Trader Talk Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Feb 28, 2016, 8:35 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 2/29 - 3/4

    Earnings Next Week - 2/29 - 3/4

    The numbers below represent three years of history with a couple of exceptions which have not been around long enough to provide a full three years of history.  In those cases the data appears in italics.   After the ticker the columns show the biggest gain, biggest drop, average move (non-directional) and stock price reaction last quarter.

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 27, 2016, 12:36 PM

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/22 - 2/26

    Weekend Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/22 - 2/26

    For the past few years I’ve struggled with things to write when there has been a parallel shift in the curve.  This week we got the first normal curve change of 2016 so there’s that to say.  Kevin Davitt, who is relatively new to The Options Institute keeps noting that the far end of the curve is as flat as he’s ever seen it.  I have to agree and when he inquire how I read things like that I noted that when the curve is flat it indicates a ton of uncertainty and these[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Strategy | Feb 27, 2016, 7:00 AM

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/22 - 2/26

    Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/22 - 2/26

    This was probably the calmest week we had in the markets in 2016, which is good for the long term investors, but makes my job sort of tough.  VIX put in a 2016 closing low but do note that VXST rose last week.  This past week didn’t really have a lot of the known unknowns such as major economic numbers so short term volatility was pretty tame.  Next week we get an employment number on Friday and I am attributing the rise in VXST to that event. The long funds continued to give[...]

  • Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/22 - 2/26

    Weekend Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 2/22 - 2/26

    Small caps played some catch up again last week with the Russell 2000 (RUT) gaining about 2.7% while the large cap oriented Russell 1000 (RUI) was up 1.75%.  There is still more work for RUT to do as it is underperforming RUI by about 3.6% in 2016. VIX made a new 2016 low last week while the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) did not.  This is surprising since small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks last week, but I’m learning that how RVX and VIX interrelate[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Feb 26, 2016, 4:20 PM

    February 26, 2016 Weekly Report on CBOE VIX Index Suite

    February 26, 2016 Weekly Report on CBOE VIX Index Suite

    Foreign Exchange Volatility Remains a Hot Spot The chance of divergence between monetary policies and the impact of oil prices and China factors on international trade continues to sustain volatility in foreign exchange VIX indexes: CBOE/CME FX Euro Volatility IndexSM (Ticker: EUVIX); CBOE/CME FX Yen Volatility IndexSM (Ticker: JYVIX)  and CBOE/CME FX British Pound Volatility IndexSM (Ticker: BPVIX). In contrast, this week the CBOE VIX Index stabilized as stock markets rallied[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Feb 23, 2016, 9:17 AM

    The Iceman Selleth

    The Iceman Selleth

    Sometimes it's worth letting something simmer on the stove a while to get impressive results, or in this case it's more like letting something ferment in earthenware pots buried in a forgotten location. But the feast five months later is worth the wait and the worry! Back in September I asked an offhand question of my fellow trader, @Option_Iceman, and received no offhand reply; I quickly forgot about the matter and didn't revisit it again until an answer emerged just a few days ago. The curiosity[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 21, 2016, 12:44 PM

    CBOE RMC - Five Things I'm Looking Forward to Next Week

    CBOE RMC - Five Things I'm Looking Forward to Next Week

    One the best parts of my job as Director of Education at The Options Institute is getting to attend each of the Risk Management Conferences offered by CBOE.  Back in the Fall the running theme at both the European and Asian versions of RMC seemed to be how the markets were shifting from a low to high volatility regime.  Early 2016 price action has confirmed this. There are five things that have me particularly excited about heading to Bonita Springs, FL next week for the 32nd Annual RMC[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 21, 2016, 11:39 AM

    Weekend Review Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/16 - 2/19

    Weekend Review Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/16 - 2/19

    VXST dropped dramatically last week and closed on the lows of 2016.  VIX managed to hold up a little better and looking at the economic calendar for next week I can kind of see why.  VXST often leads VIX so a move below 20.00 next week may not be out of the question.  After I typed that sentence I realized we are only 0.53 away from the teens so it wasn’t the most daring of market predictions. This is the year I am going to focus more on the disconnection in performance[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 20, 2016, 7:52 PM

