• Market News | Trader Talk | Futures | Trade Ideas | May 10, 2015, 12:00 PM

    The Week in VIX - 5/4 - 5/8

    The Week in VIX - 5/4 - 5/8

    VIX was slightly higher and the futures were mostly lower with a couple of exceptions last week. There was a bit of excitement in the middle of the week so I included an extra piece to the graph below and decided to show Wednesday’s highs for VIX and the futures market.  If I had not done that it would be pretty difficult to see there are two different lines showing VIX closing levels on the 1st and the 8th. We all know that Friday was the employment number with the stock market rallying[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | May 10, 2015, 9:36 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/4 - 5/8

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/4 - 5/8

    Despite a dip midweek, the S&P 500 recovered to put up a winning week on the heels of the non-farm payrolls report. Friday’s 28 point rally salvaged weekly performance, but this was not enough to push VIX to a week over week loss.  Since January 1990 there have been 178 weeks where the S&P 500 and VIX were both higher. I ran some quick numbers and of those 178 weeks, the S&P 500 was higher the 102 times and lower the other 76 weeks after both moved higher in sync. I was a little[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 8, 2015, 11:56 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.8.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.8.15

    Volatility as an asset class Monster Beverage (MNST) is recently down $12.23 to $131.20 on less than expected Q1 results and guidance. May call option implied volatility is at 29, June is at 31, September is at 32; compared to its 52-week average of 39. CBS (CBS) is recently down $1.31 to $59.91 after reporting Q1 EPS 78c, consensus 75c.  May call option implied volatility is at 24, June is at 27, September is at 26; compared to its 26-week average of 28. IShares Barclay 20+ YR Treasury ETF[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | May 8, 2015, 8:45 AM

    Earnings Next Week - 5/11 - 5/14

    Earnings Next Week - 5/11 - 5/14

    Things start to lighten up a bit as far as earnings season goes next week, but there are still 19 stocks with short dated options available for trading the report next week. As always Max is the biggest gain in response to earnings, Min is the biggest drop, Abs Average is the average magnitude of the moves, and Last Q is what the stock did last quarter in response to earnings.  Finally, all numbers represent three years unless italicized.

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 8, 2015, 7:58 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.8.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.8.15

    April Non-Farm Payrolls showed a gain of 223K jobs, (226K expected),  jobless rate fell to 5.4%, not a surprise.  March Jobs revised lower by 39K to a gain of only 85K.  Participation rate up one tick.  Stock futures rally, as slowing economy should prevent early rate hikes.  FTSE up 2% on election results (Conservatives win big), other overseas markets also higher.  Options Institute and BofA Merrill welcomed 35 officers from 30 different countries attending US Naval[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 7, 2015, 12:17 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.7.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.7.15

    Volatility as an asset class Alibaba (BABA) is recently up $5.57 to $85.59 after reporting quarterly results and new CEO.  May call option implied volatility is at 31, June is at 27, July is at 26; compared to its 26-week average of 34. Priceline.com (PCLN) is recently down $42.15 to $1,222.07 on below consensus Q2 outlook on currency and growth conservatism. May call option implied volatility is at 24, June is at 23, July is at 22; compared to its 26-week average of 32. TripAdvisor (TRIP) is[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 7, 2015, 8:07 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.7.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.7.15

    Stock valuations are "generally quite high".  In a redux of "irrational exuberance", Chairperson Yellon stopped yesterday's market bounce, giving investors and traders an excuse for profit taking.  Earnings take charge again this morning, including BABA up $8, PCLN off $40 as both beat street estimates.  Asian shares lower, Europe mixed to lower. 18K VIX Futures in early session after 215K trade yesterday.  UK election today, early results before US close.[...]

  • Trader Talk | Education | Strategy | May 6, 2015, 2:50 PM

    How to Find Stocks for Iron Condors?

    How to Find Stocks for Iron Condors?

    I am often asked how I find stock in which to enter into the Iron Condor strategy.  Not every strategy works with every stock in every kind of market, but I have a set of guidelines or criteria I use when looking for those stocks. #1  use stocks you would buy 100 shares of in your retirement account #2  use very liquid stocks near $100 or higher:   Examples would be AAPL, NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL, PNRA, XOM, DIS, IBM, TSLA, LNKD, PCLN, etc. #3  If I did 4 stock Iron Condors[...]

