Trader Talk Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 25, 2015, 8:02 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning update 3.25.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning update 3.25.15

    Chicago (Northfield) based Kraft joins Warren Buffett's conglomerate, see below.  "Synergies" = possible layoffs, we'll see.  February Durables drop 1.4%, +0.2% expected.  Most of the components looked awful.  January Durable Goods revised sharply lower. Relationship to positive Housing Starts yesterday and revised Q1 GDP will be discussed on trading desks today.  10-year 1.86%.  Volatility as an asset class Kraft Foods (KRFT) is up $18.60 to $80 in the preopen[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 24, 2015, 8:05 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.24.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.24.15

    Stocks look flat on the opening, as CPI and Core Rate each rise 0.2%.  McCormick (MKC) beat estimates, looks to open higher by 4%. NFLX could help NASDAQ.  Overseas markets modestly higher.  10-year 1.904. Housing numbers released after the opening, expected higher. Volatility as an asset class: Chesapeake (CHK) is up $0.44 to $14.55 in the preopen on Carl Icahn disclosing an increased stake in the company to 73M shares (10.98%), up from 66M shares (9.98%) in December. March weekly[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Mar 23, 2015, 5:27 PM

    Earnings This Week - 3/23 - 3/27

    Earnings This Week - 3/23 - 3/27

    A more appropriate title for this blog would be "Earnings Later This Week" as there are only four stocks with short dated options reporting earnings this week and they all report either Thursday or Friday.    The list below depicts three years of earnings history with the biggest move higher, lower, average move, and what the stock did last quarter shown for each stock.

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Mar 23, 2015, 2:10 PM

    The Fed Gives A Boost - Weekly Market Outlook

    The Fed Gives A Boost - Weekly Market Outlook

    Thanks to a little help from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the market broke out of a three-week-old bearish rut, and in the process may have rekindled a bigger uptrend.  In fact, technically speaking, the uptrend is back underway. We'll handicap the market below.  First, let's run down last week's and this week's economic news. Economic Data There's little doubt as to last week's economic focal point... the release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. It was an interesting[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 23, 2015, 11:58 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.23.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.23.15

    Volatility as an asset class Pfizer (PFE) is recently up 95c to $35.22, fresh ten year high, after a Jefferies analyst wrote that the company's shares are poised to rise significantly over the next one to two years.  Overall option implied volatility of 16 compares to its 26-week average of 17. NVIDIA (NVDA) is recently down 65c to $22.02 on Goldman’s downgrade to Sell with a $20 price target. The firm believes the market under-appreciates the risk of the Intel (INTC) license not being[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 23, 2015, 7:55 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.23.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.23.15

    Stocks bouncing around unchanged this morning, as 3" of snow greet Chicago commuters.  Oil prices down again, but be aware that front month crude changes months today.  Biogen downgraded before opening. NCAA tourney gets high marks for exciting games this past weekend. Volatility as an asset class: Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK) closed at $10.75 into meeting between the leaders of Greece and Germany to resolve debt issues. Overall option implied volatility of 68 compares to its[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Mar 22, 2015, 4:29 PM

    The Week in Small Cap Stocks - 3/16 - 3/20

    The Week in Small Cap Stocks - 3/16 - 3/20

    Small cap stocks widened the lead against large cap stocks for 2015 as the Russell 2000 was up 2.78% while the Russell 1000 advanced by 1.95% last week. That places the Russell 2000 up 5.12% while the Russell 1000 is now up 2.96% for 2015. The volatility markets diverged a bit from the small cap outperforming large cap stocks as the large cap focused VIX lost 18.63% while the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) was down 16.48% for the week. Despite this the RVX / VIX spread remains a low levels[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Mar 22, 2015, 8:56 AM

