• VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 13, 2015, 12:00 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.13.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.13.15

    Volatility as an asset class JP Morgan (JPM) is recently up 43c to $62.13 into the expected release of Q1 results on April 14.  April call option implied volatility is at 29, May is at 18, June and September is at 17; compared to its 26-week average of 20. Wells Fargo (WFC) is recently up 28c to $54.60 in the expected release of Q1 results on April 14. April call option implied volatility is at 27, May is at 17, June is at 15; compared to its 26-week average of 17. IShares Barclay 20+ YR Treasury[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Futures | Apr 12, 2015, 9:13 AM

    The Week in VIX - 4/6 - 4/10

    The Week in VIX - 4/6 - 4/10

    The S&P 500 put up a nice week and VIX came under pressure closing Friday at the low for 2015. Take it how you want, either that there is nothing to worry about for the markets or there is too much complacency and we are ‘doomed’ (my favorite Charlie Brown word) to experience a pullback in 2015. Either way, if you are concerned about a market correction this year, there appears to be a sale on SPX options. VIX option volume was well over 1,000,000 contracts with one big trade attributing[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Apr 11, 2015, 10:14 AM

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/6 - 4/10

    The Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/6 - 4/10

    Last week the S&P 500 was strong and volatility indexes were weak. I have been focusing on where the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT term structure curve has been in 2015 compared to the averages last year. For the first time in a while VXV dipped below the 2014 average with only 6 month SPX implied volatility still higher than the 2014 average so there may still be a little long term concern about the equity markets looming. Over the near term VXST under 10 and VIX back to the tweens[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Apr 10, 2015, 9:15 AM

    Block Trade Analysis - TWTR from 4/9/2015

    Block Trade Analysis - TWTR from 4/9/2015

    Earlier this week I was asked about option volume in shares of Twitter (TWTR) so the stock is sort of on my radar screen these days. Looking over block trading data from yesterday I came across the following trades that were done in two blocks of 15,000 late Thursday – Sell 30,000 TWTR Apr 17th 47 Puts at 0.05 Buy 30,000 TWTR Apr 17th 47 Calls at 5.10 Buy 30,000 TWTR May 15th 47 Puts at 1.48 Sell 30,000 TWTR May 15th 47 Calls at 6.55 Net Credit = 0.02 Since there are some TWTR rumors flying[...]

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 10, 2015, 8:10 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.10.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.10.15

    Chicago traders had winds in excess of 90 mph visit the area last night. Apple watch release today viewed with great interest, still unsure of customer acceptance and full capabilities.  GE selling GE Capital, using ~$50B proceeds to acquire stock.  One of the largest buy-backs ever, and will help the DJIA this morning.  USD up, European shares higher as well.  Here's hoping any presidential candidate announcements don't cut into Masters coverage on Sunday. Volatility as an asset[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Apr 8, 2015, 4:08 PM

    Earnings Next Week - 4/13 - 4/17

    Earnings Next Week - 4/13 - 4/17

    Things start to get a bit busier with about 20 companies with short dated options reporting earnings.  Three years of price reaction history is in the table below -  

  • Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 8, 2015, 8:05 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.8.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.8.15

    Stocks look modestly higher pre-market.  Royal Dutch $69.6B merger (see below) talk of trading desks.  AA kicks off Q1 earnings after the close, street looking for $0.26 (Implied volatility says 4.75% range expected).  Fairly slow action in the options world yesterday as ~12.7 million contracts change hands.  SPX with 675K, VIX with ~335K, RUT 48K.  Rahm Emanuel wins Mayoral election in Chicago with 55.7% of vote. Volatility as an asset class: Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B)[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 7, 2015, 12:07 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.7.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.7.15

    Volatility as an asset class JPMorgan (JPM) is recently up 63c to $61.10 after being upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein. April call option implied volatility is at 23, May is at 18, June is at 17, September is at 18; compared to its 26-week average of 20. Carnival (CCL) is recently up $1.38 to $49.14 after being upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo. April call option implied volatility is at 23, May is at 22, July is at 21; compared its 26-week average of[...]

