Trade Ideas Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2016, 1:07 PM

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/8 - 2/12

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/8 - 2/12

    Three out of the four S&P 500 volatility oriented indexes were higher last week.  The shortest dated one, VXST, dropped a little.  We attribute this to the three day weekend impact that puts pressure on VXST, but also usually results in VXST rising the day after a holiday weekend.  For example on Friday VXST dropped 17% while VIX was down 9.74%.  I guess what I’m getting at here is that we should focus on the longer dated volatility indexes on the chart below to get[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2016, 7:30 AM

    Weekly Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/8 - 2/12

    Weekly Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/8 - 2/12

    I had to double check the numbers when I looked at the closing curve this week as I had forgotten this was a holiday shortened week.  For those new to VIX, the calculation is based on calendar days and there is usually a small weekend impact which is exacerbated by three day weekends.  The futures anticipate this and don’t follow VIX to the downside.  In addition to the long weekend, there is a lack of big economic numbers or new scheduled for Tuesday which also may have had[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Feb 11, 2016, 12:26 PM

    Earnings Next Week 2/15 - 2/19

    Earnings Next Week 2/15 - 2/19

    We have a holiday shortened week and earnings season is approaching the end of the heavy period, but there are plenty of companies left to report.  Thirty six companies with short dated options available for trading release numbers next week.  The numbers below represent three years of history with a couple of exceptions which have not been around long enough to provide a full three years of history.  In those cases the data appears in italics.   After the ticker the columns show[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Education | Trade Ideas | Feb 10, 2016, 1:00 PM

    Record Open Interest of 2,333 Contracts for Options on MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF)

    Record Open Interest of 2,333 Contracts for Options on MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF)

    The open interest for options on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) recently rose to a record 2,333 contacts. Several institutional investors have expressed interest in the potential for a liquid MXEF options contract, particularly because the MXEF options contract is cash-settled and has a notional size that is about 24 times larger than options on the EEM ETF. IMPORTANT MSCI GLOBAL INDEXES In mid-2015 the total market capitalizations were $13 trillion for MSCI EAFE (MXEA) and $4 trillion for[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 7, 2016, 12:15 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/1 - 2/5

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/1 - 2/5

    Friday provided our first glimpse into how the economy was faring in January and the stock market apparently didn’t like what it saw.  VIX finished the day up 7% which was just under half the over 15% rise we got last week.  The February future managed an 11% gain to finish higher than spot VIX.  However, backwardation is still in place with the February contract higher than the March contract.  More on this after the chart and table below. I’ve been obsessively[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Feb 6, 2016, 3:50 PM

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/1 - 2/5

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/1 - 2/5

    VIX rose last week as did the rest of the volatility indexes that based their levels on S&P 500 Index (SPX) option pricing.  Usually in times of panic VXST (9-day volatility) rises above VIX (30-day volatility), but that was not the case this past week.  You can read this two ways – traders think stocks will rebound or traders are mentally prepared for more downside in the market.  I’m leaning toward the latter. I decided to leave the year to date numbers[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Feb 4, 2016, 6:09 PM

    Block Trade Analysis - Bearish SPX Trade in Front of Employment Report

    Block Trade Analysis - Bearish SPX Trade in Front of Employment Report

    Tomorrow we get the first look at how the economy fared in January.  This insight comes with the release of the January Non-Farm Payrolls number.  I went searching for a trade or two executed late Thursday that may indicate a bullish or bearish market outlook in front of the number. I didn’t have to look too much to find an interesting trade..  Just before the SPX option market closed at 3:15 pm Chicago time there was a buyer of about 500 SPX Feb 26th 1920 Puts at 41.70. [...]

  • Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Feb 4, 2016, 5:03 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 2/8 - 2/12

    Earnings Next Week - 2/8 - 2/12

    Earnings season is approaching the end of the heavy period, but there are plenty of companies left to report.  The numbers below represent three years of history with a couple of exceptions which have not been around long enough to provide a full three years of history.  In those cases the data appears in italics.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.

  • Education | Trade Ideas | Feb 4, 2016, 9:46 AM

    Open Interest for Options on MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) Tops 600 Contracts

    Open Interest for Options on MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) Tops 600 Contracts

    This last week the open interest for options on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) rose above 600 contacts for the first time. Over the past year several institutional investors have expressed interest in the potential for a liquid MXEF options contract, particularly because the MXEF options contract is cash-settled and has a notional size that is about 24 times larger than options on the EEM ETF. VOLATILITY SKEW FOR MXEF OPTIONS The volatility skew chart below shows that Bloomberg has estimated[...]

  • Strategy | Trade Ideas | Feb 1, 2016, 9:51 AM

    Trading Tactics: How to Deal With a Slump

    Trading Tactics:  How to Deal With a Slump

    Self-realization is a good place to start in breaking a trading slump.  I know it seems obvious that when you're in a slump and trading poorly your results and account balance will reflect it.  Streaks work both ways of course, and when we are winning it is just as notable as when we are losing.  Understanding what is happening to you is awareness that may help you change some habits, which may also change your fortunes. When in a slump I will often take a break from trading, a 'timeout'. [...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jan 31, 2016, 4:48 AM

    Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 1/25 - 1/29

    Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 1/25 - 1/29

    The VIX term structure is approaching contango which many VIX watchers will consider a green light for the equity markets, but the February contract stubbornly remains elevated relative to the March contract.  Although on Friday this premium was down to 0.30.  My feeling is February may stay up a bit until we get the employment number behind us this coming Friday.  At that point I guess VIX will be just like the Fed (data dependent). The shorter term curve flattened out[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jan 30, 2016, 4:20 PM

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 1/25 - 1/29

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 1/25 - 1/29

    The equity market came to life last week and avoided what could have been the worst January in most of our lifetimes for stocks.  In response the four volatility indexes that are based on SPX option pricing were lower, but all four are also well above where they were to end 2015. I included a year-to-date performance column in this week’s table.  A big part of the motivation was to show the stellar performance of VXX and UVXY (along with the comparable funds) for 2016. [...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jan 29, 2016, 7:54 AM

    Earnings Next Week - 2/1 - 2/5

    Earnings Next Week - 2/1 - 2/5

    Earnings season peaked this past week, but there are plenty of companies left to report.  The numbers below represent three years of history with a couple of exceptions which have not been around long enough to provide a full three years of history.  In those cases the data appears in italics.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Jan 28, 2016, 7:29 PM

    Block Trade Analysis - Two VIX Trades from Today

    Block Trade Analysis - Two VIX Trades from Today

    We had two big trades come through the VIX pit today and about the only thing they have in common is that they both used March VIX options. First, there was an out of the money bull call spread.  With spot VIX around 22.60 there was a buyer of 80,000 VIX Mar 27 Calls at 1.95 who then sold 80,000 VIX Mar 35 Calls at 0.91 for a net cost of 1.04.  A spike to just over 28.00 gets this trade to the point of profitability.  This requires a closing high for 2016 in VIX since that current[...]

  • Paper by Professor Bondarenko Has Intriguing New Analysis of the Premiums, Returns and Volatility of PUT and WPUT Indexes

    Paper by Professor Bondarenko Has Intriguing New Analysis of the Premiums, Returns and Volatility of PUT and WPUT Indexes

    A new 10-page study examines both the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT) and the CBOE S&P 500 One-Week PutWrite Index (WPUT), comparing their performances with that of traditional benchmark stock and bond indexes. This is the first comprehensive published study that examines the performance of a benchmark strategy index that incorporates WeeklysSM options. Written by Oleg Bondarenko, professor of finance at the University of Illinois at Chicago, the study -- “An Analysis of Index Option[...]