Weekly Review - VIX Futures and Options - 12/14 - 12/18

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 13, 2015, 7:45 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.13.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.13.15

    April Retail Sales unchanged (+0.2% to +0.3% expected). X-Auto's +0.1%, Control Group flat.  march revised higher by two ticks, but Sales on weak side.  Europe calm this morning, US futures to positive side.  10-year yield drops near 2.2%.  Du Pont (DD) appears to have won proxy fight, is off $2 before opening.  Volatility as an asset class Pall Corp (PLL) is up $5.78 to $124.40 in the premarket on acquiring Danaher (DHR) for $13.8B including assumed debt. May call option[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | Trader Talk | Futures | May 12, 2015, 1:15 PM

    Market Tells Are More Useful Than Predictions or Comments

    Market Tells Are More Useful Than Predictions or Comments

    There was a slew of talk and predictions over the last few days that were to serve warning over equity market players, but what transpired as another up week with another very strong day on a Friday, the second consecutive big gain to end a week.  On Thursday we heard some 'off the cuff' comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, her thought that equity valuations were 'quite high', yet we know that condition is rather arbitrary.  Maybe she commented with a 'wink' to the markets.  The valuation[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 12, 2015, 9:22 AM

    More Color on the Big $VIX Trade

    More Color on the Big $VIX Trade

    I get to CBOE each morning about 7:15 and by 7:16 I was running around the floor trying to find out a little more about the VIX roll from yesterday. First, I’ll start at the beginning. It appears this all began back on April 10th when the trade that got rolled forward yesterday was opened. Back in April about 180,000 VIX Jun 17 Calls were purchased for 1.74 and about 360,000 VIX Jun 23 Calls were sold at 0.82. I keep using ‘about’ as a hedge clause because the actual trade[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 12, 2015, 7:59 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.12.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.12.15

    The weakest Japanese bond auction in over six years, Greece staying solvent by delivering all cash reserves to the IMF, and profit taking are weighing heavily on US stock futures this morning.  European shares off ~1.5%, 10-year at 2.3%. Volatility as an asset class AOL (AOL) is up $7.75 to $50.34 in the premarket on Verizon (VZ) acquiring for $50 per share or $4.4B. May call option implied volatility is at 37, June is at 32; compared to its 90-day average of 30. IShares Barclay 20+ YR Treasury[...]

  • Market News | Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | May 11, 2015, 4:00 PM

    Will The Nasdaq & Russell 2k Drag The SPX Back Down? - Weekly Market Outlook

    Will The Nasdaq & Russell 2k Drag The SPX Back Down? - Weekly Market Outlook

    You have to give credit to the bulls - they're not going down without a fight. In fact, last week's market rebound right from the brink of disaster was another impressive comeback. On the other hand, as impressive as Friday's bounce was, stocks still aren't over the big hurdle that's been holding them back since February.  Will this be the time we break through past the recent choppiness and trend higher? We'll draw that line in the sand after recapping last week's big economic news[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 11, 2015, 12:06 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.11.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.11.15

    Volatility as an asset class Apple (AAPL) is recently down $1.10 to $126.48. May weekly call option implied volatility is at 25, June is at 23; compared to its 26-week average of 26. VIX methodology for Apple (VXAPL) up 2.5% to 25.45. cboe.com/VXAPL Etsy (ETSY) is recently down $2.03 to $20.60 after the online marketplace was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Wedbush. May call option implied volatility is at 74, June is at 64, September is at 54; compared to its 10-day average of 60. Monster[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 11, 2015, 7:55 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.11.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.11.15

    US shares flat as we approach the opening of trading. Noble Energy offers ~$26.70 in stock for Rose (up $6 to $25.30, 52-week high above $55).  Eurogroup meets today on Greece debt problem, Greece signaling pessimism.  China cut rates again, Chinese stocks rally, picking up half of last weeks losses.  US and overseas economic data doesn't start until Wednesday. VIX Futures quiet in early session, after trading ~228K Friday. Volatility as an asset class: iShares FTSE Xinhua China 25[...]

