VIX Archives - CBOE Blogs

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 21, 2017, 9:51 AM

    Short Some Shares and Call Me in the Morning

    Who wants to buy high and sell low?  Why would anyone buy calls before the closing bell and sell them to someone for half price the next morning when the opening bell rings?  When would anyone feel okay about buying for 88 cents and then selling for 45?  Answer: When the calls are just a wrapper, a box designed to keep something else safe while in transit, like a shoe box protects the merchandise on the delivery truck so that your purchase isn't thrown on the porch one shoe at a time[...]

  • VIX | French Election | Apr 19, 2017, 4:55 PM

    A Case of Volatility Futures Leading an Index

    The first round of the French Election occurs this coming weekend and the implied volatility of broad based options in Europe is taking notice.  The European version of VIX is VSTOXX which is based on Euro Stoxx 50 Index options.  Today VSTOXX closed over 24.00 as Euro Stoxx 50 options are pricing in high volatility over the next few weeks in anticipation of the market’s reaction to the French Election.  The VSTOXX futures market also (correctly) anticipated a rise in VSTOXX[...]

  • VIX | French Election | Apr 11, 2017, 7:43 PM

    How I Know the US Market is Waking Up to the French Election

    I was discussing the current state of the markets with a trader today and noted that VIX is perking up based on the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming French election.  He challenged me on this and said the geopolitical situation had more to do with the recent rise in VIX, not the French election.  I know I’m right and the picture below proves it.  Above is a depiction of the at the money implied volatility for SPX options expiring each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 9, 2017, 10:32 AM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 4/3/2017 - 4/7/2017

    An emerging theme in 2017 is that when stocks come under pressure the Russell 2000 (RUT) seems to take it on the chin a bit more than the Russell 1000 (RUI).  Last week the large cap focused RUI was lower by 0.33% while RUT lost just over 1.5%.  This widens the lead that RUI has on RUT to about 4.5% for 2017.  With small caps leading stocks lower the relative level of small cap volatility remains high compared to large cap volatility.  The best way to measure this is the CBOE[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Apr 9, 2017, 10:29 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 4/3/2017 - 4/7/2017

    When there is not a whole lot going on to impact the financial markets we can get fixated on different topics.  Maybe that is what is going on with me and the French Election process.  The steep difference between VXST and VIX on the chart below may reflect the time frame being measured by VXST being just short of the pending rise in implied volatility that is expected in front of round one of the election in a couple of weeks.  It will be interesting to see if we get a relative rise[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | French Election | Apr 8, 2017, 1:05 PM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 4/3/2017 - 4/7/2017

    The S&P 500 lost about 0.3% last week and VIX rose.  I think the VIX to S&P 500 relationship is only part of the story related to VIX rising last week.  It appears the pending election process in France is starting to influence US volatility.  Note that April is a bit higher than May volatility in the orange circle on the chart below.  This is a fairly rare occurrence for the futures considering the current low level of VIX.  As long as there is a cloud of uncertainty[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | French Election | Apr 4, 2017, 3:11 PM

    VIX, VSTOXX, and the French Election

    About a year ago, we were all starting to focus on the Brexit referendum which we ‘knew’ wasn’t going to pass.  There were several lessons from the Brexit experience with the top one being do not discount an election until all the votes are counted.  This played out again in November, but that’s not what this blog is about.  This blog is about how VSTOXX and VIX are behaving in front of the pending French election process.  First, going back to June 2016[...]

  • Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 3/27 - 3/31

    The Friday to Friday change in the VIX term structure was as orderly as I’ve seen it in some time.  VIX has had a lower average daily close during a quarter only once, the fourth quarter of 2006.  However, the low to high range for VIX has never been tighter than what we experienced in the first quarter of 2017 with the range of 2.54.  On average the range of closing VIX prices is about 10.60 so the VIX market may be a bit wound up to the point where a big move to the upside[...]

  • VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | French Election | Apr 2, 2017, 9:50 AM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/27 - 3/31

    The shift lower in the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve was 75% parallel and 25% dramatic.  The dramatic move was at the shorter end of the curve where VXST dropped 28% moving from a premium to discount relative to VIX.  As noted volatility was lower across the board.  Of interest below, VVIX finished below 80 and TYVIX remained at very low levels. For the volatility bulls the only glimmer of hope is SKEW around 140, but it is pretty difficult to get excited about[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Strategy | Trade Ideas | Mar 26, 2017, 9:31 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Futures and Options - 3/20 - 3/24

    VIX reached 2017 highs last week as we got our first experience with downside volatility in 2017.  VIX closing at 13.12 widens the low to high range for the first quarter to 2.54.  Barring a close of 13.26 on the upside or 10.44 on the downside next week this will go down as the narrowest VIX range on record.  We continue to look to our friends in Europe for volatility guidance.  After the Dutch election results VSTOXX had the biggest one day drop on record.  Equity market[...]

  • Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 3/13 - 3/17

    We got a pretty orderly shift down in the VIX curve last week as the market easily digested a rate hike by the FOMC.  Also, the March premium to spot VIX at about 0.50 is pretty narrow, however the April premium remains a bit wide based on pending events in Europe.  We have been paying attention to the VSTOXX term structure due to market concerns about the pending French election.  It appears the Dutch results pushed spot VSTOXX lower, in fact the reaction was the biggest one day[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Mar 12, 2017, 2:04 PM

    Weekend Review of Volatility Indexes and ETPs - 3/6 - 3/10

    The short end of the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve moved up while the longer end hardly budged.  TYVIX is at 2017 lows going into FOMC week, but it appears equity volatility may be pricing in some uncertainty in front of this week’s Fed decision.  Needless to say and already mentioned, VXST is the big attention getter on the table below with a 24% gain last week.  The Ten-Year futures dropped more in front of higher rates, but note that TYVIX, which closed[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Mar 12, 2017, 11:40 AM

    Weekend Review of VIX Options and Futures - 3/6 - 3/10

    VIX was higher and all VIX futures were lower last week.  We have been in a pretty steep state of contango which flattened a bit.  However, there are expectations that April will remain elevated due to market conditions in Europe.  This will be explained a little more below. The VSTOXX term structure appears below and note the elevated April futures contract price relative to the spot index (it’s impossible to miss).  This shape has been around for a while now and we’ll[...]

  • Technical Analysis & Charts | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Mar 12, 2017, 10:47 AM

    Weekend Review of Russell 2000 Options and Volatility - 3/6 - 3/10

    Last week small cap stocks took it on the chin with the Russell 2000 (RUT) dropping about 2.5% while the Russell 1000 (RUI) actually gained about 0.7%.  The divergence between the two widened to over 5% with RUI in the lead for 2017.  VIX gained a bit last week which narrowed the gap between the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) and VIX to around 40%.  This is low by 2017 standards, but still pretty high relative to the long-term history of these two indexes.  The[...]

  • Market News | VIX | Trader Talk | Trade Ideas | Mar 6, 2017, 3:37 PM

    Tales from the Cross VIX Highway

    While traders of nothing but the Essenpee would find themselves sitting on a gain of 1.5% to nearly 2% from February 14th through today (or through Friday, March 3rd's closing price, thus the difference between quotes), traders like me who favor TVIX or UVXY would be sitting right where they started, whether short or long. See chart below for a short history of UVXY over the last nearly-three-weeks. My account performance shows a gain of several percent. How did I do that, when trading nothing[...]