Trader Talk Archives - Cboe Blogs

  • Trader Talk | Strategy | May 1, 2015, 1:40 PM

    BigTrends.com 2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping & Analysis

    BigTrends.com 2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping & Analysis

    (Editors Note:  For the last few years, Price Headley, a Louisville native and CEO of Bigtrends.com, has been kind enough to share his thoughts on the running of the annual Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs.  Saturday's Derby will be the 141st .  He takes a theoretical $100 and tells how he would invest it (bet might be a better word).  His very able cohort, Moby Waller, gives his outlook for the race as well, and Moby uses a few different factors in his analysis.  Click[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 1, 2015, 12:21 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.1.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.1.15

    Volatility as an asset class FireEye (FEYE) is recently up $3.03 to $44.34 after the information security firm reported a lower than expected Q1 operating loss and provided better than expected guidance. May call option implied volatility is at 41, June is at 40; compared to its 26-week average of 59. First Solar (FSLR) is recently down $2.59 to $57.12 after reporting weaker than expected Q1 results but provided higher than expected Q2 EPS guidance. May call option implied volatility is at 34, June[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 1, 2015, 10:08 AM

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

    Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn't convincingly push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold. Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have "wiggles" curling upwards after Thursday's big down day, but they remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 1, 2015, 8:13 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.1.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.1.15

    US Futures higher before the opening, gaining back some of yesterday's GDP inspired profit-taking.  May Day in most of Europe and parts of the rest of the world should slow volume today.  ISM & U of Michigan are the reports to watch this morning, with March Construction Spending with an AM release as well. S aturday a sports-lovers dream day, with soccer, NFL Draft, Kentucky Derby and Pacquiao fight, as well as some baseball, NBA & NHL playoffs.  Thousands of football fans[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 30, 2015, 11:49 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.30.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.30.15

    Volatility as an asset class TASER (TASR) is recently up $2.60 to $30.71 on better than expected Q1 results, primarily driven by increased TASER X26P and TASER X2 Smart Weapon sales. May call option implied volatility is at 45, June is at 41, September is at 43; compared to its 26-week average of 53. WWE (WWE) is recently down 55c to $13.81 after the entertainment company reported Q1 EPS 13c, compared to consensus 2c.  May call option implied volatility is at 41, June is at 40, July is at 37;[...]

  • Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 30, 2015, 11:32 AM

    Earnings Next Week (Part 1) - 5/4 - 5/5

    Earnings Next Week (Part 1) - 5/4 - 5/5

    Time caught up with me and I was only able to knock out Monday and Tuesday earnings numbers for the week of May 4th to May 8th.  I'll get the balance of the week done when I return from finals week in my PhD program. As always Max is the biggest gain in response to earnings, Min is the biggest drop, Abs Average is the average magnitude of the moves, and Last Q is what the stock did last quarter in response to earnings.  Finally, all numbers represent three years unless italicized.   [...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 29, 2015, 11:57 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.29.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.29.15

    Volatility as an asset class MasterCard (MA) is recently up 62c to $90.86 on better than expected Q2 profit but warns of currency headwinds.  May weekly call option implied volatility is at 29, May is at 22, June is at 19, October is at 20; compared to its 26-week average of 23. Starwood (HOT) is recently up $6.15 to $86.99 after announcing its exploring strategic and financial alternatives. May call option implied volatility is at 27, June is at 24, August is at 25; compared to its 26-week[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 29, 2015, 7:50 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.29.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.29.15

    Q1 GDP showed a fractional gain of 0.2%, off from Q4 2014 2.2% gain and consensus estimate of 1.1% growth.  Weather, Dollar, dock strike - bulls coming forward with multiple excuses.  This on day FED will speak after noon.  Asian shares lower, Europe off as well (DAX down 1.3%). Oil off, Gold higher.  TWTR  with premature release of earnings off 2%.  LL says Justice Dept looking into its wood products, lower by 16%,  Sloppy opening. Volatility as an asset class: GoPro[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Futures | Apr 28, 2015, 1:07 PM

    A Brief History of SPX and VIX Reactions to Advanced GDP

    A Brief History of SPX and VIX Reactions to Advanced GDP

    This morning while conducting a webcast about VIX and extended hours trading I was asked a good question.  This means I didn't know the answer. Tomorrow at 7:30 Chicago time the first iteration of the 2015 First Quarter GDP number will be reported. This will be the first time this number has been released since CBOE began offering extended hours trading for VIX and SPX index options. While talking about this I was asked, “What does VIX usually do in reaction to the Advanced GDP release?”[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 28, 2015, 11:41 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.28.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.28.15

    Volatility as an asset class Merck (MRK) is recently up $2.90 to $60 on better than expected Q1 results and outlook. May call option implied volatility is at 18, June, July and October is at 17; compared to its 26-week average of 19. Bristol-Myers (BMY) is recently down to $64.35 on better than expected Q1 results and outlook. May call option implied volatility is at 23, June is 23, September is at 21; compared to its 26-week average of 22. UPS (UPS) is recently up $3.44 to $100.86 on better than[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 28, 2015, 7:58 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.28.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.28.15

    Earnings in full swing this morning, led by Big Pharma's.  PFE beat but guided lower, while MRK and BMY were up slightly in the pre-market.  European shares getting whacked (lower by more than 1%) and UK economy slowing at a bad time - two weeks before an election.  Case-Shiller reports Home Prices rising, as expected.  FED Minutes tomorrow. Volatility as an asset class: Apple (AAPL) is up $1.35 to $131.63 in the preopen on Q2 revenue growth grew at a run-rate of 33% ex-currency[...]

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 27, 2015, 7:48 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.27.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.27.15

    Traders watching events overseas this morning.  China is hinting at QE, while Japan is lowered one notch by a ratings agency.  Apple earnings after the close, Q1 GDP before the opening Wednesday and FOM Minutes Wed PM.  GDP forecast has been retreating as weather and California dock strike blamed, consensus down to ~1.1%. AMAT ( -$1.50 ) merger off, AXP & TWTR downgraded before the bell, both off fractionally, DB off 4% on restructuring.  40 degrees this morning in Chicago,[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Apr 25, 2015, 2:55 PM

    The Week in VIX - 4/20 - 4/24

    The Week in VIX - 4/20 - 4/24

    VIX finished the week at 12.29 which is the lowest close since early December. Despite the S&P 500 making a new all-time high to finish the week, the May VIX futures settled at 14.625, a decent premium relative to VIX. We saw this last month until the Non-Farm Payrolls release. After the number the premium came in pretty quickly. We have to wait to see if the pattern repeats as the number does not come out until Friday May 8th. One of the most dynamic VIX spread trades is a risk reversal in[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Apr 25, 2015, 10:26 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/20 - 4/24

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/20 - 4/24

    The S&P 500 managed to reach a record high for the sixth time this year, but all the applause from bulls last week was for the Nasdaq-100 which made an all-time high for the first time in 15 years. All hail tech! All four volatility indexes that are based off S&P 500 option pricing moved lower last week and three of the four are below the 2014 average. Only VXMT, the 6 month version of VIX, remains elevated relative to the 2014 average. I guess bears may be throwing in the towel for the summer[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Apr 24, 2015, 3:19 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 4/24/2015

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 4/24/2015

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast and online and social media outlets. New Products at CBOE Options on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EM) and the MSCI EAFE Index (EAFE) made their trading debut on CBOE this week.  Andy Lowenthal, Vice President of Business Development at CBOE, discusses these products, and other initiatives, with CT Financial News. “Interview: CBOE Exec Talks[...]