  • Trader Talk | Education | Strategy | May 6, 2015, 1:40 PM

    Why I Will NOT Buy or Sell that First Big Move

    Why I Will NOT Buy or Sell that First Big Move

    In the game of trading there is always a rush to be the first one in or out, state it in real time and then wait to take a victory lap.  It's great fun and an ego stroke to be able to 'call that shot', whether it's a bottom or top.   Yet, these decisions are often impulsive and without much thought.  When a stock plunges for whatever reason it may seem appropriate to stick your hand in and take a slice or even a big chunk, without ever understanding the technical damage that could[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 6, 2015, 12:18 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.6.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.6.15

    Volatility as an asset class Fossil (FOSL) is recently down $8.40 to $78.10 on less than expected guidance. May call option implied volatility is at 33, June is at 23; compared to its 52-week average of 51. Weight Watchers (WTW) is off $0.87 to $7.32 after reporting a less than expected Q1 revenue of $322.1M, compared to consensus $324.36M.  May call option implied volatility is at 107, June is at 92, July is at 81, October is at 96; compared to its 26-week average of 43. Proshares UltraShort[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 5, 2015, 11:51 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.5.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.5.15

    Volatility as an asset class Disney (DIS) is recently up $1.16 to $112.19 after reporting better than expected Q2 adjusted EPS $1.23, compared to consensus $1.11. May call option implied volatility is at 19, June is at 18, January is at 20; compared to its 52-week average of 23. Estee Lauder (EL) is recently up $4.95 to $88.30 on Q3 adjusted EPS 72c, compared to consensus 51c. May call option implied volatility is at 19, June 18, July is at 19; compared to its 26-week average of 21. Proshares UltraShort[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 5, 2015, 7:58 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.5.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 5.5.15

    Disney beat on the top & bottom line, pushing stock futures to a slight gain.   But the March Trade deficit with the worst number in 6 1/2 years, dragged futures lower.  Economists that blamed the West Coast port strike on the preliminary Q1 GDP number, now have the surge in goods being processed to blame for the deficit.  Revised GDP will be an interesting number to watch.  Earnings other than DIS a mixed bag this morning.  Shanghai off 4% overnight, Australia is[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 4, 2015, 2:00 PM

    Earnings This Week (Part 2) - 5/6 - 5/8

    Earnings This Week (Part 2) - 5/6 - 5/8

    Time caught up with me and I was only able to knock out Monday and Tuesday earnings numbers for the week of May 4th to May 8th before this week.  As promised I knocked out the  balance of the week today. As always Max is the biggest gain in response to earnings, Min is the biggest drop, Abs Average is the average magnitude of the moves, and Last Q is what the stock did last quarter in response to earnings.  Finally, all numbers represent three years unless italicized.

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | May 4, 2015, 12:38 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.4.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 5.4.15

    Volatility as an asset class Cablevision (CVC) is recently up 5c to $20.33 after reporting Q1 EPS 20c, compared to consensus 17c.  May call option implied volatility is at 40, June is at 29, September is at 32; compared to its 26-week average of 27. MGM Resorts (MGM) is recently down 40c to $21 after reporting better than expected Q1 EPS 33c, compared to consensus 14c. May call option implied volatility is at 39, June is at 36, September is at 34; compared to its 26-week average of 36. CBOE[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | May 4, 2015, 11:15 AM

    Still In No Man's Land - Weekly Market Outlook 5.4.15

    Still In No Man's Land - Weekly Market Outlook 5.4.15

    Despite the strong bullish effort on Friday, stock's booked a loss for the past week. On the other hand, the market finished the week on a bullish foot, which broadly suggests we'll hit the ground running in an upward direction this week. (It doesn't hurt the bullish case that the longer-term trend is still technically intact.)  We'll weigh the odds below, after looking at last week's big economic news and previewing some of this week's economic data. Economic Data While we got a large number[...]