  • The Week for Russell 2000 Trading - 5/4 - 5/8

    The Week for Russell 2000 Trading - 5/4 - 5/8

    Small cap stocks played a little catch up last week with the Russell 2000 rising 0.55% while the Russell 1000 gained 0.35%.   Like all broad based market indexes in the US last, the positive performance came from the market’s reaction to Friday’s employment report. Large cap stocks actually ruled the day on Friday with the benchmark Russell 1000 gaining 1.2% while the Russell 2000 rose by about 0.75%. For a perspective on the relative performance of large and small cap stocks[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 10, 2015, 12:00 PM

    The Week in VIX - 5/4 - 5/8

    The Week in VIX - 5/4 - 5/8

    VIX was slightly higher and the futures were mostly lower with a couple of exceptions last week. There was a bit of excitement in the middle of the week so I included an extra piece to the graph below and decided to show Wednesday’s highs for VIX and the futures market.  If I had not done that it would be pretty difficult to see there are two different lines showing VIX closing levels on the 1st and the 8th. We all know that Friday was the employment number with the stock market rallying[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | May 10, 2015, 9:36 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/4 - 5/8

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/4 - 5/8

    Despite a dip midweek, the S&P 500 recovered to put up a winning week on the heels of the non-farm payrolls report. Friday’s 28 point rally salvaged weekly performance, but this was not enough to push VIX to a week over week loss.  Since January 1990 there have been 178 weeks where the S&P 500 and VIX were both higher. I ran some quick numbers and of those 178 weeks, the S&P 500 was higher the 102 times and lower the other 76 weeks after both moved higher in sync. I was a little[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 8, 2015, 11:56 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.8.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.8.15

    Volatility as an asset class Monster Beverage (MNST) is recently down $12.23 to $131.20 on less than expected Q1 results and guidance. May call option implied volatility is at 29, June is at 31, September is at 32; compared to its 52-week average of 39. CBS (CBS) is recently down $1.31 to $59.91 after reporting Q1 EPS 78c, consensus 75c.  May call option implied volatility is at 24, June is at 27, September is at 26; compared to its 26-week average of 28. IShares Barclay 20+ YR Treasury ETF[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 8, 2015, 8:45 AM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/11 - 5/14

    Earnings Next Week - 5/11 - 5/14

    Things start to lighten up a bit as far as earnings season goes next week, but there are still 19 stocks with short dated options available for trading the report next week. As always Max is the biggest gain in response to earnings, Min is the biggest drop, Abs Average is the average magnitude of the moves, and Last Q is what the stock did last quarter in response to earnings.  Finally, all numbers represent three years unless italicized.

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 8, 2015, 7:58 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.8.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.8.15

    April Non-Farm Payrolls showed a gain of 223K jobs, (226K expected),  jobless rate fell to 5.4%, not a surprise.  March Jobs revised lower by 39K to a gain of only 85K.  Participation rate up one tick.  Stock futures rally, as slowing economy should prevent early rate hikes.  FTSE up 2% on election results (Conservatives win big), other overseas markets also higher.  Options Institute and BofA Merrill welcomed 35 officers from 30 different countries attending US Naval[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 7, 2015, 12:17 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.7.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.7.15

    Volatility as an asset class Alibaba (BABA) is recently up $5.57 to $85.59 after reporting quarterly results and new CEO.  May call option implied volatility is at 31, June is at 27, July is at 26; compared to its 26-week average of 34. Priceline.com (PCLN) is recently down $42.15 to $1,222.07 on below consensus Q2 outlook on currency and growth conservatism. May call option implied volatility is at 24, June is at 23, July is at 22; compared to its 26-week average of 32. TripAdvisor (TRIP) is[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 7, 2015, 8:07 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.7.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.7.15

    Stock valuations are "generally quite high".  In a redux of "irrational exuberance", Chairperson Yellon stopped yesterday's market bounce, giving investors and traders an excuse for profit taking.  Earnings take charge again this morning, including BABA up $8, PCLN off $40 as both beat street estimates.  Asian shares lower, Europe mixed to lower. 18K VIX Futures in early session after 215K trade yesterday.  UK election today, early results before US close.[...]