Weekend Review - Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 9/12 - 9/16

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 25, 2017, 9:00 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/19/2017 - 6/23/2017

    VXST was slightly higher while the rest of the SPX related volatility indexes dropped last week.  All moves were relatively small as we have truly entered the summer doldrums, at least for broad based index volatility. There’s very little exciting on the table below.  TYVIX bumped up slightly, but is still at very low levels.  VVIX remaining over 80.00 is interesting as traders may continue to take advantage low VIX to get long volatility exposure through buying calls or spreads[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 24, 2017, 7:13 PM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 6/19/2017 - 6/23/2017

    VIX was a bit lower to end the week and the curve moved down as well.   We retired June last week and now July is the front month and is at a premium of just over 1.80 to finish the week.  Before getting into a trade I would like to point out some heavy activity that abounded last week in the VIX Weekly options expiring this coming week.  There was a pretty big buyer of the VIX Jun 28th 19, 20, and 21 Calls paying 0.10 for the 19’s and 0.05 for both the 20’s and[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 24, 2017, 6:55 PM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/19/2017 - 6/23/2017

    The Russell 2000 (RUT) was up by 0.57% last week while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) gained only 0.23%.  For the year RUT is now up 4.25% while RUI has gained 8.84% as large cap stocks continue to dominate 2017 after the huge outperformance of small cap stocks from election day to the end of 2016.  On Monday RVX closed below 14.00 for the first time in years.  Finishing the day at 13.89 was also a 2017 low for RVX (kind of makes sense if we haven't been below 14.00 for[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 17, 2017, 2:09 PM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 6/12/2017 - 6/16/2017

    VIX gave volatility bulls a little hope on Monday rising to the highest intra-day level since VIX was receding from the news flow that followed the firing of Comey by Donald Trump in the middle of May.  However, as is the norm, VIX dropped and worked lower with the curve following in suit. As Monday was the only day of real strength for VIX and the June VIX futures.  One trader took advantage of that by selling an out of the money call spread.  Late Monday as VIX was near 11.65 and[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 17, 2017, 2:01 PM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/12/2017 - 6/16/2017

    As the week came to a close VXST which measures 9-day volatility expectations took a dive.  Hence the big drop on the left side of the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT diagram below.  TYVIX finished the week below 4.00 which was a first for 2017, but not outside of the long term historical range.  I checked the market expectations for the next FOMC meeting in late July and right now we have a 100% chance of nothing happening.  That much certainty probably justifies[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Jun 17, 2017, 1:56 PM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/12/2017 - 6/16/2017

    Small cap stocks lost some of the recently gained ground relative to large cap stocks last week.   The Russell 2000 (RUT) was down over 1% while the large cap focused Russell 1000 (RUI) was up slightly.  The spread of RUI to RUT out performance for 2017 has now widened to almost 5%. Despite the tough week for small cap stocks the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) finished Friday at a 2017 low.  This lower relative level for RVX pushed the RVX to VIX ratio to the lowest[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 10, 2017, 6:44 PM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 6/5/2017 - 6/9/2017

    VIX was higher by about 10% last week, but that did not have much of an impact on the rest of the term structure.  The futures were mixed which can be attributed to just how steep the VIX curve was going into the week.  Before things turned to the upside on Friday we experienced the lowest level for VIX since 1993.  The table below ranks the lowest inter-day lows for VIX since 1990.  Note Friday ranks 6th and 4 of the 10 on the list occurred this year.  A couple of bullish[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 10, 2017, 6:39 PM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 6/5/2017 - 6/9/2017

    That little bump in VXST that shows up on the far left side of the diagram below can be attributed to Friday afternoon activity.  VXST rose 0.75 Friday while VIX was up 0.54.  Shorter dated SPX option pricing is used to calculate VXST than VIX.  It may be the weakness Friday afternoon in large cap tech stocks may have traders worrying about the direction of the stock market over the short term.  Several things pop out at me on the table below.  VMAX had a nice week rising[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 10, 2017, 6:31 PM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 6/5/2017 - 6/9/2017

    Small cap stocks prevailed last week as the Russell 2000 (RUT) gained over 1% while the Russell 1000 (RUI) was lower by about 1/3 of 1%.  Large cap stocks still hold a lead over small caps in 2017, but the Russell 2000 has kept pace with the Russell 1000 since the end of the first quarter so all the large cap outperformance may be attributed to the first three months of 2017.  On the volatility front VIX and the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) rose last week, with the relative[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 3, 2017, 8:31 PM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/30/2017 - 6/2/2017

    The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT week over week curve change only has one noticeable move.  VXST was up nicely last week, but we are going to attribute the whole move to the 3 day weekend effect and say the curve was basically unchanged.  The long volatility funds drifted down and short volatility ruled the week with SVXY rising 2% and relative newcomer VMIN gaining 2.2% last week.  Worth noting below is VVIX which remains above 80.00 despite VIX closing for the second[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Jun 3, 2017, 7:40 PM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 5/30/2017 - 6/2/2017

    VIX dropped slightly as the S&P 500 powered to more all-time highs last week.  The slight drop in VIX can be attributed to the already extremely low level that it closed last week.  The futures all dropped a little as well, which may be more about moving along in time than lower volatility expectations.  VIX closed under 10.00 more times this year than any other year in history.  The average for VIX is historically low as well in 2017.  So, why is the short VIX trade[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 28, 2017, 9:36 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/22/2017 - 5/26/2017

    VXST closed Friday at an all-time low of 7.60 which sounds impressive until you hear that for VXST the history we have to work with only goes back to 2011.  I am going to make a bold prediction and say that VXST will move higher when the market reopens on Tuesday.  Read that as sarcasm as VXST has never followed a three-day weekend without moving higher.  After having a short period of upward movement, the VIX related funds gave back performance and then some last week.  The[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 28, 2017, 8:40 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 5/22/2017 - 5/26/2017

    VIX finished the week at 9.81, just a tad above the post 2008 lows put in earlier this month.  The June 2017 VIX cycle is five weeks long so there’s still plenty of time until June 21st expiration.  The result is one of the steepest curves a can recall in the six years of posting these weekend blogs.  Friday, about an hour into the trading day, there was an interesting bull put spread executed in the VIX pit.  With VIX at 9.80 and the June 7th VIX Future at 10.80 someone[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 27, 2017, 12:56 PM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 5/22/2017 - 5/26/2017

    Large cap dominance continued last week as the Russell 1000 (RUI) gained 1.41% last week outdoing the Russell 2000 (RUT) performance of 1.09%.  For the year RUI is just a little under 6% ahead of RUT. With VIX finishing the week below 10.00 the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) level relative to VIX is at high levels.  That is really more of a function of low volatility across the board, but continued underperformance of small caps is probably a contributing factor as well. [...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | May 21, 2017, 5:55 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 5/15/2017 - 5/19/2017

    The week over week VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve moved higher and appears to have done so in a very parallel fashion.  Since the week over week change doesn’t do the actual activity justice so I added the Wednesday closing curve to the graphic below.  I was honestly a little surprised at how little the S&P 500 dropped on a week over week basis and double checked the number.  I made a joking prediction Thursday morning that we would retrace the Trump Dump[...]