    Weekly Review VIX Options and Futures 2/16 - 2/19

    Weekly Review VIX Options and Futures 2/16 - 2/19

    VIX managed to stay in the 20’s despite the most resilient performance from the S&P 500 in 2016.  We did finally give up on the last bastion of backwardation (month 1 versus month 2) as March became the front month with February going off the board Wednesday on the open. The generic short dated VIX curve constructed using Weeklys futures flattened and then some last week based on the drop in VIX and a fairly light economic calendar over the next couple of weeks. [...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Feb 20, 2016, 7:12 PM

    Weekly Review Russell 2000 Options and Volatility 2/16 - 2/19

    Weekly Review Russell 2000 Options and Volatility 2/16 - 2/19

    Small caps had a great holiday shortened week with the Russell 2000 (RUT) rising almost 4%.  RUT also played some catch up with the Russell 1000 (RUI) as the large cap benchmark was up a little less than 3%.  However, RUT has a long way to go to catch up with RUI for 2016.  However, there’s a lot of trading left to be done for 2016. The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) and VIX both dropped dramatically last week.  However, they dropped in line with each[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 17, 2016, 3:43 PM

    VIX Front Month - Second Month Backwardation Streak Ends at 30 - So Now What???

    VIX Front Month - Second Month Backwardation Streak Ends at 30 - So Now What???

    For the first time in 2016 the front month VIX future closed at a discount to the second month.  This brings the recent streak of backwardation to an end at 30 days.  The table below shows the 10 longest first month versus second month backwardation streaks with the recent run coming in a solid fourth place. So now what?  Anyone’s guess is as good as anyone else’s, but I did some quick historical analysis.  The table below shows the 30, 90, 125, and 250[...]

  • Is VIX Approaching a Death Cross?

    Is VIX Approaching a Death Cross?

    I began my week updating charts and tables as I am heading to Tampa, FL to speak on options and then I’m off to Trader’s Expo in New York to deliver a couple of presentations.  The chart below, depicting the rolling 1 year and 5 year average closing prices for VIX is a favorite of mine.  I consider it a good depiction of the equity market shifting from a low to high volatility regime as the 1 year average approaches the 5 year average.  However, I noticed today that the[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2016, 1:07 PM

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/8 - 2/12

    Weekly Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 2/8 - 2/12

    Three out of the four S&P 500 volatility oriented indexes were higher last week.  The shortest dated one, VXST, dropped a little.  We attribute this to the three day weekend impact that puts pressure on VXST, but also usually results in VXST rising the day after a holiday weekend.  For example on Friday VXST dropped 17% while VIX was down 9.74%.  I guess what I’m getting at here is that we should focus on the longer dated volatility indexes on the chart below to get[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | Feb 14, 2016, 7:30 AM

    Weekly Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/8 - 2/12

    Weekly Review - VIX Options and Futures - 2/8 - 2/12

    I had to double check the numbers when I looked at the closing curve this week as I had forgotten this was a holiday shortened week.  For those new to VIX, the calculation is based on calendar days and there is usually a small weekend impact which is exacerbated by three day weekends.  The futures anticipate this and don’t follow VIX to the downside.  In addition to the long weekend, there is a lack of big economic numbers or new scheduled for Tuesday which also may have had[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Feb 12, 2016, 6:42 PM

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility

    Weekly Review - Russell 2000 Options and Volatility

    The pain continues for the Russell 2000 (RUT) in 2016 on both and absolute and relative basis.  For the year RUT is down over 14% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) is only down about 9%.  The gap widened a bit this past week as RUI was down 1.00% and RUT lost 1.38%. Last year, when the market got into a real panic mode, VIX climbed to higher levels that the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX).  Despite the weakness in stocks this year RVX has maintained[...]