• Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 2, 2015, 7:59 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 6.2.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 6.2.15

    Greek creditors and government officials exchanging "final" offers, with markets weighing leaked details from both sides.  Will this finally be resolved?  Overseas markets mostly lower, 10-year yield up to 2.24%.  Richard Croft, R. N. Croft Financial, spoke at Option Education Day Forum in Vancouver last Saturday, saying Covered Write on stocks through August his choice, and buying calls due to low volatility when FED tightens (Sept.?) as earnings improve in Q3 & Q4.[...]

  • So Far VIX in 2015 Tells a Different Story Than 2014

    So Far VIX in 2015 Tells a Different Story Than 2014

    Over the weekend I was asked to take a look at the first five months of 2015 with respect to the volatility markets. Since volatility indexes need to be looked at in relation to recent history I decided to compare VIX in the first five months of 2015 to VIX last year. Before getting to that comparison, keep in mind the stock market action in early 2014 was very similar to that during the first five months of this year.   In 2014 the S&P 500 was up 4.07% while this year the S&P 500[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Jun 1, 2015, 1:55 PM

    Halfway To A Textbook Recession - Weekly Market Outlook

    Halfway To A Textbook Recession - Weekly Market Outlook

    After three straight weeks of bullish progress, the weight of those gains finally proved to be too much. The prod was a surprisingly weak revised reading on Q1's GDP growth. Rather than growing at a 0.2% clip as first thought, the second (of three) updates on the nation's overall economic activity rolled in at -0.7%. That was enough to send the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) down 0.63% on Friday, bringing the weekly loss to 0.87%. And yet, the market has yet to move past the point of no return and start[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Jun 1, 2015, 7:52 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 6.1.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 6.1.15

    Greece and China in the news as we roll into June trading.  Deal/no deal in Greece and mixed economic news reported in China have US futures up fractionally.  MSFT up $0.25 on Windows 10 launch date announcement.  Chicago traders happy about Hawks moving on to Stanley Cup finals. Volatility as an asset class The 'Majors' option implied volatilities is flat into OPEC meeting as WTI Crude Oil futures trade near $59 Exxon Mobil (XOM) June weekly option implied volatility of is at 17,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 31, 2015, 10:10 AM

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 5/26 - 5/29

    The Week in Russell 2000 Trading - 5/26 - 5/29

    Stocks were lower last week, but the small cap sector seemed to hold up a little better than large caps. The Russell 2000 (RUT) was down 0.45% while the Russell 1000 (RUI) was under a bit more pressure dropping 0.88%. RUT had lost the 2015 performance lead to the large cap focused RUI a few weeks ago, but took the lead back in late May. This performance margin widened last week and RUT is now up 3.47% for the year with the RUI up 2.82%. It is a lead, but definitely a slim margin which can change[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 30, 2015, 4:14 PM

    The Week in VIX - 5/26 - 5/29

    The Week in VIX - 5/26 - 5/29

    The S&P 500 drop, which can be mostly attributed to market action on Friday, resulted in VIX putting up a pretty bullish week. Everyone is aware that we had a short week last week and VIX traders know this can cause a little disorientation when looking at VIX relative to the futures pricing. The curve below shows that VIX was up over 14% last week while the respective futures were pretty quiet. VIX futures traders are aware that VIX is a bit depressed before long weekends and tends to rebound[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 30, 2015, 11:51 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/26 - 5/29

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/26 - 5/29

    Short term volatility rose last week based on stock market action and some impact from the holiday weekend. VXST’s 42% rise is partially attributed to the three day weekend being behind us and we can probably give a little credit to the day off Monday for the 14% rise in VIX. The issue that has nothing to do with the four day work week is the shape of the curve below which shows VXST is basically in line with VIX as of Friday's close. This is an indication that[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 29, 2015, 12:51 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.29.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.29.15