    The Week in VIX - 3/16 - 3/20

    The Week in VIX - 3/16 - 3/20

    Last week VIX experienced the second biggest week over week percentage drop for 2015. The largest move lower occurred the week before the three day Martin Luther King holiday weekend so that one may need to be given an asterisk.   However, VIX going back to the tweens last week should not be ignored as an indication of a new round of equity market complacency sinks in. Someone needs to tell that to the April VIX futures which remain at a pretty high premium (over 3 points) relative to the[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Mar 21, 2015, 2:48 PM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/16 - 3/20

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/16 - 3/20

    I’m repeating the alteration I did last week to the term structure chart below. Instead of a week over week comparison I show the closing levels for VXST, VIX, VXV, and VXMT relative to the average levels in 2014. Note that near term volatility has thrown in the towel, but concern about a potential downturn for the equity market persists in the three and six month time frames.  Longer dated volatility is still elevated, despite dropping last week in sync with VXST and VIX. A 2.66% rally[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Mar 20, 2015, 3:50 PM

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 3/20/2015

    The Weekly Options News Roundup – 3/20/2015

    The Weekly News Roundup is your weekly recap of CBOE features, options industry news and VIX and volatility-related articles from print, broadcast and online and social media outlets. Gail Osten: A Life and Legacy It is with deepest regret that we share the passing of our friend and colleague, Gail Osten.  Gail was Director of Corporate Communications at CBOE the past seven years.  Her time at CBOE capped off a distinguished career in the exchange industry as described in the attached lead[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 20, 2015, 12:00 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.20.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.20.15

    Volatility as an asset class KB Home (KBH) is recently up 99c to $15.06 on better than expected Q1 results and sees sequential margin improvement in remaining 2015 quarters. April call option implied volatility is at 96, April is at 43, July is at 37; compared to its 26-week average of 35. Starbucks (SBUX) is recently up 43c to $98.17 after shares traded at fresh life high of $98.90. March weekly call option implied volatility is at 19, April is at 24, May is at 20, July is at 19; compared to its[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Mar 20, 2015, 8:04 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.20.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.20.15

    Happy Triple Witch Friday.   Spring officially arrives right after the close today.  European debt talks have some optimistic, DAX up 1%.  Commodities flat, DRI up $2.50 on good Quarter.  For those following the NCAA tournament, Matt Moran from CBOE will post his "Volatility Bracketology" here at the CBOE Hub later this morning, it's a good one.  For those entering picks in an office pool, we heard that less than 0.1% of entrants had the first eight games picked[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 19, 2015, 12:50 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.19.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.19.15

    Fairly heave option volume mid-day as traders and investors digest removal of "patient" from FED comments, which was expected. SPX traded ~700K contracts, while VIX with 200K and VIX Futures 71K.  Sounds of basketballs bouncing reverberate around trading floors and desks across the US.  GS down $2, PCLN lower by $6.  Volatility as an asset class:  (We'll miss you Gail Osten - Those we held in our arms for a little while, we hold in our hearts forever). Facebook (FB)[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Mar 19, 2015, 11:32 AM

    Block Trade Analysis - Emerging Market Bull Put Spread

    Block Trade Analysis - Emerging Market Bull Put Spread

    Early yesterday, long before Janet Yellen shared her insights with the world, there was a block trade I came across with a bullish outlook for Emerging Markets. About 5 minutes after the opening bell rang there was a large seller of the EEM Apr 17th 39 Puts at 0.79 who purchased a similar number of EEM Apr 17th 37 Puts at 0.26 for a net credit of 0.51. At the time of the trade EEM was trading around 39.10, but moved higher in sync with the equity market rally that occurred after the FOMC announcement[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 19, 2015, 8:00 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.19.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 3.19.15

    AAPL goes into the DJIA at today's opening.  Oil off over 3% in early trade, Kuwait comments about production levels keeping steady, even as demand lags.  Dollar higher vs. Euro.  Weekly Claims in line, Stocks expected to give back some of yesterday's gains.  EBAY downgraded preopen.  10-year 1.93%.  Get your NCAA brackets completed,  games begin in 2 hours.  Volatility as an asset class: Silver Wheaton (SLW) is down 1c to $19 in the premarket after reporting[...]