Trade Ideas Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 4, 2016, 1:35 PM

    Earnings This Week - 4/4 - 4/8

    Earnings This Week - 4/4 - 4/8

    This will be the last quiet earnings week for about a month.  The numbers below represent three years of history.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.  

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Trade Ideas | Apr 3, 2016, 11:11 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 3/28 - 4/1

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 3/28 - 4/1

    VIX closed on the 2016 lows last week and flirted with a 12 handle. I was asked at a seminar in Scottsdale, AZ on Thursday night how long it will take for VIX to touch 12. I responded that I had a hard time seeing a 12 handle this year. It won’t take much for me to be proven wrong. Something that keeps me in the higher volatility regime camp is the relative level of VIX futures to spot VIX. Note below that the April futures are at a hefty premium to spot VIX despite getting the monthly employment[...]

  • Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/28 - 4/1

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/28 - 4/1

    Don’t fight the Fed. That’s a rule we must all live by and long volatility is a fight that isn’t winning these days. Note the drop in the week over week curves below and keep in mind that on March 24th there was a three day weekend in front of VXST which makes that drop even more dramatic. The curve is steep, which can be taken as longer term concerns prevail, but for the near term those looking for higher volatility have stopped fighting. The long funds on the table[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 25, 2016, 9:19 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/21 - 3/24

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/21 - 3/24

    The S&P 500 was slightly lower last week, ruining a five week winning streak.  This gave three of the four volatility indexes on the chart below a chance to rebound from 2016 lows.  The exception is VXST, but we give this one a break since three day weekends are always tough on VXST. The choppiness in the volatility space last week, along with the front month future actually losing a little value did no favors for the VIX related ETPs.  UVXY was up almost 9% for the week early[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Mar 19, 2016, 4:29 PM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/14 - 3/18

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/14 - 3/18

    I’m honestly surprised and admitting that I have been very wrong in trying to guess at the VIX action lately.  I never would have expected a 13 handle for VIX, but low and behold that’s what we got on Friday.  When I return to work on Monday I will spend a little time on the wall of shame. Even the longer dated volatility indexes have given up the fight with VXV and VXMT closing near the respective 2015 averages after remaining at elevated levels for most of 2016. VXX[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Mar 19, 2016, 2:38 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/14 - 3/18

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/14 - 3/18

    I guess I have to try to work some sort of St. Patrick’s Day theme in here since the Russell 1000 (RUI) went from red to green on the year last week, but I’m too worn out to come up with anything clever.  Also, it is difficult to get too excited over an index that is up 0.05% for the year.  Since I’m trying to be funny, here’s a lame attempt, the Russell 2000 (RUT) remains in a rut for 2016, even after gaining 1.3% last week the small cap benchmark is still 3% lower[...]

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 17, 2016, 8:14 AM

    Earnings Week of 3/21 - 3/25

    Earnings Week of 3/21 - 3/25

    It's a very quiet week next week on the earnings front with the highlight being NKE.  The numbers below represent three years of history.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.  

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Mar 14, 2016, 12:59 PM

    Earnings Week of 3/14 - 3/18

    Earnings Week of 3/14 - 3/18

    Apologies for being late to the game, luckily we do have some big names reporting later this week so this blog may still be useful for many readers. The numbers below represent three years of history.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Trade Ideas | Mar 13, 2016, 10:04 AM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/7 - 3/11

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/7 - 3/11

    After stumbling a bit last week both the Russell 1000 (RUI) and Russell 2000 (RUT) moved higher with RUI up by about 1% and RUT rising 0.5%.  this is the first week in a while where RUT under performed RUI and the small cap benchmark is now lagging the large cap Russell 1000 by 3% for 2016. The relative implied volatility ticked up a bit for the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index when compared to VIX.  The 2016 closing high for the RVX / VIX ratio occurred on February 1st and[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Mar 12, 2016, 10:55 AM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 3/7 - 3/11

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 3/7 - 3/11

    VIX dropped just over 2% which isn’t that much considering we got a 1% rise in the stock market.  The curve remains in a fairly common state of contango.  Standard March futures settle Wednesday on the open and the spread of over a point also makes me wonder if volatility traders are buying into higher stock prices. I did a little more digging on VIX price action, really just looking for the 2016 intraday-low which I assumed occurred last week.  I assumed wrong. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 6, 2016, 7:03 PM

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/29 - 3/4

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/29 - 3/4

    The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to show some resilience rising over 4% last week and closing the 2016 performance gap with the Russell 1000 (RUI). The long term average for the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) relative to VIX has been about 20% which is where we are now.  For some time back in the fourth quarter of last year we spent much more time closer to parity between RVX and VIX. An interesting trade was executed on Friday around lunchtime, with RUT trading near[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Mar 6, 2016, 12:44 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/29 - 3/4

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/29 - 3/4

    VIX gave up over 14% as the S&P 500 tried to work back to the 2000’s last week, falling short by 0.01.  Note the steepness of the curve below with the standard March contract at over a two point premium to spot VIX. The generic curve is also a bit steep, considering it is normally pretty flat.  VIX may be low, but even the short dated futures are braced for higher levels.   With VIX under pressure on Friday, someone came in to the market using one of my favorite[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 6, 2016, 8:36 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/29 - 3/4

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/29 - 3/4

    The S&P 500 rose about 2.7% last week and shorter term volatility took it on the chin with VXST and VIX both down over 14%.  The longer dated volatility indexes were lower as well, but as show below, remain elevated compared to their respective averages last year.  You can read that as the market still bracing for higher volatility over the balance of 2016 (or at least until 6 months from now). The long and long leveraged VIX realted ETPs were down last week with VXX dropping[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Mar 5, 2016, 9:45 AM

    VIX Death Cross Update

    VIX Death Cross Update

    This past week I got to attend CBOE’s Risk Management Conference in Florida and finished my week at Oklahoma State as a guest lecturer.  When I travel like this I am not watching the markets as closely as I would like and as I updated charts this morning I nervously scanned the numbers used to create the chart below.  I say nervously because I was afraid I had dropped the ball on catching the VIX Death Cross.  It turns out I updated charts just in time. Yesterday (3/4) was the[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 4, 2016, 1:40 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 3/7 - 3/11

    Earnings Next Week - 3/7 - 3/11

    The numbers below represent three years of history with a couple of exceptions which have not been around long enough to provide a full three years of history.  In those cases the data appears in italics.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.