    Volatility as an asset class Altera (ALTR) is recently up $2.18 to $49.15 after The New York Post, CNBC's David Faber and the FT indicated the chip making giant Intel (INTC) has resumed talks about potentially acquiring the company. June weekly call option implied volatility is at 77, June is at 57, September is at 34; compared to 52-week range of 18 to 89. Splunk (SPLK) is recently down $4.69 to $66.36 on week Q1 earnings and outlook. June weekly call option implied volatility is at 35, June and[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 29, 2015, 7:40 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.29.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.29.15

    First Quarter GDP, first revision showed a  drop of 0.7%, slightly less than anticipated.  Futures shrugging it off, still slightly in the negative.  Volatility as an asset class: GameStop (GME) is up $2.23 to $43.25 in the premarket after the gaming retailer reported Q1 EPS of $0.68, $0.09 better than the analyst estimate of $0.59. Same store sales increase 8.6% driven by 10% growth in new software sales.  May weekly call option implied volatility is at 140, June is at 46, July[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 28, 2015, 2:04 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 6/1 - 6/5

    Earnings Next Week - 6/1 - 6/5

    We are probably hitting a lull in the earnings calendar next week with only seven stocks reporting. As always Max is the biggest gain in response to earnings, Min is the biggest drop, Abs Average is the average magnitude of the moves, and Last Q is what the stock did last quarter in response to earnings.  Finally, all numbers represent three years unless italicized which is this case is AMBA which has only 2 1/2 years of history to work with.

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 28, 2015, 12:07 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.28.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.28.15

    Volatility as an asset class Popeyes (PLKI) is recently down 56c to $57.48 after reporting better than expected Q1 EPS on less than expected revenue. June call option implied volatility is at 29, July is at 28, August is at 30; compared to its 52-week range of 23-47. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is recently up to $2.25 to $21.90 after reporting less than expected Q1 revenue and outlook and says SSS trend has continued to improve in May. June call option implied volatility is at 38, July is at 34,[...]

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 27, 2015, 7:54 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.27.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.27.15

    Continuing uncertainties about Greece debt payments due this weekend have overseas markets jittery.  US stock futures look to rebound after yesterdays 1%   correction.  US option volume of ~15m contracts pretty average yesterday, with SPX trading 900K contracts and VIX 360K.  10-year near 2.15%.  What? Corruption at FIFA?  I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!  BlackHawks with elimination game tonight or their season shockingly over.  Volatility as an asset[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 26, 2015, 12:45 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.26.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.26.15

    Volatility as an asset class Time Warner Cable (TWC) and Charter (CHTR) volatility decreases on Charter purchasing Time Warner Cable for $55B Time Warner Cable (TWC) is recently up $7.78 to $178.96 on Charter (CHTR) agreeing to purchase for $195.71 a share, with $100 in cash and the remainder in its own stock. June volatility is at 17, compared to level of 30 from last week and its 52-week range of 12–44. Charter (CHTR) is recently down 30c to $175.04. June volatility is at 23, compared[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 26, 2015, 9:45 AM

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    Bullish Levels Getting Entrenched - Weekly Market Outlook

    It wasn't a pretty or a convincing bullish move, but stocks did make forward progress last week, putting some distance between them and a huge hurdle that had otherwise been holding it back since February. Still, no later than it cleared that ceiling another possible one developed. We'll take a closer look at this new market situation, right after we review last week's and this week's economic numbers. Economic Data It may not have been a terribly busy week last week on the economic front, but it[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 26, 2015, 8:06 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.26.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.26.15

    Trains fairly empty this morning as traders return to a holiday shortened week.  April Durable Goods with a 0.5% drop (off 0.4% expected), after March revised higher.  Several housing reports and Consumer Confidence numbers later this morning. Nothing resolved in Greece over the weekend, European markets still jittery.  ~11.5K VIX Futures trade during early session.  10-year under 2.2%, Thrilling (not good) end to BlackHawks overtime loss last night.  Volatility an asset[...]