  • Market News | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 7, 2015, 8:03 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.7.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.7.15

    Markets corrected yesterday following the disappointing jobs report Friday - for the first hour - then rallied on "bad news is good news" with possible FED action. European shares higher this morning but remember most were closed for 4-day Easter holiday. FDX (see below) bidding for TNT interesting, as UPS was not allowed to buy TNT a few years ago due to monopoly fears.  Marty Kearney just wrapped up one-hour syndicated radio show on Stocks & Jocks, talked about FTSE options coming[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 6, 2015, 11:47 AM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.6.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.6.15

    Volatility as an asset class Gang of four overall option implied volatility: Amazon.com (AMZN) overall option implied volatility of 32 is compares to its 26-week average of 28. Apple (AAPL) overall option implied volatility of 28 is compares to its 26-week average of 27. Google (GOOG overall option implied volatility of 24 is compares to its 26-week average of 22. Facebook (FB) overall option implied volatility of 31 is compares to its 26-week average of 32. CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Education | Apr 6, 2015, 10:00 AM

    Key SPX & VIX Levels to Watch: Weekly Market Outlook

    Key SPX & VIX Levels to Watch: Weekly Market Outlook

    Despite the solid start to the trading week on Monday of last week, Tuesday's and Wednesday's dips cast a shadow of doubt on stocks.  Yes, the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) ended the holiday-shortened week with a small gain. But, once again the bulls have a big hurdle right in front of them they'll need to clear first before we can seriously entertain bullish ideas. We'll analyze the current shape of things below, after painting the bigger picture with some broad economic data brushstrokes. Economic[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Education | Apr 6, 2015, 7:52 AM

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.6.15

    Blogging Options: CBOE Morning Update 4.6.15

    First full trading day in US after abysmal Jobs print Friday.  S&P futures off 13, Russell by 10, DJIA futures lower by 120 points. Gold and Oil up, 10-year near 1.84%.  VIX futures volume on lighter-side in early session.  Much of European markets closed this morning, as Easter a 4-day weekend for many.  FED's Dudley with innocuous comments about FED's future actions, ISM Service Sector released later this morning.  Duke - Wisconsin tonight. Volatility as an asset class Euro[...]

  • Market News | Trader Talk | Apr 2, 2015, 9:11 AM

    Earnings Next Week - 4/6 - 4/10

    Earnings Next Week - 4/6 - 4/10

    Alcoa reports next week and even though the stock was booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average a few quarters ago traditionalists (old guys like me) still consider AA earnings the beginning of earnings season.  The calendar is light next week, but hold on to your hat, things are going to get busy soon. For newbies, the table below summarizes the last 12 quarters of stock price reactions to earnings reports with biggest rally, drop, average move, and what happened last quarter.

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Apr 1, 2015, 12:08 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.1.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 4.1.15

    Volatility as an asset class Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of American Airlines (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Continental (UAL) to Hold from Buy. It cut its price target for American to $58 from $78, for Delta to $50 from $60 and for United to $70 from $85 on concerns international sales will disappoint over the next few quarters. Analysts at Deutsche expect the combination of a strong U.S. dollar, capacity increases by non-US airlines and decelerating global GDP growth to pressure the[...]

  • VIX | Blogging Options | Trader Talk | Mar 31, 2015, 12:15 PM

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.31.15

    CBOE Mid-Day Update 3.31.15

    Volatility as an asset class Charter Communications (CHTR) is recently up $13.28 to $196.67 after announcing that it will acquire Bright House Networks for $10.4B. April call option implied volatility is at 24, May is at 27, June is at 26; compared to its 26-week average of 25. Movado Group (MOV) is recently up $3.73 to $29.36 after the fine watch reported Q4 profits significantly surpassed analysts' consensus estimates. April call option implied volatility is at 36, May is at 30, June is at 33;[...]