideas | Jun 5, 2016, 2:25 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 6/6 - 6/10

    Earnings Next Week - 6/6 - 6/10

    It is a very quiet week for earnings enthusiasts as only three companies with short dated options will be reporting earnings.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 5, 2016, 1:55 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/31 - 6/3

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/31 - 6/3

    The whole curve shifted a bit higher last week. We have to attribute the rise to the three-day weekend effect. At least in the case of VXST and VIX. Typically, VXV and VXMT are not impacted as much as the shorter dated volatility indexes. I might attribute the rise of longer dated volatility to the expected date for the next rate hike being pushed down the road. Despite the rise in VIX last week, the long volatility oriented ETPs were lower on the week. This is a function of the futures[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 4, 2016, 5:54 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/31 - 6/3

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/31 - 6/3

    The S&P 500 was slightly higher last week and so was VIX, but we put an asterisk next to that number based on the three-day holiday weekend. The futures tell more of the story and as you can see below as with the exception of the February 2017 contract all the futures moved lower. Friday morning the stock market was weak and VIX was higher in reaction to the employment numbers. With VIX at 13.93 and the Jun VIX futures contract at 15.10 someone came in and bought 2500 of the VIX Jun[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 4, 2016, 12:05 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 5/31 - 6/3

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 5/31 - 6/3

    The Russell 2000 - How about that??? I hear Mel Allen’s voice as I type that. Small caps went on a relative tear last week with the Russell 2000 (RUT) rising 1.19% last week while the large cap focused Russell 1000 was up 0.10%. This places RUT up 2.49% for 2016, within striking distance of the Russell 1000 which is up 2.73% year to date. More impressive is the relative performance since the lows in February. RUT has rebounded 22.1% off this year’s closing low and RUI is up 15.6% over[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 29, 2016, 9:26 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/23 - 5/27

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/23 - 5/27

    The S&P 500 rally along with the three-day weekend effect pushed VXST to finish Friday below 10.00 for the first time since July of last year. The VXST - VIX - VXV - VXMT curve moved lower and steepened a bit based on the calendar and the strength in the market. Looking at the table below it is like several indexes and instruments are playing limbo seeing how low they can go. VXX and the unleveraged long ETPs lost 10% while the leveraged funds gave up almost 20%. Check[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 28, 2016, 2:41 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 5/23 - 5/27

    Weekend Review - VIX Futures and Options - 5/23 - 5/27

    With the strength in stocks last week VIX finished the week just 0.02 higher than the 2016 closing low of 13.10. Always remember that part of the equation on Fridays when looking at VIX performance relates to a weekend impact where the market is closed for two days. This is accentuated when we have a three day holiday weekend so don’t be surprised if VIX rebounds a little on Tuesday regardless of what the stock market is doing. About 20 minutes after the open on Wednesday last week someone[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 28, 2016, 9:18 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 5/23 - 5/27

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Index and Volatility - 5/23 - 5/27

    Small cap stocks continue to show some strength with the Russell 2000 (RUT) beating the Russell 1000 (RUI) for the second week in a row. Is this the beginning of a streak? RUT rose 3.43% last week while the large cap focused RUI gained 2.28%. For the year RUT is now up 1.28%, still lagging RUI which is up 2.63%. The RVX / VIX premium remains at the high end of this year’s range, despite the strong performance from small cap stocks. It may be that the uncertainty about the Fed’s[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 25, 2016, 3:17 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/31 - 6/3

    Earnings Next Week - 5/31 - 6/3

    It's a short week, next week as we move into the summer months.  Despite that we still have a few companies set to report earnings next week.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 22, 2016, 6:00 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/16 - 5/20

    The combination of VIX moving lower and June becoming the front month put some pressure on the June futures last week. I think maybe the lack of news flow expected over the next couple of weeks has something to do with that as well. Note the bifurcated futures performance from last week with many longer dated futures rising, which maybe could be the risk of higher rates or an ‘interesting’ presidential election hovering over the markets. Finally, I always like to periodically point out[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 21, 2016, 12:47 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/16 - 5/20

    With the S&P 500 zig zagging this week, but finishing up by just over a quarter of one percent the curve was little changed. With one exception, VXST dropped 10% after we got past the FOMC minutes and the markets started to look forward to nothing for the next couple of weeks. VIX and VXMT rose and VXV was lower. I can’t remember the curve shifting like this ever, but since three out of the four moves were pretty small I wouldn’t read too much into it. The long VIX related[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 21, 2016, 10:18 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/16 - 5/20

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/16 - 5/20

    Talk of the Fed raising rates after the June 16 – 17 two-day meeting that is looming has been heating up. If those that control such things are seeing pockets of growth in the US economy and consider it safe to raise rates, then growth must be back in fashion right? Well, that’s how the Russell 2000 (RUT) acted last week relative to the Russell 1000 (RUI) with the small cap benchmark rising a little more than 0.5% more than the Russell 1000 gained. RUT is still down on the year, but made[...]

  • Market News | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 19, 2016, 3:48 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/23 - 5/27

    Earnings Next Week - 5/23 - 5/27

    Again, next week is all about retail which should be interesting since the results have been pretty mixed.  As always the data below is based on the last three years of earnings results, unless the data is in italics.  In those cases less than three years worth of history is available.  The columns show the biggest rally, biggest drop, average move, and what the stock did last quarter in reaction to earnings.  In the case of HPE (in italics below) there was less than 3 years of[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Education | Trade Ideas | May 19, 2016, 1:43 PM

    The United Kingdom has Options….and So Do You

    The United Kingdom has Options….and So Do You

    The CBOE is the leader in listed Index and Equity options – and every so often there is a geopolitical event that can have reverberations in our financial markets. In just the past handful of years, we have experienced significant moves in volatility (both realized and implied) from elections and referendums, typically stemming from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. On Thursday June 23rd, a referendum will be held to decide whether or not Britain should leave the European Union. Keep[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 15, 2016, 3:54 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/9 - 5/13

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 5/9 - 5/13

    After starting the week off on a bullish note, the S&P 500 finished out down just over a half a percent for the week. VIX was up just a bit more than 2%, most likely being held back by weakness that was associated with the S&P 500 moving higher on Monday and Tuesday last week. The spread between the May VIX future and spot index is pretty narrow finishing Friday at less than a point. Not only did the spread between the May futures and spot VIX index narrow, but a portion of the curve actually[...]